Ford F-150 Lightning realistic delivery dates

[newF150]

I am new to this forum but I’m on my forth EV and I have been very active on other EV forums for years. My F150 Lightning reservation number is 10951xxx and the lowest reservation number I saw on the reservation listing thread was 10813xxx so just going by the reservation numbers there were about 140,000 reservations before mine. When I will get my Lightning is a question of how long will it take Ford to produce 140,000 units.

If you have been following EV production for very long you will know that EV production historically has been painfully slow. Tesla hit a roadblock at 5,000 units per month on the Model 3 and for a long time it seemed like they would never get beyond that number. Ford is in a completely different position with the F150 Lightning than Tesla was in when the Model 3 production began.

Ford currently sells about 900,000 F150s per year so we might assume that Ford has the assembly line for the F150 Lightning is up and running, something Tesla did not have with the Model 3. Still increasing F150 production by 140,000 or more in a single year may be a significant challenge for Ford. It may be well over a year between the time production starts until I receive my F150 Lightning.

I am planning to order the top trim level just to get all the options I want. Getting the top trim level may be bring me up in the priority list but it will also drive up the price tag. I am glad for the extra time I will have to wait for my Lightning so I can sell off some of my other cars and pay off some of my other debts so I can afford my top trim F150 Lightning.

The Lightning will be built in a different factory than the gas F150s. The main constraint is the amount of batteries Ford can get from it's supplier. They won't have "production hell" like Tesla as they've been building vehicles for quite a few years now.

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[EaglesPDX]

30K Electric F150s seems way low. I'm thinking closer to 80-100K.

Pretty sure Ford said 88,000 for 2022.

Ford will produce the higher end models first, $60-$90k just like GM and Tesla.

So 88,000 of us will likely take delivery in 2022.

 

[sotek2345]

Looks like Ford just officially announced 100k reservations - lower than it would be based on the reservation numbers but more expected I think. Maybe this means I might make the second year of production!

https://www.engadget.com/f-150-lightning-sales-012134743.html

 

[newF150]

Pretty sure Ford said 88,000 for 2022.

Ford will produce the higher end models first, $60-$90k just like GM and Tesla.

So 88,000 of us will likely take delivery in 2022.

Some auto analyst who follows the industry was estimating 80k first year production based on parts suppliers forward outlooks.

 

[F150ROD]

I am new to this forum but I’m on my forth EV and I have been very active on other EV forums for years. My F150 Lightning reservation number is 10951xxx and the lowest reservation number I saw on the reservation listing thread was 10813xxx so just going by the reservation numbers there were about 140,000 reservations before mine. When I will get my Lightning is a question of how long will it take Ford to produce 140,000 units.

If you have been following EV production for very long you will know that EV production historically has been painfully slow. Tesla hit a roadblock at 5,000 units per month on the Model 3 and for a long time it seemed like they would never get beyond that number. Ford is in a completely different position with the F150 Lightning than Tesla was in when the Model 3 production began.

Ford currently sells about 900,000 F150s per year so we might assume that Ford has the assembly line for the F150 Lightning is up and running, something Tesla did not have with the Model 3. Still increasing F150 production by 140,000 or more in a single year may be a significant challenge for Ford. It may be well over a year between the time production starts until I receive my F150 Lightning.

I am planning to order the top trim level just to get all the options I want. Getting the top trim level may be bring me up in the priority list but it will also drive up the price tag. I am glad for the extra time I will have to wait for my Lightning so I can sell off some of my other cars and pay off some of my other debts so I can afford my top trim F150 Lightning.

Ford doesn't work like Tesla where they will make the top trim available first. Just browse around and see how many people are still waiting on their Platinum PB F-150s

 

[newF150]

Ford doesn't work like Tesla where they will make the top trim available first. Just browse around and see ho want people are still waiting on their Platinum PB F-150s

Based on production of the Mach E, it'll be a combination of reservation date, order date, color + trim combo, geographic area of dealership vehicle is being delivered to.

 

[audiomikej]

Today Tesla has a slighty quicker lead time 9-13 weeks, vs. Mach-E 16+ weeks. There is no way Lightning production will reach 88k in Y1 (2022) more like 8.8k as the Truck has a much larger battery.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Looks like Ford just officially announced 100k reservations - lower than it would be based on the reservation numbers but more expected I think. Maybe this means I might make the second year of production!

https://www.engadget.com/f-150-lightning-sales-012134743.html

Reservation numbers are not exclusive to the Lightning. Mach-e, Bronco, etc are all wrapped up in there as well.

As for production, there are a lot of factors that will be considered in scheduling, reservation date and order conversion date are two of them, but not the only consideration and might not even be the largest. We shall see.

 

[sotek2345]

Reservation numbers are not exclusive to the Lightning. Mach-e, Bronco, etc are all wrapped up in there as well.

As for production, there are a lot of factors that will be considered in scheduling, reservation date and order conversion date are two of them, but not the only consideration and might not even be the largest. We shall see.

You are right - we shall see. A longer wait probably works out better for me (I just spent some money doing a retro-inspired build on my 2016 XLT), but I can't help getting more excited as time passes

 

[Billho]

You are right - we shall see. A longer wait probably works out better for me (I just spent some money doing a retro-inspired build on my 2016 XLT), but I can't help getting more excited as time passes

Me too. I am excited about the Lightning, but just bought a used Ranger and I'd like to be able to keep it for a while before I decide whether or not to move to the Lightning. I may want to pass the Ranger on to one of my kids, but it is too early to know that yet. Another year would help.

 

[drcarric2650]

Ford doesn't work like Tesla where they will make the top trim available first. Just browse around and see ho want people are still waiting on their Platinum PB F-150s

I would suspect that is due to chip shortage, more gadgets, more chips needed.

 

[Blainestang]

Ford doesn't work like Tesla where they will make the top trim available first. Just browse around and see how many people are still waiting on their Platinum PB F-150s

Ford also doesn't normally slash the margin like they did for the Standard Range Pro.

The XLT Lightning is $3k more than a comparable gas XLT. Which is still great, BUT...
The Pro Lightning is $10k LESS than a comparable gas XL.

The XL is normally $3k less than a comparable gas XLT.
The Pro is $13k less than a comparable Lightning XL.

They also just plain won't let regular people buy the Extended Range Pro, and I don't believe that's because it wouldn't sell.

So, I hope I'm wrong, but I think they're going to try and limit the number of Pros they build, at least for retail buyers. They simply stand to make WAY more money on the other ones. There's maybe $3k worth of difference between XLT and Pro. Nowhere near the $13000 price difference. So, that's mostly profit, so they're going to do what they can to push people to the XLT and up (like no ER Pro) and maybe limiting the SR Pro to a certain percentage of trucks.

I guess we'll see and I hope I'm wrong, but this is a different animal than a normal F-150. They absolutely slashed the margin on the Pro, unlike any other version.

To be clear, I don't fault them for pushing people to the higher margin versions. I'm a shareholder because I believe in their EV plan and have for a while. BUT they've already blocked people from the ER Pro and I wouldn't be surprised if they do more to discourage or limit the SR Pro, too.

 

[newF150]

Ford also doesn't normally slash the margin like they did for the Standard Range Pro.

The XLT Lightning is $3k more than a comparable gas XLT. Which is still great, BUT...
The Pro Lightning is $10k LESS than a comparable gas XL.

The XL is normally $3k less than a comparable gas XLT.
The Pro is $13k less than a comparable Lightning XL.

They also just plain won't let regular people buy the Extended Range Pro, and I don't believe that's because it wouldn't sell.

So, I hope I'm wrong, but I think they're going to try and limit the number of Pros they build, at least for retail buyers. They simply stand to make WAY more money on the other ones. There's maybe $3k worth of difference between XLT and Pro. Nowhere near the $13000 price difference. So, that's mostly profit, so they're going to do what they can to push people to the XLT and up (like no ER Pro) and maybe limiting the SR Pro to a certain percentage of trucks.

I guess we'll see and I hope I'm wrong, but this is a different animal than a normal F-150. They absolutely slashed the margin on the Pro, unlike any other version.

To be clear, I don't fault them for pushing people to the higher margin versions. I'm a shareholder because I believe in their EV plan and have for a while. BUT they've already blocked people from the ER Pro and I wouldn't be surprised if they do more to discourage or limit the SR Pro, too.

I believe the reason the margins are lower for the Pro and preventing retail sales is to sell multiples to fleet buyers. Lower margins but making up for it in volume.

 

[bosox8]

I think that with the $100 deposit, there's going to be a lot of people (including myself) that will experience sticker shock when the build/price tool is available. It seems like there's already several features that are not going to be available on the Pro trim (the current word is that retail customers can't get the ER battery) that might be a deal breaker for me. The XLT ER with some options is probably going to be pushing $70k

Agree with your sentiment. I would settle for the Pro with ER as a non-commercial purchaser (meaning I have no employees but truck would still be used to support my real estate services company) - hope that will be an option.

 

[sotek2345]

Agree with your sentiment. I would settle for the Pro with ER as a non-commercial purchaser (meaning I have no employees but truck would still be used to support my real estate services company) - hope that will be an option.

Multiple questions about this at the Lightning tour events have been responded to by Ford that the ER battery will not be available on the PRO except the Fleet customers (who order through a different system).

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