Ford F-150 Lightning realistic delivery dates

[Brian Head Yankee]

I asked this question of a dealer and they said changing dealers would not affect your place in line nor would dealer allotment affect your place in line.

We have to be very careful with terms. Dealer allotment is how many build slots each dealer gets per week. As I said earlier there are 3000 dealers so either Ford is using the REGULAR allotment system or they aren't. It cannot be both.

If you are at dealer A with 500 reservations and I am at dealer B with 5 reservations, I may get mine scheduled to build way before you do simply because you are in a longer line! Until one of you steps up and provides factory info that says Ford handles the lightning different than every other reservation roll out. I'll stick to what I learned painfully with my Bronco order.

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[sotek2345]

It took me a bit to make the decision to put in a reservation (did it last week). Based on the reservation number I am number 170k or so in line. I am not sure what their build rates are planned to be, but I think I am at least out to 2024 or 2025 being that far down the line. (assuming 50k/yr. production rate.). I think Ford will be battery limited more than anything else.

 

[shutterbug]

It took me a bit to make the decision to put in a reservation (did it last week). Based on the reservation number I am number 170k or so in line. I am not sure what their build rates are planned to be, but I think I am at least out to 2024 or 2025 being that far down the line. (assuming 50k/yr. production rate.). I think Ford will be battery limited more than anything else.

I've no idea how many Ford will make in the first year, but I seriously doubt that all of the reservations will get converted to orders. My SWAG is 30-40% will turn into orders. OTOH, I think true fleet orders are a big unknown.

 

[currybob]

It took me a bit to make the decision to put in a reservation (did it last week). Based on the reservation number I am number 170k or so in line. I am not sure what their build rates are planned to be, but I think I am at least out to 2024 or 2025 being that far down the line. (assuming 50k/yr. production rate.). I think Ford will be battery limited more than anything else.

As of 26 May, 70,000 Lightening trucks have been reserved. I don't think 100,000 have been added to the list since then. The first 2 days had the highest reservations made which was 44,000.

 

[bowman07]

As of 26 May, 70,000 Lightening trucks have been reserved. I don't think 100,000 have been added to the list since then. The first 2 days had the highest reservations made which was 44,000.

This is good news for me, since I reserved on day 2. Where do I find the source for this info?

 

[currybob]

This is good news for me, since I reserved on day 2. Where do I find the source for this info?

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/...had already received over 44,500 reservations.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Correct. This seems to be the same system as Ford used for the Mach E.

Sort of. We also know that with the MME, some earlier reservations and orders were built a fair bit later than those that were ordered/reserved later. There's more to this than just reservation timestamp.

Since my Lightning res is with a Mainland dealer it'll be "interesting" to see just how it works out in the production order compared to those who reserved out her.

 

[Roy2001]

I've no idea how many Ford will make in the first year, but I seriously doubt that all of the reservations will get converted to orders. My SWAG is 30-40% will turn into orders. OTOH, I think true fleet orders are a big unknown.

My feeling is Ford would make around ~30k next year, and it would be hard to get lower priced version. I would pay up to $70k minus $12.5k, but probably not if higher than that.

 

[sotek2345]

My feeling is Ford would make around ~30k next year, and it would be hard to get lower priced version. I would pay up to $70k minus $12.5k, but probably not if higher than that.

You are probably right. I am really curious how many reservations they got. If they are booked for years and can't ramp production I think the could have a bit of a PR situation since there would be none at the dealerships for folks to just walk in and buy. I wonder if they would set aside some to just go to dealerships and delay reservations further.

 

[shutterbug]

My feeling is Ford would make around ~30k next year, and it would be hard to get lower priced version. I would pay up to $70k minus $12.5k, but probably not if higher than that.

30K Electric F150s seems way low. I'm thinking closer to 80-100K.

 

[shutterbug]

You are probably right. I am really curious how many reservations they got. If they are booked for years and can't ramp production I think the could have a bit of a PR situation since there would be none at the dealerships for folks to just walk in and buy. I wonder if they would set aside some to just go to dealerships and delay reservations further.

There will probably be lots of abandoned orders that will hit dealer lots.

 

[sotek2345]

30K Electric F150s seems way low. I'm thinking closer to 80-100K.

I have read elsewhere (so take this with a grain of salt) that their ultimate battery capacity will be limited to 80k per year, and likely take awhile to ramp to that (or for SK to ramp to that since that is their supplier - they need to built the new factory). Not sure if that 80k/yr limit was just Lightning or all Ford EVs.

Edit - link

https://insideevs.com/news/508668/ford-f150-lightning-production-limited/

 

[EVTruckGuy]

Sort of. We also know that with the MME, some earlier reservations and orders were built a fair bit later than those that were ordered/reserved later. There's more to this than just reservation timestamp.

Since my Lightning res is with a Mainland dealer it'll be "interesting" to see just how it works out in the production order compared to those who reserved out her.

Yeah, it seemed like the MMEs were built in batches based on configurations locations, and maybe other unknown factors. Build dates seemed to roughly correlate with who ordered first with some variation based other variables.

If the Lightning is similar, there will be plenty of people who order very early on who get build dates after people who ordered later.

 

[newF150]

Yeah, it seemed like the MMEs were built in batches based on configurations locations, and maybe other unknown factors. Build dates seemed to roughly correlate with who ordered first with some variation based other variables.

If the Lightning is similar, there will be plenty of people who order very early on who get build dates after people who ordered later.

They are also built based on a runbook. If I have a later reservation date but put in an order before someone who has an earlier reservation date and they miss the cutoff for a production batch then they will get theirs built and delivered after mine as well.

 

[Texas Dan]

I am new to this forum but I’m on my forth EV and I have been very active on other EV forums for years. My F150 Lightning reservation number is 10951xxx and the lowest reservation number I saw on the reservation listing thread was 10813xxx so just going by the reservation numbers there were about 140,000 reservations before mine. When I will get my Lightning is a question of how long will it take Ford to produce 140,000 units.

If you have been following EV production for very long you will know that EV production historically has been painfully slow. Tesla hit a roadblock at 5,000 units per month on the Model 3 and for a long time it seemed like they would never get beyond that number. Ford is in a completely different position with the F150 Lightning than Tesla was in when the Model 3 production began.

Ford currently sells about 900,000 F150s per year so we might assume that Ford has the assembly line for the F150 Lightning is up and running, something Tesla did not have with the Model 3. Still increasing F150 production by 140,000 or more in a single year may be a significant challenge for Ford. It may be well over a year between the time production starts until I receive my F150 Lightning.

I am planning to order the top trim level just to get all the options I want. Getting the top trim level may be bring me up in the priority list but it will also drive up the price tag. I am glad for the extra time I will have to wait for my Lightning so I can sell off some of my other cars and pay off some of my other debts so I can afford my top trim F150 Lightning.

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