It's All About the Delta (and Temperature, but the BMS will Protect You) -- Test: Effect of temperature on battery cells life

[lightspeed]

For lifetime charge cycles? Eh, they could do 10,000. Now, the battery might be at 10 to 20 percent, but it could do 10,000. because most batteries that hit the 1500 are Around 80 to 85%

Hell, there's a Tesla owner that has a Tesla on the original battery that has over a million miles on it.

True, but that's a deceptive number.

1000-1500 full cycles to maintain 70-80% of capacity. I didn't say they will explode after that. But nobody knows what will happen to Lightning batteries in the very long term.

The 1.2 million mile Tesla owned by Hansjorg von Gemmingen-Hornberg is on it's 4th battery pack. So, 300K miles per pack on the average. Some people have incorrectly reported it's on the original pack. It is not.

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[lightspeed]

Have you been hanging out with Snoop and smoking the sticky icky? (Sorry currently listening to snoop)

Using a throwaway device as a reference an IPhone 15 or 16 is designed to have 80 SOC at 1,000 complete cycles.

So yeah your battery in the truck will definitely exceed 1,OOO to 1,5000 lifetime charge cycles.

As GI Joe used to say….” Know you know and knowing is half the battle!”

I didn't say it would explode after 1,500 charges, but it will be degraded. Even 1000 charge cycles is already 250K to 300K-ish miles which is plenty.

 

[Grease Lightning]

I didn't say it would explode after 1,500 charges, but it will be degraded. Even 1000 charge cycles is already 250K to 300K-ish miles which is plenty.

Actually that is not what you said. The person you responded to specifically stated that at 1,000 to 1,500 you would likely see a 20% degradation.... and yet you told them they were wrong and that our batteries would be worn out and used more then a cathouse in Nevada.

 

[lightspeed]

Actually that is not what you said. The person you responded to specifically stated that at 1,000 to 1,500 you would likely see a 20% degradation.... and yet you told them they were wrong and that our batteries would be worn out and used more then a cathouse in Nevada.

NO, this is a direct copy/paste of what I responded to:

>>> According to Ford the F150 battery pack has a lifetime charge cycles of 10000... So basically 28 years if you charged to 100% every day.... Now battery degradation, that's another thing....guessing around 1200 to 1500 for 80% <<<

Do you see the TEN THOUSAND? -- TEN THOUSAND he said and he then followed with 28 years which would be charging from 0 to 100% every single day for 28 years.

In a follow up he did say at 10K charge cycles, maybe the battery only holds 10-20% of what it originally did, but there is no way to know that. Not enough data in the entire EV fleet to know what 10K cycles does to the average lithium battery. It appears that most of the time, batteries will hit some limit where they fail quickly.

Lithium batteries die by the weakest cell. As soon as one cell starts bloating/high-resistance/etc., the module/pack is done. For the Lightning, a module can be replaced. For Tesla, the entire pack has to be replaced.

One other thing about batteries, if modules become too different in their capacities and charge behavior, the whole pack might become unsalvageable. So, you can't necessarily stick one new module into an old pack in order to save it. The BMS might not be able to manage the differences.

 

[Kit2874]

NO, this is a direct copy/paste of what I responded to:

>>> According to Ford the F150 battery pack has a lifetime charge cycles of 10000... So basically 28 years if you charged to 100% every day.... Now battery degradation, that's another thing....guessing around 1200 to 1500 for 80% <<<

Do you see the TEN THOUSAND? -- TEN THOUSAND he said and he then followed with 28 years which would be charging from 0 to 100% every single day for 28 years.

Yep 0 to 100% for 28 years Now that 100% is whatever degradation that batteries at.

Maybe I should have Word it better

 

[Grease Lightning]

Do you see the TEN THOUSAND? -- TEN THOUSAND he said and he then followed with 28 years which would be charging from 0 to 100% every single day for 28 years.

And they may be correct.

10,000 could equally be 5 years if the truck is in a fleet and hauling locally and DCFC multiple times a day. That’s the joy of assumptions, we get to make up with absolutely no basis.

One important thing the “28 years” assumption is forgetting is as degradation occurs, charge cycles increase to accommodate the same use case.

So for the fleet concept, maybe it was 4 DCFC initially, but at 9,999 it could be 12 DCFC sessions to go the same mileage in a day.

Or back to the phone, I can still used my Gen 1 iPod Touch, but once unplugged I get maybe 45 minutes of use, so my 17 year old device would have potential 20 cycles a day if I were to charge and unplug it…

 

[lightspeed]

And they may be correct.

10,000 could equally be 5 years if the truck is in a fleet and hauling locally and DCFC multiple times a day. That’s the joy of assumptions, we get to make up with absolutely no basis.

One important thing the “28 years” assumption is forgetting is as degradation occurs, charge cycles increase to accommodate the same use case.

So for the fleet concept, maybe it was 4 DCFC initially, but at 9,999 it could be 12 DCFC sessions to go the same mileage in a day.

Or back to the phone, I can still used my Gen 1 iPod Touch, but once unplugged I get maybe 45 minutes of use, so my 17 year old device would have potential 20 cycles a day if I were to charge and unplug it…

You just need to be contrarian don't you LOL, that's fine...

There is no data anywhere to support any hypothesis that current EV lithium ion batteries can last 10K charge cycles. The BMS will fail the pack way before it lets you keep doing dangerous recharging on damaged packs.

In 28 years, you can let us know if you got 10K charges out of your pack

 

[Grease Lightning]

In 28 years, you can let us know if you got 10K charges out of your pack

How about a gofundme to replace my Lightning and pay the charging costs and I will tell you in like 5 years…..I am all about data and actual experience rather than all this pointless assumptions of 28 years….. my years on this forum has taught me there are a lot of people on here that road trip and have way more then a charge cycle a day, particularly our SR brothers

 

[lightspeed]

How about a gofundme to replace my Lightning and pay the charging costs and I will tell you in like 5 years…..I am all about data and actual experience rather than all this pointless assumptions of 28 years….. my years on this forum has taught me there are a lot of people on here that road trip and have way more then a charge cycle a day, particularly our SR brothers

Agree to wanting data. And since we don't have the data, we can't make wild predictions.

But based on Tesla's fleet, we should get 250K+ miles which is more than enough. How many people keep their vehicles that long? Very, very few.

 

[chl]

Also consider that AC to DC conversion

19.2 KW theoretical EVSE output really amounts to 18 KW in my 2+ years of measurements.

18 KW / ~350 vDC = ~ 51 amps DC running through the battery pack.

Yes, and also consider the charge curve, not a constant current either, with an AC or DC EVSE.

For longevity, slower/lower current is better of course, even with charge curve control. Heat is the culprit even with active cooling.

Avoiding deep discharge states (below 20%) as well as high states (100%) can be a significant longevity factor.

Personally, I never go below 50% - they say 50% to 75% is ideal if parked for longish periods of time.

As for number of charge cycles (0% to 100% or equivalent is a charge cycle) the numbers I've seen are that battery degradation (significant capacity loss) starts after somewhere in the neighborhood of 1500 to 2000 charge cycles.

Age is also factor but not as significant as the others, some say 1% capacity is lost per year typically. That's about what I see with my 2012 Nissan Leaf battery that is 12 years old and has low mileage and low number of charge cycles (didn't keep track of them though).

Lets say I have a Lightning with a 98kWh battery (which I do) and the alleged range is 230 miles 100% to 0% charge, i.e., one charge cycle. So lets use the 1000 cycle number. That means a useful life in miles of 230,000 miles optimally. I typically drive the Lightning between 100 and 200 miles per month...let's say 230 mile per month to make the math easier, that's 1000 months or over 80 years...I will not live to see that, I'd be over 150 years old. Of course, the estimated 1% loss per year would reduce my battery to a 20% capacity level after 80 years anyway.

That will be reduced if I did a lot of fast DC charging, let the charge level (depth of discharge) drop below 20% frequently or go to 100% frequently, leave it stored outside of the charge range of 50%-75% for long periods of time, or drive very aggressively (fast accelerations).

How much those factors will affect longevity is not known for certain.

However, from Tesla anecdotal data, fast charging may reduce the mileage to between 120,000 to 180,000 miles.

"...There are anecdotes of Tesla Model S drivers needing new batteries from 180,000 to 250,000 miles, though this may be explainable by lots of fast charging and deep cycling. These drivers are far from your typical EV owner and have kept their cars long past the point where many consider replacing their vehicles..."

https://www.thedrive.com/guides-and-gear/how-long-ev-batteries-really-last

Newer battery tech should improve lifespan.

But I think the Lightning will suffice as is for me.

 

[chl]

Agree to wanting data. And since we don't have the data, we can't make wild predictions.

But based on Tesla's fleet, we should get 250K+ miles which is more than enough. How many people keep their vehicles that long? Very, very few.

Some Teslas had battery replacements at 180k to 200k miles though - maybe from too much DC charging?

 

[chl]

Have you been hanging out with Snoop and smoking the sticky icky? (Sorry currently listening to snoop)

Using a throwaway device as a reference an IPhone 15 or 16 is designed to have 80% SOC at 1,000 complete cycles.

So yeah your battery in the truck will definitely exceed 1,000 to 1,500 lifetime charge cycles.

As GI Joe used to say….”Now you know and knowing is half the battle!”

iPhones will be more like 500 cycles I think, at best.

"An [OLDER] iPhone battery typically lasts 2 to 3 years, or 300–400 charge cycles, before it reaches 80% of its original capacity. However, the exact lifespan depends on how the phone is used and charged.... Batteries of iPhone 15 models are designed to retain 80 percent of their original capacity at 1000 complete charge cycles under ideal conditions.* ..."

https://support.apple.com/en-us/101575#:~:text=Maximum battery capacity measures the,the following messages might appear.

CAVEAT: that is from Apple's info. and iPhone 15s are only a year or so old...

 

[lightspeed]

Some Teslas had battery replacements at 180k to 200k miles though - maybe from too much DC charging?

yeah one uber driver had to replace his Tesla battery at 120K miles, but this was DC fast charging multiple times a day.

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