Are order conversion rates absolutely horrific?

[ldavenci]

I just got the email to order my 2nd Lightning and while good news for me, it can't be good news for Ford. My first reservation was placed right as the launch event started and I was one of the first. I received my invite in the MY22 2nd wave of invites. I've had my Lightning since June and LOVE it.

That said, when I realized my initial reservation position was really high, and that the order invite might come sooner than I could financially justify, I made a 2nd reservation. I made this 2nd reservation less than 3 hours before they shut down the reservations due to hitting 250,000 pre-orders.

How on earth could I already be up again? There is ZERO chance they have shipped 100,000 lightings, let alone the ~125,000 needed for my number to be up again with a poor 50% conversion rate.

Did tens of thousands of reservation holders bail once the full rebate wasn't available? Did most everyone want the Pro trim and cancel when they couldn't get it the way they wanted?

I'm not sure how it all falls into place. Reserved my intended Lariat XLT ER Lighting on 5/21/21 and didn't make the 2022 cut. in waiting for the 2023s the price hike happened in which put me in the highest price hike ($8500) and potentially no rebate because of the price (hope Im wrong). Received the invite yesterday at 2:09pm and placed the order at 8pm that night after paying the now $1500 order payment for what is now $88,974.00.

My excitement has dwindled as I'm struggling to justify a $1500 monthly payment even with 10k down due to rising interest rates that will inevitably go higher by time of completion.

I say all this to lean to the side of the conversion rates are fine as my plans/logic have all been smashed due to the higher price hikes by not being able to take advantage of what I thought was going to be a $77,474 cost....meaning people are keeping their vehicles. I think your dealer went to bat for you.

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[ldavenci]

I'm not sure how it all falls into place. Reserved my intended Lariat XLT ER Lighting on 5/21/21 and didn't make the 2022 cut. in waiting for the 2023s the price hike happened in which put me in the highest price hike ($8500) and potentially no rebate because of the price (hope Im wrong). Received the invite yesterday at 2:09pm and placed the order at 8pm that night after paying the now $1500 order payment for what is now $88,974.00.

My excitement has dwindled as I'm struggling to justify a $1500 monthly payment even with 10k down due to rising interest rates that will inevitably go higher by time of completion.

I say all this to lean to the side of the conversion rates are fine as my plans/logic have all been smashed due to the higher price hikes by not being able to take advantage of what I thought was going to be a $77,474 cost....meaning people are keeping their vehicles. I think your dealer went to bat for you.

Oh yeah, just heard my $90k RC Truck won't have the advertised heated steering wheel or an alarm system either in order to receive the vehicle in this way..... GGGGRRREEEEEEAAATTTT!!!!!! Such a great decision on my part. SMH!!!!

 

[TaxmanHog]

That's debatable, will just have to see what the IRS officially says. The ER pack is included in an "option" and per the wording in the law, options are not used as part of the MSRP calculation. The Lariat base trim MSRP is ~$75K and would qualify as either SR or with the ER option.

That is not what I read and have not seen any further guidance which allows that interpretation, could you share a link of what you have seen?

Here's what I have......
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-22-46.pdf

 

[shadycoh]

come on man what good are facts when you can make things fit your narrative.

That is not what I read and have not seen any further guidance which allows that interpretation, could you share a link of what you have seen?

Here's what I have......
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-22-46.pdf

 

[Jason Weaver]

That is not what I read and have not seen any further guidance which allows that interpretation, could you share a link of what you have seen?

Here's what I have......
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-22-46.pdf

I wonder if that’s base or total MSRP?

 

[YankeeCP]

In my opinion order conversion rates wouldn’t be drastically impacted yet, people who don’t take delivery of the built vehicle might soon be impacted as they roll them out.

 

[TaxmanHog]

I wonder if that’s base or total MSRP?

There is no definition in the law as written, it is the unfounded hope of many that the regulations & procedures will come out in that direction, but as written in the current LAW it's not distinctly stated. If IRS comes down to conservative point of view and lawmakers don't like it, the law makers can fix the frequent messes they make in poorly crafted legislation. Until then IMHO, take the conservative point of view.

 

[bmwhitetx]

If the rebate is needed for your financial situation then you should wait to order SR vs ER based on MSRP rule uncertainty. But there’s also the battery material threshold that may make the MSRP part irrelevant. Farley says they think it qualifies for half, not even the full 7500.

I have a dealer stock unit I love, but not my desired color. So once the rules settle out and I get my invite I may order the color I wanted. But the 2023’s are missing a couple of features I also desire. Before it got cold here I would have gladly swapped out my color choice for no heated steering wheel; I’ve never had that option and thought it frivolous. But now that I’ve tried it, I don’t think I can give it up!

 

[Jason Weaver]

There is no definition in the law as written, it is the unfounded hope of many that the regulations & procedures will come out in that direction, but as written in the current LAW it's not distinctly stated. If IRS comes down to conservative point of view and lawmakers don't like it, the law makers can fix the frequent messes they make in poorly crafted legislation. Until then IMHO, take the conservative point of view.

Agreed. It is sneakily ambiguous. The conservative route is the better play IMO as well.

 

[shutterbug]

There is no definition in the law as written, it is the unfounded hope of many that the regulations & procedures will come out in that direction, but as written in the current LAW it's not distinctly stated. If IRS comes down to conservative point of view and lawmakers don't like it, the law makers can fix the frequent messes they make in poorly crafted legislation. Until then IMHO, take the conservative point of view.

Actually, I think the definition is right there. It clearly states "manufacturer's suggested retail price". It doesn't say "base price". To me that sounds like total MSRP number at the bottom of the sticker. Now, it's remotely possible that IRS will interpret this in a way that contradicts plain meaning of the text, but I wouldn't place my hopes on that.

[edit] I should say that if the law applied to base price, it would be too easy for manufacturers to price it below threshold and make a whole bunch of things options. Like tires, wheels, talegate, fobs, etc.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Actually, I think the definition is right there. It clearly states "manufacturer's suggested retail price". It doesn't say "base price". To me that sounds like total MSRP number at the bottom of the sticker.

I agree with the BOTTOM price as being the number they will use, but others are hoping for the above the line price or the lowest trim base price, that's an unreasonable expectation.

Lariat-SR-------------------------------------------Lariat-ER

 

[Texas Dan]

There is no definition in the law as written, it is the unfounded hope of many that the regulations & procedures will come out in that direction, but as written in the current LAW it's not distinctly stated. If IRS comes down to conservative point of view and lawmakers don't like it, the law makers can fix the frequent messes they make in poorly crafted legislation. Until then IMHO, take the conservative point of view.

You are suggesting a very complicated process for the IRS. The IRS hardly even looks at tax returns and to suggest that the IRS is going to look every EV submitted for the tax credit meets the cost threshold is unrealistic. Just like they do today, the IRS is going to look at a list to see if your model trim is on it and they are not going to worry about whether your widget option drove the cost above the threshold.

 

[ExCivilian]

others are hoping for the above the line price or the lowest trim base price, that's an unreasonable expectation.

CA and OR and at least a couple other states, perhaps all of them, do interpret their incentive rules in the way people are hoping. It's not simply imagination that leads people to that conclusion and may not be an unreasonable assumption.

 

[shadycoh]

its amazing what them darned old computers can pull up with a vin number nowadays.

they don't have to search out much of anything. The computer pulls your vin from your paper work and reads the cost of the vehicle from the sticker price total.

 

[RickLightning]

Actually, I think the definition is right there. It clearly states "manufacturer's suggested retail price". It doesn't say "base price". To me that sounds like total MSRP number at the bottom of the sticker. Now, it's remotely possible that IRS will interpret this in a way that contradicts plain meaning of the text, but I wouldn't place my hopes on that.

[edit] I should say that if the law applied to base price, it would be too easy for manufacturers to price it below threshold and make a whole bunch of things options. Like tires, wheels, talegate, fobs, etc.

I agree with the BOTTOM price as being the number they will use, but others are hoping for the above the line price or the lowest trim base price, that's an unreasonable expectation.

I am not a tax expert, nor do I play one on TV, nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Many taxing jurisdictions / registration authorities utilize the base vehicle price, from a book, to determine things like registration fees. That should at least put trims, without specific packages, as the base price. Whether that puts the entire truck, regardless of trim, into one price is unlikely in my opinion.

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