Ford EV Tax Credits May Run Out Sooner Than Expected

[greenne]

If it’s a close one by 9/30 and they have half a brain, they will delay delivery of a few thousand vehicles to 10/1 just to keep the credit for another quarter. I think Tesla did just that when they were in this situation a couple years ago.

That would be a smart strategy to employ(if they are close). We'll get an idea when the first Q3 numbers roll out in early Aug. If they are say close 5-6K Ford has a chance, if they are close to 8-10K...forget it.

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[ExCivilian]

Which is why we need an EV point of sale credit for vehicles under $40k and families with income under the national median.

Any EV credit for a luxury vehicle makes no sense. The world changed since the credit was put in place, the government needs to change the credit. It doesn't need to be a simple no or yes either, let's refine the credit to spark development of affordable EVs.

It's not intended to be a benefit for consumers--low-income or otherwise. It's an indirect $1.5billion dollars to the manufacturers without Congress explicitly stating they're giving everyone $1.5B to make EVs.

It's one of the reasons Tesla (and Ford, as well, most likely) did what they did to get another quarter of sales from it. I don't think anyone is sitting in the back offices of these customers worrying about which or how many customers are getting the tax benefit so long as every unit they produce is sold.

 

[sotek2345]

That would be a smart strategy to employ(if they are close). We'll get an idea when the first Q3 numbers roll out in early Aug. If they are say close 5-6K Ford has a chance, if they are close to 8-10K...forget it.

For should be doing 10k+ per month pretty easily, so they would hit the limit in mid August.

Mach-e was 11k for Q2 and that includes a stop sale for a bit. So call that 4k per month.

Lightning is running around 2k per month and accelerating. Probably closer to 3k in Q3. You will also have some of the demo units delivered in Q3.

E-transit is a few hundred to 1k per month.

Then you have the plug in hybrids from Ford and Lincoln.

 

[FordLightningMan]

It's not intended to be a benefit for consumers--low-income or otherwise. It's an indirect $1.5billion dollars to the manufacturers without Congress explicitly stating they're giving everyone $1.5B to make EVs.

It's one of the reasons Tesla (and Ford, as well, most likely) did what they did to get another quarter of sales from it. I don't think anyone is sitting in the back offices of these customers worrying about which or how many customers are getting the tax benefit so long as every unit they produce is sold.

I'm well aware of the reason the current incentive exists. I am also aware the return on more expensive vehicles is largely better, due to more room to boost margins. The incentive that exists, it did its part, and to a lesser extent continues to do its part for automakers slow to transition. Tesla took great advantage of the credit selling luxury and unique EVs, then they became the most valuable automaker in the world.

In 2022 and beyond, the tax credit as originally written doesn't make sense to extend. Automakers got their stimulus to move into EV, on a subsidized basis they've developed their EV platforms and tech. The tax incentive as provided today does nothing to fix the problem of moving EV to lower income buyers. Yes this was not the issue 5 years ago, but it is the issue today. If the credit is really about the long term goal of reducing carbon emissions, it needs to change to provide incentive where emissions aren't being reduced. This is the low cost automobile space, where maybe the government needs to further subsidize development of EVs that are both affordable and desirable. If the credit isn't going to change, I'm happy it is being phased out, luxury EVs have multi-year backlogs and no incentive is needed. Tesla is absolute proof the credit should be phased out, they've been without the tax incentive for years, and continue to post fantastic results.

 

[ExCivilian]

No program is going to get EVs into low-income buyers' hands--unless we're going to subsidize trading in a $3K beater for a $30K EV...and then pass laws requiring apartment complexes build out charge stalls and use government money to rebuild all of those high density living arrangements to even have parking. Then we'll build out massive, locked parking garages so people can charge safely in the inner-cities...

...just speaking from experience as someone who grew up sometimes homeless and always hungry before a sequence of relatively unique life events drastically altered my life chances differently from my background. $30K isn't a low-income car, $20K isn't a low-income car, $10K isn't even a low-income car...but that's about the point where a low-income earner starts to dream about one day having such a nice car. When a 20 year old asian import for under $10K is a "luxury" item to be aspired to the discussion around EVs isn't much different than talking about relocating to Mars and about as achievable.

In a conversation where people are buying $80K vehicles this might seem unimaginable but I'm also not so blind to think I'm the only one here who may have grown up in abject poverty with drastically different chances as an adult than we had as children, maybe even you're one of those people and are aware of what I'm describing, but I don't see any realistic way to get EVs into the hands of low-income earners. For that to work, we'd need a bottom-up approach to building cities and the only place I know of that was able to do that in the US was Irvine, CA and it's certainly not designed for low-income people, either.

I hope that once we reach a certain saturation levels of EV uptake proponents will finally feel comfortable talking about the realities of moving our entire nation's transportation to alternative fuels instead of only speaking aspirationally about everyone driving EVs (which is never going to happen and shouldn't, for that matter).

 

[TaxmanHog]

The numbers below are real and predicted production, yes we know that sales to retail customers are what is counted when it comes to determining when phase out starts, but these numbers give us perspective.

It is also presumed the DEMO units are sellable after 10/1/2022, all production is sold to retail, ramping up is linear for prediction purposes, but reality may be that plant capacity will increment in small & large steps as resources, facilities and staffing permit more production, that is a lot if's and maybe's.

I just hope they don't hold my 6/9 blend until first week of September, as they are holding many Q2 build like @Labs4Lightning 4/20 blend until now!!!!

Keep the production and delivery chain moving and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

According to https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml Ford has not yet the 200,000 mark.

*Disclaimer:
Updated 7/7/2022

Just in case someone thinks it's real time. I'm not sure what the update frequency is.

 

[Maquis]

No program is going to get EVs into low-income buyers' hands--unless we're going to subsidize trading in a $3K beater for a $30K EV...and then pass laws requiring apartment complexes build out charge stalls and use government money to rebuild all of those high density living arrangements to even have parking. Then we'll build out massive, locked parking garages so people can charge safely in the inner-cities...

...just speaking from experience as someone who grew up sometimes homeless and always hungry before a sequence of relatively unique life events drastically altered my life chances differently from my background. $30K isn't a low-income car, $20K isn't a low-income car, $10K isn't even a low-income car...but that's about the point where a low-income earner starts to dream about one day having such a nice car. When a 20 year old asian import for under $10K is a "luxury" item to be aspired to the discussion around EVs isn't much different than talking about relocating to Mars and about as achievable.

In a conversation where people are buying $80K vehicles this might seem unimaginable but I'm also not so blind to think I'm the only one here who may have grown up in abject poverty with drastically different chances as an adult than we had as children, maybe even you're one of those people and are aware of what I'm describing, but I don't see any realistic way to get EVs into the hands of low-income earners. For that to work, we'd need a bottom-up approach to building cities and the only place I know of that was able to do that in the US was Irvine, CA and it's certainly not designed for low-income people, either.

I hope that once we reach a certain saturation levels of EV uptake proponents will finally feel comfortable talking about the realities of moving our entire nation's transportation to alternative fuels instead of only speaking aspirationally about everyone driving EVs (which is never going to happen and shouldn't, for that matter).

We’ll put….I remember almost having a heart attack the first time I bought a used car that was over $1,000!

 

[KniceHit]

The numbers below are real and predicted production, yes we know that sales to retail customers are what is counted when it comes to determining when phase out starts, but these numbers give us perspective.

It is also presumed the DEMO units are sellable after 10/1/2022, all production is sold to retail, ramping up is linear for prediction purposes, but reality may be that plant capacity will increment in small & large steps as resources, facilities and staffing permit more production, that is a lot if's and maybe's.

I just hope they don't hold my 6/9 blend until first week of September, as they are holding many Q2 build like @Labs4Lightning 4/20 blend until now!!!!

Keep the production and delivery chain moving and let the chips fall where they may.

Is there some kind of form or certificate that the dealer should be giving us? I didn't receive anything from my dealer.

 

[FlasherZ]

Is there some kind of form or certificate that the dealer should be giving us? I didn't receive anything from my dealer.

No. You will file a specific IRS form (8936) for the tax credit and list the VIN and date of purchase, along with the claimed credit. If you get audited, the agent will ask for proof that you purchased it and put it into service on the date you're claiming.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml has the dates for which the full, half, and quarter credits are available for particular models.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Is there some kind of form or certificate that the dealer should be giving us? I didn't receive anything from my dealer.

No. You will file a specific IRS form (8936) for the tax credit and list the VIN and date of purchase, along with the claimed credit. If you get audited, the agent will ask for proof that you purchased it and put it into service on the date you're claiming.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml has the dates for which the full, half, and quarter credits are available for particular models.

What he said

 

[Texas Dan]

Keep the production and delivery chain moving and let the chips fall where they may.

This is a very interesting table. Can you provide a link so we can track in real time? If you made this table yourself, where did you get the numbers from?

 

[TaxmanHog]

This is a very interesting table. Can you provide a link so we can track in real time? If you made this table yourself, where did you get the numbers from?

I created it based on reports of the initial production of DEMO truck, then added the count of each weeks window sticker maximum volume, example for the week of 8/1 we have 812 units being built.
The growth rate is a prediction to achieve a set number for the year, speculation is 15-20K

 

[detroitlightning]

Might be back in play…

No idea how this will work in terms of automakers that have exhausted their credits, I don’t think any details are out, but this rumored bill that manchin has signed off on apparently includes the $7500 credit:

“The deal will also include a means-tested $7,500 tax credit to make new electric vehicles more affordable, according to three people familiar with the details.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/manchin-climate-tax-bill.html

 

[Amps]

Lucy Manchin is holding the ball again for Charlie Brown America.

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