Lightning WAVE 2 Emails Coming 1/19 For Ordering on 1/20 – Per Ford Customer Service

[Nick Gerteis]

It isn't just trims, it is quantity. Take rate on 1 wave determine how many are left for the following waves.

But doesn’t everybody have til the end of March to order, regardless of which invitation wave they were in? I agree the take rate right after wave opens will give Ford a good idea, but certainly not 100%.

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[SteffanG]

You're joking right??? Do you want it delivered to your driveway too ???

Well that would be nice ?

It is true though, if you ordered in the first 2 or 3 hours which means you would likely fall in the first 10k reservations, why should you have to wait until next year just because you chose a dealer that has a lot of early reservations? Some people that reserved days later are getting to order only because the dealer they chose has no early reservations at it.

 

[theblunden]

Well that would be nice ?

It is true though, if you ordered in the first 2 or 3 hours which means you would likely fall in the first 10k reservations, why should you have to wait until next year just because you chose a dealer that has a lot of early reservations? Some people that reserved days later are getting to order only because the dealer they chose has no early reservations at it.

This is what happens because Ford is on a dealer system. They can't go by reservation number because the dealer system rewards dealers that sell vehicles. If all of the reservations were in the middle of Idaho that would punish all other dealers it is what it is there's nothing we can do and I hope you get your reservation converted to order soon

 

[sotek2345]

But doesn’t everybody have til the end of March to order, regardless of which invitation wave they were in? I agree the take rate right after wave opens will give Ford a good idea, but certainly not 100%.

I think so (not sure to be honest). I know if I got an invite I wouldn't wait to convert - at least not past the next wave. You could end up not only missing out on the trim you want, but any truck at all.

 

[pstansel]

FWIW my dealer swears they don't know next week's allotment. We shall see.

 

[SteffanG]

I just emailed my dealer today and he said they are meeting with ford next week to find out how many they are getting to convert to orders (I am in Canada which seems to operate differently than the US)

 

[vandy1981]

This is what happens because Ford is on a dealer system. They can't go by reservation number because the dealer system rewards dealers that sell vehicles. If all of the reservations were in the middle of Idaho that would punish all other dealers it is what it is there's nothing we can do and I hope you get your reservation converted to order soon

The fairest model would have left the dealers out of it until the order invites came in. The customer could then choose which dealer they wanted to work with. The crappy dealers (ADM, poor communication) would lose out and the good dealers would get more orders.

 

[Deleted member 9341]

I know this is very rough math. If Ford has 200,000 reservations for the lightning, and it can produce 20,000 this year, then I think it's reasonable to assume that 10% of my dealership's reservations will have an opportunity order a 2022. My dealer has 700+ reservations, but at the time I first checked with them, they said I was 14/667. I would be blown away with disappointment if they didn't get at least 66 allocated for 2022.

So for my dealership, I would expect they would receive about 10 per wave, meaning I would land in wave #3. (I'm still pissed that I'm somehow 14/667, when I reserved at the very beginning of the presentation).

The only reason I'm anxious to be in Wave 2 instead of Wave 3, is because I think there will be some configurations that will sell out or be delayed, and so being one of the early orders will be very beneficial in those instances.

My plan is to order a Lariat + ER. It's funny, with how ridiculous it is to spend $80,000 on a pickup that isn't a super duty or raptor, it would maybe just say YOLO and grab the Platinum instead, if it weren't for the $80k tax credit cap.

Just take the reservations quoted by your dealer with a grain of salt. The sales manager at my dealer told me they had 100 and literally 2 minutes later a salesman he transferred me too told me they had almost 30. Further eroding what little credibility a dealer has to begin with. Comical, yet pathetic at the same time.

As others have said I would also expect a a good number of reservation holders to bail out once they saw how $$ it ended up being based on what most people seem to be saying on these forums.

 

[Deleted member 9341]

Well that would be nice ?

It is true though, if you ordered in the first 2 or 3 hours which means you would likely fall in the first 10k reservations, why should you have to wait until next year just because you chose a dealer that has a lot of early reservations? Some people that reserved days later are getting to order only because the dealer they chose has no early reservations at it.

Nobody saying you can’t change dealers….as many many people have

 

[astricklin]

I think so (not sure to be honest). I know if I got an invite I wouldn't wait to convert - at least not past the next wave. You could end up not only missing out on the trim you want, but any truck at all.

I'm honestly at a point where I'm willing to wait. I'd like to get more info on the Silverado (although I don't think it will come before the end of this summer). I'd like to know what the Ford Options financing is going to look like and currently there's only a payment estimator for traditional financing. I'd like to see if they are going to offer more/different options or colors (race red) for 2023.

 

[SmoothJ]

I'm honestly at a point where I'm willing to wait. I'd like to get more info on the Silverado (although I don't think it will come before the end of this summer). I'd like to know what the Ford Options financing is going to look like and currently there's only a payment estimator for traditional financing. I'd like to see if they are going to offer more/different options or colors (race red) for 2023.

Basically you would take the full amount, and take 44-50% of that (thats the depreciation). One side will be the balloon payment, and the other side you would finance 36 -48 months at say 5% interest.

The depreciation can vary on term and mileage, however I was told that the Mach-E is 44-50%. The F150 should do better, but I don’t have those numbers.

 

[uniblab]

I'm honestly at a point where I'm willing to wait. I'd like to get more info on the Silverado (although I don't think it will come before the end of this summer).

I'm willing to wait also... it's mostly my fault as I didn't reserve until three days after opening and I am therefore #156 out of 489 at my friendly local dealership.

I did have my reservation confirmed for a Silverado EV on Jan 5 at 12:03 (orders opened up at 12:00) so I should be very close to the front of the line for one of those if I can't get a Lightning by then. I want an electric pickup, dammit. And not a Rivian, it has too much Ridgeline in it for my taste.

 

[astricklin]

Basically you would take the full amount, and take 44-50% of that. One side will be the balloon payment, and the other side you would finance 36 -48 months at say 5% interest.

I have a feeling that the potential range for the residual is a lot greater than that. They could be 40-50% or they could be 60-70% and it could be anywhere between those based on trim and options as well. Looking at Bronco residuals may or may not be helpful. There's absolutely no equivalent to the lightning currently on the market so until there's a quoted residual it's hard to know.
When the leaf was first released there were very very low lease rates because the residual was totally unknown and it ended up being set fairly high. Turns out this was not the case and so currently, the lease rates on a leaf are significantly higher than 2013/2014.

 

[sotek2345]

I have a feeling that the potential range for the residual is a lot greater than that. They could be 40-50% or they could be 60-70% and it could be anywhere between those based on trim and options as well. Looking at Bronco residuals may or may not be helpful. There's absolutely no equivalent to the lightning currently on the market so until there's a quoted residual it's hard to know.
When the leaf was first released there were very very low lease rates because the residual was totally unknown and it ended up being set fairly high. Turns out this was not the case and so currently, the lease rates on a leaf are significantly higher than 2013/2014.

Residuals on the Mach-e are very low (about 34 percent for 4 years, 10,500 miles), but the Ford Options payment was still about $150 per month cheaper than traditional financing for 1.9 percent / 72 months.

Edit: this was for a Mach-e GT.

 

[SmoothJ]

I know we have the bits and pieces of this but do we know the complete residuals for the Mach-E?

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