Farley: F-150 Lightning production will increase to 150K units in the next year and receive chips priority

[MAhauler]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/for...c-pickup-could-win-first-mover-advantage.html

KEY POINTS

• Ford expects to increase production of the F-150 Lightning to 150,000 units in the next year or so, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.
• Ford Motor is set to be the first automaker to bring a mainstream, full-size electric pickup to the U.S. market.
• Other companies, specifically EV start-ups, have previously touted the electric pickup as a massive opportunity, but have so far failed to execute on a large scale.
• “In this market, being a first mover is a very, very important move,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told CNBC.

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[gorwell]

Literally the same thing that has been a headline for a while now

Key word to consider here is "to 150,000 units in the next year or so"

No doubts Ford is trying to do everything possible to increase production, but this statement really has no real timelines. Wouldn't expect things to really open up until ~2025 when their battery plan comes online.

Also Ford has been saying increased production every couple of months:

Jan 4 2022:

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...-f-150-lightning-production-150000-units.html

Ford Motor Company said today it is planning to nearly double production of the F-150 Lightning™ pickup at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn to 150,000 trucks per year

August 2021:

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...n-target-strong-pre-launch-demand-2021-08-23/


The No. 2 U.S. automaker is targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources,



One thing is nice to confirm is that Lightnings get Chip priority, which most of us wanted to believe was the case

 

[Sam James]

“In this market, being a first mover is a very, very important move,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told CNBC.

I can hear a million Stans crying, "Just wait until the Cybertruck becomes the best selling truck be the end of the decade!"

I've already seen that on Twitter once or twice today. I do not understand the cult.

 

[greenne]

"Up to 150,000 trucks per year" means Ford could produce 5,000 trucks from Jan 1- Dec 30 and then open up the new rouge expansion near the end of the year and still meet this goal.

Its fluff as a standalone goal.

I have heard Ford is planning on gradually ramping up production throughout the year and want to be able to be at 150k mid 2023.

However Farley is no dummy, he's very careful about what he says as a "done deal".

The article carries the theme that 150k is the number they want to produce...I *think* Farley was referencing the rate which has been reported as 150K for some time now.

 

[greenne]

I can hear a million Stans crying, "Just wait until the Cybertruck becomes the best selling truck be the end of the decade!"

I've already seen that on Twitter once or twice today. I do not understand the cult.

Me neither. I also do not understand Tesla's long term strategy. Does Elon really think he can remain the #1 Ev maker with just the Model 3, Model y, Model X and possibly Cybertruck in their portfolio?

Most Teslas are getting old design wise and they have NOTHING to compete with the upcoming EV Explorer, Suburban, Tahoe, (and countless other mid-full size SUV/trucks) which you know are coming.

I just don't see how Tesla can compete without expansion into other segments. My guess is Elon is inflating the stock as much as he can before he sells out or jumps ship...

 

[Vorador]

Me neither. I also do not understand Tesla's long term strategy. Does Elon really think he can remain the #1 Ev maker with just the Model 3, Model y, Model X and possibly Cybertruck in their portfolio?

Most Teslas are getting old design wise and they have NOTHING to compete with the upcoming EV Explorer, Suburban, Tahoe, (and countless other mid-full size SUV/trucks) which you know are coming.

I just don't see how Tesla can compete without expansion into other segments. My guess is Elon is inflating the stock as much as he can before he sells out or jumps ship...

The big advantage Tesla still has is they expand their charging network as demand for their cars increases. The same can't be said about every other manufacturer. Once Ford, GM, VW, Hyundai and KIA start selling hundreds of thousands of EVs every year, the lines at EA chargers are going to be ridiculous.

 

[Oneand0]

I read this and immediately saw a smack down on Rivian! They were the first to deliver, but that’s about it. I think it’s great hearing things like this. Everyone is throwing their hat in and in a few years competition will be real. But, Ford will be the first to put a lot of them on the road. I cannot see Rivian ramping up enough to keep up with Ford this year alone, truck for truck.

 

[greenne]

I read this and immediately saw a smack down on Rivian! They were the first to deliver, but that’s about it. I think it’s great hearing things like this. Everyone is throwing their hat in and in a few years competition will be real. But, Ford will be the first to put a lot of them on the road. I cannot see Rivian ramping up enough to keep up with Ford this year alone, truck for truck.

I like Rivian a lot and think they have done an amazing job as a start up. The quality I have seen from Rivian is much better than Tesla..even in their infancy as a company. I believe they will always have a niche market(unless Ford introduces a Raptor EV).

Ford is going after the general pickup truck market and will have great success. Ford and GM can scale up in a way that is impossible for a startup and even very difficult for Tesla(if they actually got serious about pickups). I think Ford is doing a better job...I think GM botched the Silverado by making it too much like the Avalanche and not focusing on what truck customers really want-- dependability, reliability, familiarity. Give me something I'm comfortable with.. like and old friend that just happens to be electric.

 

[greenne]

I read this and immediately saw a smack down on Rivian! They were the first to deliver, but that’s about it. I think it’s great hearing things like this. Everyone is throwing their hat in and in a few years competition will be real. But, Ford will be the first to put a lot of them on the road. I cannot see Rivian ramping up enough to keep up with Ford this year alone, truck for truck.

I see Rivian being more of competition for Jeep and/or possibly a Ranger vs competing against the Lightning.

 

[beatle]

Me neither. I also do not understand Tesla's long term strategy. Does Elon really think he can remain the #1 Ev maker with just the Model 3, Model y, Model X and possibly Cybertruck in their portfolio?

Most Teslas are getting old design wise and they have NOTHING to compete with the upcoming EV Explorer, Suburban, Tahoe, (and countless other mid-full size SUV/trucks) which you know are coming.

I just don't see how Tesla can compete without expansion into other segments. My guess is Elon is inflating the stock as much as he can before he sells out or jumps ship...

I agree that diversification helps grab market share, but just crossovers and pickups get you 63% of the market:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-demand-by-vehicle-type/

(No wonder I'm so bored with the car market since everything is a crossover, but I digress.) Also, the Model X is the same size as the Explorer. A lot of the "midsize SUVs" you refer to are probably classified as crossovers since they are all car based.

 

[RavenYZF-R6]

I like Rivian a lot and think they have done an amazing job as a start up. The quality I have seen from Rivian is much better than Tesla..even in their infancy as a company. I believe they will always have a niche market(unless Ford introduces a Raptor EV).

Ford is going after the general pickup truck market and will have great success. Ford and GM can scale up in a way that is impossible for a startup and even very difficult for Tesla(if they actually got serious about pickups). I think Ford is doing a better job...I think GM botched the Silverado by making it too much like the Avalanche and not focusing on what truck customers really want-- dependability, reliability, familiarity. Give me something I'm comfortable with.. like and old friend that just happens to be electric.

Rivian will have a niche market until Toyota comes out with an EV Tacoma. They will be the after the same market for the most part. I will most likely get rid of my Lightning when they do since it’s price should be better than the Rivian by a fair margin.

 

[greenne]

I agree that diversification helps grab market share, but just crossovers and pickups get you 63% of the market:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-demand-by-vehicle-type/

(No wonder I'm so bored with the car market since everything is a crossover, but I digress.) Also, the Model X is the same size as the Explorer. A lot of the "midsize SUVs" you refer to are probably classified as crossovers since they are all car based.

The crossover segment is kind of a catchall and covers a wide range of vehicles(small to large) with 2-3 rows. Tesla will not come close..no matter how many Model Ys and Model Xs they sell. I would also argue the Model X is too premium(and too pricey) for a the vast majority of this segment..so you are really left with the Model Y carrying most of the sales.

I just don't see Tesla remaining a major player once VW, Ford, GM, Toyota and others step up their game.

(example) Would many people choose a Model Y over an EV version of a Toyota Rav4 or a CrV EV if it were available?

 

[Pioneer74]

"Up to 150,000 trucks per year" means Ford could produce 5,000 trucks from Jan 1- Dec 30 and then open up the new rouge expansion near the end of the year and still meet this goal.

Its fluff as a standalone goal.

There is talk of eliminating a shift in the ICE Final plant after July shutdown and moving the people over to the Lightning plant. You don't do that for "fluff".

 

[FlasherZ]

I just don't see Tesla remaining a major player once VW, Ford, GM, Toyota and others step up their game.

(example) Would many people choose a Model Y over an EV version of a Toyota Rav4 or a CrV EV if it were available?

The answer to your question is a resounding "yes" unless Toyota or Honda get better design thinking into the platform. Having driven Tesla cars for 9 1/2 years and 350,000 miles, I can tell you that there is a lot of design thinking that goes into the platform - and that just isn't there on Toyota or Honda.

Since 2013, people have been saying your first quote "just wait until VW becomes a major player" or "just wait until Toyota becomes a major player".

And, as a person who doesn't own a non-EV capable of reasonable daily driving, my observation is that Ford is the only company that has demonstrated the combination of customer knowledge and scale that will be required. I've looked at VW, Kia, Fiat, GM, Rivian, and many other companies jumping onto the EV bandwagon, and if I were Tesla, I'd only be scared of Ford right now with VW coming on the horizon for the next 3 years.

But I think it does say something that I plan to replace my Model S + my old Rusty short-cab, long-bed diesel F-250 with my new Lightning this summer. The Cybertruck is a bit of a folly (designed by a 7-year-old, it seems), and Tesla is spending way too much time chasing FSD robotaxis and not improving its core product.

 

[greenne]

There is talk of eliminating a shift in the ICE Final plant after July shutdown and moving the people over to the Lightning plant. You don't do that for "fluff".

I said its "fluff" as a standalone goal. My point is the way it is worded Ford could literally produce 1,000 trucks next year, and still say they are producing at a "rate" of 150k/yr on Dec 31. Without a time scale attached(or additional context) its meaningless by itself.

I don't believe that is Ford's intention--and other news outlets have confirmed Ford's commitment to EVs--I'm just saying the reporting is a bit disingenious talking about a production rate vs production units(numbers). The report makes this one statistic to be a bigger deal than it really is if you look at what it actually says.

A much better statistic would be how many EVs Ford intends to produce next year in raw numbers, not a rate.

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