Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[sotek2345]

Food for thought.. the conversion rate(reservation to order) for the Bronco was/is around 66%.

Yeah, I know. So with that conversion rate I am 60k or so in line which would be a 2025 truck. Very not happy if true.....

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[Fordskeptic]

Damn, Gonna be a bunch of impatient and upset people. Hopefully I'm not one. I put my reservation in very early.

I was a late adopter, so I will probably be disappointed ?. It is what it is. Maybe GM will be taking orders on the Silerado by the time my Ford res. number gets called. It is good to have more choices and competition in the etruck market.

 

[shutterbug]

Reservation number is 10968977, so about 150kish in line assuming the start was 1082xxxx

https://www.f150gen14.com/forum/thr...s-for-2022-f-150-lightning-sign-in-here.3702/
I think the earliest reservations were 10813xxx. I'm assuming the 4 lowest numbers are typos as the dates seem to be wrong. Also we don't know if fleet orders are included in this reservation number scheme.

 

[greenne]

Yeah, I know. So with that conversion rate I am 60k or so in line which would be a 2025 truck. Very not happy if true.....

I'm not getting the math here. If you're reservation around 90k, then 66% of 90k is 59,400 that would put you solid in 2023. (15k first year, additional 55k 2nd year)

 

[Losi]

If it’s any consolation I will be taking delivery probably somewhere around 2030, order date 7/24 #11104336/Hawaii. Aloha

 

[sotek2345]

I'm not getting the math here. If you're reservation around 90k, then 66% of 90k is 59,400 that would put you solid in 2023. (15k first year, additional 55k 2nd year)

Yeah, with luck it might be a 2024. 60k total production by the end of 2024,which is where I am. Then you have to add a few months for shipping to the dealer. So if they hold those numbers it is spring 2024.

If they are counting years starting with spring of 2022 (production start), then I would be late into 2024 which would be a 2025 model year.

 

[greenne]

Yeah, with luck it might be a 2024. 60k total production by the end of 2024,which is where I am. Then you have to add a few months for shipping to the dealer. So if they hold those numbers it is spring 2024.

If they are counting years starting with spring of 2022 (production start), then I would be late into 2024 which would be a 2025 model year.

You mean 60-70k by the end of 2023....

15k in Spring - Dec 2022
additional 55k in 2023

70k by Dec 2023(maybe?)

 

[Sdctcher]

I apologize in advance. I feel like I am hogging this thread. I'll stop after this.

You high reservation holders don't completely despair. Ford is making the rules and only they know what they are and we will never know what happens on the inside. If you really really want a Lightning, stay in the game. If not, get your $100 back now and help move up real wannas.

If anything, Ford is a master of marketing. High number holders could be bumped if they are in a smaller state. Ford may want representative Lightnings sprinkled around for publicity. When I got my first hybrid. local news covered it after a call from the dealer and my photo was posted in the dealer's for years.

Each dealer may get one for their showroom and they will promptly put a "SOLD" sign on it, sold or not. Chevrolet Dealers do this for Corvettes. Friends of Dealers will end up with this Lightning, reserved or not.

Ford has a great database of prospective buyer profiles they use extensively in their email campaigns. If they believe you will be a "Good Ambassador" you may get bumped. If you are a "Personality" or "High Profile" you may get bumped.

I owned and moderated a Ford-related forum for 16 years and I know that Ford monitored threads for input. I know for sure because I chatted offline for years with these watchers. Super-active members may get bumped.

If you are a professional engineer, electrician or manage a fleet you may get bumped.

If you live in an extreme climate Ford may want to monitor your Lightning as a test and you may get bumped.

And on and on. It is a bit like UFO Conspiracy. We can never know what they know. After spending Billions on this new truck Ford will use every advantage they can to guarantee success. Ford will remember Edsel forever. I am sure the reservation process is no strict democracy, but that is OK with me.

 

[sotek2345]

You mean 60-70k by the end of 2023....

15k in Spring - Dec 2022
additional 55k in 2023

70k by Dec 2023(maybe?)

OK, you made me feel a little better. Apparently I can't math tonight. I haz the dumb.

 

[RLXXI]

I really do not think you should spend a lot of time worrying about the rebate. The smart money is on a scenero whereas the parties (Labor vs Corp., GM and Tesla vs Ford) will not be able to agree this year (in the proposed 3.5 T Bill) on any big changes in tax credit law and this will not be decided until after the 2022 elections. As a buyer of the Platinum I am hoping they do not put in any limitation of income or cost of vehicle until I buy. Also I want to pull a substantial amount out of my IRA to fully use the $7,500 in 2022 credited in 2023.

I do think they will reset the credit next year to reopen to other brands who have already used their allotment but otherwise leave the big changes to later. I also hope they will allow a tax credit for installation of home and business charger stations.

I'm not worried about it at all, just that it would be nice to get it. As I said, I planned my budget around NOT getting it. Hope for the best, expect the worst and you'll never be disappointed.

Something my mom taught me a long time ago and she was spot on.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

I apologize in advance. I feel like I am hogging this thread. I'll stop after this.

You high reservation holders don't completely despair. Ford is making the rules and only they know what they are and we will never know what happens on the inside. If you really really want a Lightning, stay in the game. If not, get your $100 back now and help move up real wannas.

If anything, Ford is a master of marketing. High number holders could be bumped if they are in a smaller state. Ford may want representative Lightnings sprinkled around for publicity. When I got my first hybrid. local news covered it after a call from the dealer and my photo was posted in the dealer's for years.

Each dealer may get one for their showroom and they will promptly put a "SOLD" sign on it, sold or not. Chevrolet Dealers do this for Corvettes. Friends of Dealers will end up with this Lightning, reserved or not.

Ford has a great database of prospective buyer profiles they use extensively in their email campaigns. If they believe you will be a "Good Ambassador" you may get bumped. If you are a "Personality" or "High Profile" you may get bumped.

I owned and moderated a Ford-related forum for 16 years and I know that Ford monitored threads for input. I know for sure because I chatted offline for years with these watchers. Super-active members may get bumped.

If you are a professional engineer, electrician or manage a fleet you may get bumped.

If you live in an extreme climate Ford may want to monitor your Lightning as a test and you may get bumped.

And on and on. It is a bit like UFO Conspiracy. We can never know what they know. After spending Billions on this new truck Ford will use every advantage they can to guarantee success. Ford will remember Edsel forever. I am sure the reservation process is no strict democracy, but that is OK with me.

That’s some interesting stuff, thank you for sharing. See, i’m becoming a super active member already! None of the other reasons to get bumped apply, so, hey....

 

[RLXXI]

https://www.f150gen14.com/forum/thr...s-for-2022-f-150-lightning-sign-in-here.3702/
I think the earliest reservations were 10813xxx. I'm assuming the 4 lowest numbers are typos as the dates seem to be wrong. Also we don't know if fleet orders are included in this reservation number scheme.

Mine is 10813663 . I reserved the second after the intro when the link popped up. I still don't think any of that number has anything to do with place in line. What it does represent is still a mystery.

 

[TRP]

Mine is 10813663 . I reserved the second after the intro when the link popped up. I still don't think any of that number has anything to do with place in line. What it does represent is still a mystery.

What I know about that number is it represents ALL reservations, not just Lightnings. So you can't just look at them as Lightning reservations sequentially. Mine is 109----, I forget the last few, but the point is we are not 100000 places apart in Lightning reservations.

Now as far as what that means for when you get your and I get mine ?‍

 

[vandy1981]

Food for thought.. the conversion rate(reservation to order) for the Bronco was/is around 66%.

I can't imagine that the F150L conversion rate will be anywhere near that--the big Bronco is a singular vehicle competing against an already established competitor, whereas the F150L is going to be competing against other new BEV trucks for reservation follow-through. I personally know a few people who hold multiple reservations for different models (R1T, CT, etc.) and I would not be surprised if there's a lot more out there with low reservation numbers.

 

[TRP]

I can't imagine that the F150L conversion rate will be anywhere near that--the big Bronco is a singular vehicle competing against an already established competitor, whereas the F150L is going to be competing against other new BEV trucks for reservation follow-through. I personally know a few people who hold multiple reservations for different models (R1T, CT, etc.) and I would not be surprised if there's a lot more out there with low reservation numbers.

What I don't understand tho is that the 3 you mention, F150L, R1T, CT, are all very different vehicles.

F150L is, well, an F150 truck

R1T is smaller and geared towards the outdoor lifestyle folks. Cool truck, but not a F150. Closer to a Ranger in size.

CT, well, it's a CT and who knows when it will ever hit the streets. Just read of another push back on delivery time frame.

IMHO, you can compare them to one another. Other than being electric, and if that's your draw, there are cheaper options available.

To our point, will people drop out before delivery. Absolutely, in fact, I expect them to. Better for me as a late comer

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