Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Brian Head Yankee]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-ford-doubles-lightning-production-193019622.html

Exclusive-Ford doubles Lightning production target on strong pre-launch demand -sources

August 23, 2021

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co has doubled its production target for the F-150 Lightning because of strong early demand for the full-sized electric pickup truck ahead of its 2022 launch, and the company plans to spend an additional $850 million to meet that target, several people and suppliers familiar with the plans said.

The No. 2 U.S. automaker is targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources, who asked not to be identified. Shares of Ford rose 1.3% on Monday.

"They were pleasantly surprised by the demand for the Lightning," one of the sources said of Ford officials.

Industry observers have questioned whether individual buyers will give up their gas-powered pickups for electric models, but commercial customers are pushing for electric trucks and vans to reduce their carbon footprints.

The ramp to the new production target includes plans to build about 15,000 next year after the electric truck's spring launch and 55,000 in 2023, a second source said. Following the launch of the second generation Lightning in late 2025, the annual target is just shy of 160,000.

The increase is on top of the 50% boost Ford outlined last November, the sources said.

Driving the more optimistic targets is strong pre-launch demand for the vehicle, especially with commercial customers, the sources said.

"We are excited with customer demand for the F-150 Lightning and already have 120,000 customer reservations, and we will continue to look for ways to break constraints and meet customer demand," Ford said in a statement. The company declined to comment further.

Ford and other global automakers are racing to shift their gasoline-powered lineups to all electric power under pressure from regions like Europe and China to cut vehicle emissions. U.S. President Joe Biden has called for $174 billion to boost U.S. EV production, sales and infrastructure.

In May, Ford outlined plans to boost its spending on electrification by 2030 by more than a third to over $30 billion. Ford also announced plans that month to form a battery joint venture with South Korean battery maker SK Innovation Co that would open two plants in North America.

Ford's EV strategy is focused on leveraging its strongest brands, with the electric F-150 and Transit van joining the Mustang Mach-E SUV. The gas-powered F-150 has been the top-selling vehicle in the United States for over four decades.

Other automakers with plans to introduce electric pickups include General Motors Co and Tesla Inc, as well as startups Lordstown Motors Corp, Canoo Inc and Rivian. Ford owns a stake in Rivian.

The increased Lightning production target has some suppliers worried about the extra investment that will entail and unsure the demand for electric pick-ups will meet Ford's expectations.

"It really puts suppliers in a dicey situation if the volume doesn't come true," said one supplier executive, who asked not to be identified.

The redesigned F-150 Lightning, due in late 2025, is expected to be the first to employ Ford's new TE1 truck architecture, AutoForecast Solutions previously said. The first-generation Lightning uses a platform that is heavily derived from the standard F-150.

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[RLXXI]

That's a lot lower than I expected...

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...n-target-strong-pre-launch-demand-2021-08-23/

Damn, Gonna be a bunch of impatient and upset people. Hopefully I'm not one. I put my reservation in very early.

 

[bfjeld]

I wonder how many will make it up to Canada?

 

[Sdctcher]

This is actually good news for those lucky 15,000 because it shows Ford will start out production slowly and pay attention to Quality First. It will give them a chance to work out internal snafus and vendor quality (see Bronco Hard Top Recalls). If one really is all in for the Lightning one will stay in the game and wait. Buying anything else will be a dice roll.

We could see this coming given the continuing chip backlog and the virus coming back. I think Ford is being smart leaking the bad news early. The stock market today agrees with FMC gaining.

I hope whoever gets an invite to order will post here so I know when my clock will start.

 

[Whiskey]

Farley stated there were 20k orders the morning after the debut, I was like 3- minutes before the end of the debut. Got my fingers crossed, I’m one of the 15k.?

 

[vandy1981]

Damn, Gonna be a bunch of impatient and upset people. Hopefully I'm not one. I put my reservation in very early.

This also increases the likelihood that the MME will wash out Ford's allotment of tax credits before there is meaningful F150L production (assuming there isn't a favorable change in the current federal credit scheme).

 

[Hamtech]

How does the reservation number system work? Does 10828xxx means 28,xxx?

 

[astricklin]

How does the reservation number system work? Does 10828292 means 28,292?

This has been discussed extensively...short answer, no.

 

[Sdctcher]

Correction to Whiskey:
Do not confuse the word "reservations" with "orders. To date there have been NO ORDERS. The morning after there were 20,000 reservations. Just Saying.

 

[Hamtech]

This has been discussed extensively...short answer, no.

Thank You. I did exactly what I hate others do. I failed to search the forum before asking a question.

 

[astricklin]

This is actually good news for those lucky 15,000 because it shows Ford will start out production slowly and pay attention to Quality First. It will give them a chance to work out internal snafus and vendor quality (see Bronco Hard Top Recalls). If one really is all in for the Lightning one will stay in the game and wait. Buying anything else will be a dice roll.

The hard top on the bronco was a totally new part from a new supplier. I can't think of anything on the lightning that is actually new, new. The battery and motors are different than the mach-e but can be from the same supplier using the same manufacturing processes just a different design. The independent rear suspension isn't anything novel (and exists on the expedition). The frunk is the only thing actually new, but it's just a trunk. They already manufacture power liftgates and trunk lids on other vehicles. The frame is slightly different, but again this is just a modified design sourced from the same supplier as the million other truck frames that they use in a year.
It seems to me like Ford has done as much as they can to make the launch of the lightning as smooth as possible. Hopefully they won't have any more issues than they have between generations of any other vehicle (and hopefully less...looking at you explorer). They honestly cannot afford to screw up the launch of this. Everyone who is doubting that an electric truck can succeed will be pointing at every fault possible to say..."I'll stick with my gas engine thanks".

 

[astricklin]

Correction to Whiskey:
Do not confuse the word "reservations" with "orders. To date there have been NO ORDERS. The morning after there were 20,000 reservations. Just Saying.

Ok so if 10% convert to orders then there's your 12k....I would think there will be a much higher conversion rate than that.

 

[Sdctcher]

The hard top on the bronco was a totally new part from a new supplier. I can't think of anything on the lightning that is actually new, new. The battery and motors are different than the mach-e but can be from the same supplier using the same manufacturing processes just a different design. The independent rear suspension isn't anything novel (and exists on the expedition). The frunk is the only thing actually new, but it's just a trunk. They already manufacture power liftgates and trunk lids on other vehicles. The frame is slightly different, but again this is just a modified design sourced from the same supplier as the million other truck frames that they use in a year.
It seems to me like Ford has done as much as they can to make the launch of the lightning as smooth as possible. Hopefully they won't have any more issues than they have between generations of any other vehicle (and hopefully less...looking at you explorer). They honestly cannot afford to screw up the launch of this. Everyone who is doubting that an electric truck can succeed will be pointing at every fault possible to say..."I'll stick with my gas engine thanks".

Point Taken - I guess I am more concerned about the new factory and all it's moving parts: robots and their software, worker training, and parts availability when the part is shared with another model - "mount of a ICE F-150 or a Lightning?".
Thanks for helping think this through.

 

[euchre_u]

So let's tease on the thought of "Reservation" versus an "Order". An Order implies that a "Reservation" has been converted through a Ford dealership's ordering system, correct? Meaning that like ordering a combustion-engined F-150, there probably is some sort of additional monies needed to be put down with the Ford dealer to complete the order. So there was a $100 "Reservation" fee that was refundable. Now a customer will be required to put down how much to make the order? Another $500USD? Another $1,000USD? Now the conversation becomes a lot more real to the people who put in a $100 "Reservation". I think dealers could command at least $1,000 to convert a "Reservation" to an "Order" for the Lightning - perhaps even $2,000 to $2,500. Sure, you will get those funds applied to the purchase price, but there are those people out there that $100 is not too high of a hurdle to put in a "Reservation", but $2,500 (plus the initial $100) to convert to an order may be too much and they decline to convert to an order.

The question is then of the 200,000 initial "Reservations" what does the conversion rate look like? FIfty percent (50%)? Twenty five percent (25%)? Let's say that the 15,000 initial production units gets moved up to 20,000 or maybe 25,000 units. A 25% conversion rate of 200,000 units is 50,000 units for the first year - which is double their initial year's production of 25,000. (Hang with me here, just talking out my pie-hole here). Ford will want to have some showroom stock for the dealers as well, so I suspect that the first 5,000 or so units will be stock units rather than retail order units.

It could be feasible that if your Lightning reservation was within 100,000 to 120,000 reservations - depending on the conversion rate to actual orders - that you MIGHT get to see a MY22 Lightning.

If you want a MY22 Lightning and you're very serious about ordering / receiving the vehicle, then I'm guessing you may want to be advocating for a high order down payment to "cut the wheat from the chaffe" as it were.

Just my $0.02 . . . . If someone has already hypothesized this scenario on another thread - my apologies in advance.

 

[astricklin]

Point Taken - I guess I am more concerned about the new factory and all it's moving parts: robots and their software, worker training, and parts availability when the part is shared with another model - "mount of a ICE F-150 or a Lightning?".
Thanks for helping think this through.

For me, I guess this is where I trust someone like Ford or VW or the other legacy automakers to be able to execute better than Tesla or rivian or another startup. This is certainly not the first time Ford has spun up a new production line at a new facility. The Mach-e seems to be well built so far and other than the hard top issues, I haven't heard of any other Bronco issues (and I've not seen anything major about the Bronco sport either).

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