Lithium EV vs Up coming Solid State EV

[currybob]

There is a huge list of advantages from a Solid State Battery (SSB) pack over the older Lithium packs. I reserved a Lighting but a lot of information I have been studying and my findings suggesting the SSBs may not be as far off as many have thought.

Next year should yield some good updates. Ford is investing heavy into the new battery tech as well. The industry as a whole is seeking this tech for the new wave for future EVs.

https://fordauthority.com/2021/06/f...er-solid-power-mulls-going-public-via-merger/

For this reason I am not going to be jumping into the lighting till the SSB system has arrived, I've been saying 2024-2025 is a real possibility and now I'm thinking more of a probability.

If you buy a lithium version EV and the SSBs come out the next year, you will take a big hit on the value of your newly purchased vehicle. Plus an EV with the SSB system will more than likely have twice range, much longer battery pack life, more power, charge twice as fast, no fire hazard, cost less and weigh a lot less.

Just saying, check things out well before you jump in, one year could be a huge difference.

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[xtraman122]

I’m definitely waiting for whatever the next evolution of battery tech is before I purchase an EV. I’ve been considering it for about a year now, but timing just didn’t feel right so I just got a PowerBoost for now. 2024-2025 will likely be my timeframe for my next purchase as well.

 

[drcarric2650]

Good luck on waiting, I would imagine you will be waiting to well past 2025.

Keep in mind, they can already make Solid state batteries, just not in quantity or cost effectively. Lithium will continue to go down in price over the next decade, and possibly by then solid state may begin to take over... but then again, may not.

 

[currybob]

I’m definitely waiting for whatever the next evolution of battery tech is before I purchase an EV. I’ve been considering it for about a year now, but timing just didn’t feel right so I just got a PowerBoost for now. 2024-2025 will likely be my timeframe for my next purchase as well.

Me as well, got my PowerBoost this past Jan and really loving it! I really want to finally keep a tuck for 4 years which I have never done yet. I reserved a Lightning because it was just $100 and you get it back if you don't purchase one.

I will get a Lightning next for I love all the tech and features but the range towing is just not enough. The SSB will really make that thing look good! Lol

drcarric2650
Did you not read the article??

 

[beatle]

I imagine this is the quote you're referring to from the article.

"The company plans to begin producing solid-state batteries for electric vehicles in early 2022."​

That sounds promising, but I think that's the idea. It's just supposed to sound good. There are a lot of applications for more energy dense batteries that are lot smaller and easier to implement than an EV battery: phones, laptops, power tools, etc.

I would expect to see solid state batteries in a halo EV first with a very high pricetag. Maybe Ford will make a real Mustang EV with solid state batteries, or Tesla, or Porsche, or BMW... It will be exciting to see them in an EV, for sure. That said, I know this is an F150 forum and trucks are popular, but it will be on "old" lithium for a while, I think.

 

[ColoradoHunter]

EV or hybrid vehicles will be like every other high tech item in the last 20 years, give it a year and it will be obsolete compared to the up to date vehicles. Plan to trade every year or two if you want to keep up with the latest and greatest .

 

[MickeyAO]

I test batteries for most major OEMs (usually 'safety' testing...the things manufacturers tell you not to do, we do them here!) and a heck of a lot smaller manufactures. I have seen a lot of new technologies come through my labs, but have yet to see an SSB or the inorganic electrolytes. I will not be holding off on the early iterations of the Lighting waiting for further developments.

I think back to the early days of home computers where people were worried about Moores Law obsoleting a computer they just bought and never bought the current state-of-art at the time.

 

[Blainestang]

EV or hybrid vehicles will be like every other high tech item in the last 20 years, give it a year and it will be obsolete compared to the up to date vehicles. Plan to trade every year or two if you want to keep up with the latest and greatest .

There's really no reason that a new Mach E won't be perfectly good in 10 years. If it works for you, now, it will work for you in 10 years.

Will the 2031 Mach E charge faster and have longer range? Yeah. But a 2021 will still be about as usable as it is today, minus perhaps some battery degradation, but probably not THAT much.

Also, as range increases, each jump in range is less and less meaningful.

Going from 100 to 200 miles is huge. Going from 300 to 400 miles? Meh. For most people, 300 was fine in the first place.

I agree with you that EVs are going to quickly be technically not-the-best-anymore, but the old ones will still be fine for whatever use case they were good for when they were purchased, so people shouldn't avoid buying one just because a slightly better one will be available next year... as long as it works for them now.

 

[newF150]

There's really no reason that a new Mach E won't be perfectly good in 10 years. If it works for you, now, it will work for you in 10 years.

Will the 2031 Mach E charge faster and have longer range? Yeah. But a 2021 will still be about as usable as it is today, minus perhaps some battery degradation, but probably not THAT much.

Also, as range increases, each jump in range is less and less meaningful.

Going from 100 to 200 miles is huge. Going from 300 to 400 miles? Meh. For most people, 300 was fine in the first place.

I agree with you that EVs are going to quickly be technically not-the-best-anymore, but the old ones will still be fine for whatever use case they were good for when they were purchased, so people shouldn't avoid buying one just because a slightly better one will be available next year... as long as it works for them now.

And if they wait for the next level of technology, there will be news at that time of the next innovation coming soon.

 

[kdkool]

The powerboost is a fine truck. I am adding the lightning EV to the stable as I can not do without an ICE truck. Like smartphones , there’s going to be nicer shiny ones every few months. If you have the means to do short cycle upgrade, do it by all means. I am confident that lithium tech is going to last me for my 5-10yr ownership window so I’m not holding out for new battery tech that more than likely won’t see mass production until 3-4 more years.

 

[Theo1000]

I don't see the point of waiting. It is entirely possible if there is enough demand to swap out a Li-Ion battery for a SSB battery 10 years from now. This is happening right now for EV's that have been on the road for 10+ years. There is always something cooler coming. The SSB's don't have enough experience data to really be put into a truck yet. They will probably start with a high priced low volume vehicle for a few years.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I imagine this is the quote you're referring to from the article.

"The company plans to begin producing solid-state batteries for electric vehicles in early 2022."​

That sounds promising, but I think that's the idea. It's just supposed to sound good. There are a lot of applications for more energy dense batteries that are lot smaller and easier to implement than an EV battery: phones, laptops, power tools, etc.

I would expect to see solid state batteries in a halo EV first with a very high pricetag. Maybe Ford will make a real Mustang EV with solid state batteries, or Tesla, or Porsche, or BMW... It will be exciting to see them in an EV, for sure. That said, I know this is an F150 forum and trucks are popular, but it will be on "old" lithium for a while, I think.

Agreed. They are trying to gain investor interest and confidence for going public. Don't forget that there is a big divide between producing a solid-state batteries for electric vehicles and mass producing them at a price the market will bear. I'm ready for a BEV truck now. I'm not going to hold out for the next great thing.

 

[Pedaldude]

If you buy a lithium version EV and the SSBs come out the next year, you will take a big hit on the value of your newly purchased vehicle. Plus an EV with the SSB system will more than likely have twice range, much longer battery pack life, more power, charge twice as fast, no fire hazard, cost less and weigh a lot less.

I am hoping on this, since a new Lightning makes little sense for the amount of miles that I drive every week (70miles on average) but a used one and some rooftop solar could possibly work out for me. Since the Lightning is body-on-frame and the battery/motors aren't fully integrated as stressed members, it will likely stand upgrades much better than something like the Mach-E. So, with the higher ease of customization; it's quite possible that an upgraded 1st generation EV Lightning will outlast its replacements. The possibility of energy rationing might also limit the maximum output of future EVs the same way that the European Union has banned vacuum cleaners over 900watts after 2017. So it's also possible performance won't improve much because of outside influences.

As to any fire hazard, even though the solid state batteries won't be using a hydrocarbon based electrolyte; any time you pack over 100kWh of electricity into something, you face the very real possibility of turning your aluminum bodied truck into a flashbulb. Gasoline has a flame temperature of almost 4,000°F but an arc flash can reach 35,000°F and while no doubt there will be safeguards in place and it will hopefully be a rarity, a potential always exists regarding any electrical storage scheme. So far, any thermal runaway studies for solid state batteries remain to be seen.

 

[EVSport7]

Not sure if you watched this interview from a few weeks ago. He outlines their timeline for EV pack production. They are talking about scaling up to the size that can be stacked into a battery pack by the end of 2023. I realize that this isn't Ford's pony in the race, but it gives you an idea of a timeline to get this scaled up properly.

3+ years before they even start testing in the cars. VW and QS themselves are already building pilot lines, so I feel this will be very doable. Once they get there it will be very expensive, I could see these in new model Porsche and other lines like that where buyers are used to paying a huge premium. Hopefully they can get prices down and make the tech usable for the commoners by the end of the decade ?

 

[beatle]

I am hoping on this, since a new Lightning makes little sense for the amount of miles that I drive every week (70miles on average) but a used one and some rooftop solar could possibly work out for me. Since the Lightning is body-on-frame and the battery/motors aren't fully integrated as stressed members, it will likely stand upgrades much better than something like the Mach-E. So, with the higher ease of customization; it's quite possible that an upgraded 1st generation EV Lightning will outlast its replacements. The possibility of energy rationing might also limit the maximum output of future EVs the same way that the European Union has banned vacuum cleaners over 900watts after 2017. So it's also possible performance won't improve much because of outside influences.

I think it is extremely unlikely that Ford or other companies would offer battery retrofits for existing vehicles. Batteries are still incredibly expensive and specific to the vehicle in which they were installed. Even Tesla that touted the prices of batteries coming down over the years has not offered retrofits for their older vehicles. Identical battery replacements are $22k, and the packs are simply "refurbished." They will not even sell you a 100kwh pack for an 85kwh car. With the limited production numbers of the earlier trucks, there is even less incentive for Ford to retrofit a battery vs. buying a new truck.

With drivetrain efficiencies between 90 and 95%, there is really no point to limiting power output. It is not like a gas car that uses more fuel when under heavy load or at certain portions of the powerband. In fact, even if I launch my Tesla hard from a stoplight, my overall energy consumption does not change unless I have to use the mechanical brakes or I drive significantly faster than the speed limit, either of which are irrelevant to the amount of power that the car makes.

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