Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Brian Head Yankee]

Any additional deposit required is between you and your dealer. I did not pay an additional deposit on my Bronco order and I assume that a dealer will not require a deposit on the Lightning. A dealer would LOVE you to decline delivery so they can slap ADM on it.

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[TN F-150]

120,000 reservations at $100/reservation is a $12m interest free loan.
If they convert 50% of those reservations to orders with a $2,000 deposit that’s another $120m more. But there’s no binding agreement with the customers that are funding this “Go Fund me” page with any sort of commitment that they will end up with a Lightning in a specified period of time?

 

[Maxx]

120,000 reservations at $100/reservation is a $12m interest free loan.
If they convert 50% of those reservations to orders with a $2,000 deposit that’s another $120m more. But there’s no binding agreement with the customers that are funding this “Go Fund me” page with any sort of commitment that they will end up with a Lightning in a specified period of time?

If there was a $2000 deposit, it would not go to Ford. So it can't add up to $120m.

 

[TN F-150]

That’s almost worse than Ford getting it. So now I may have my $2,000 deposit sitting at a dealership for 2-3 years?

 

[Maxx]

That’s almost worse than Ford getting it. So now I may have my $2,000 deposit sitting at a dealership for 2-3 years?

I am fairly sure you can find a dealer in your state that does not require it and when you switch to them, you will get your $100 back so you will have no deposit after you order.

 

[TN F-150]

Maxx
My problem with my perception of this process is two-fold:
First there’s the money, but second there appears to be no binding agreement that results in a vehicle in a specified period of time. From what I’m hearing from those that replied is that, “delivery is a moving target that may get canceled and revised upwards in price.”

 

[shutterbug]

120,000 reservations at $100/reservation is a $12m interest free loan.
If they convert 50% of those reservations to orders with a $2,000 deposit that’s another $120m more. But there’s no binding agreement with the customers that are funding this “Go Fund me” page with any sort of commitment that they will end up with a Lightning in a specified period of time?

When I placed reservation for Mustang Mach-E, the initial $500 deposit was charged to my credit card by Ford. Then when I converted to order, I got credit from Ford and a charge for the same amount from the dealer. With Lightning, the reservation deposit was from the dealer. So it's likely that Ford isn't even touching that $100.

 

[SteffanG]

They are BROADLY sequential, like I said. Yeah, if you and I were ~2k actual reservations apart, we might have numbers in the wrong order, but if you reserve now, you're not going to get a lower number than someone who reserved on Day 1. The numbers may be +/- 5k, for instance, but they're not completely random. They're not all grabbing from a completely different group of numbers (no duplicates). If you did a scatter plot of the reservations based on reservation number and actual order of reservation, it would clearly show a relationship between the two. Later reservations *generally* get higher numbers, outside of a relatively small +/- range. That's what I mean by broadly sequential.

I placed my order 20 mins after the presentation started and I am at 108271**

There is one I found on the lost of numbers who reserved on reveal day and it is 10841***

 

[astricklin]

Maxx
My problem with my perception of this process is two-fold:
First there’s the money, but second there appears to be no binding agreement that results in a vehicle in a specified period of time. From what I’m hearing from those that replied is that, “delivery is a moving target that may get canceled and revised upwards in price.”

That's just legal fine print so they can cover their ass. I don't think the bronco or the Mach-e strayed from announced pricing. However they could adjust trim levels, add or remove equipment and have slight differences in final pricing for the 2022 trucks. The base model will still be $39,995 and I feel like the other trims should be within $1000 of their announced pricing (unless they lower any prices). Ford wouldn't have published these prices if they weren't confident they could meet them.
Now how things play out with orders that don't get filled until the second or third model year, I'm going to guess they'll do like the Bronco and anyone who has a pre-order before orders open and places an order in the in stated initial order period will lock in pricing as long as they don't modify their order at a later date.

As has been for decades, and because of how the dealership system works, Ford corporate will always have a disclaimer that final pricing is set by the dealer on any vehicle pricing advertised.

 

[shutterbug]

I don't think the bronco or the Mach-e strayed from announced pricing.

Mustang Mach-E actually got its price lowered by $3K ($1K on First Edition).

 

[Lime Green]

@Lime Green would you mind sharing your reservation numbers (with the last three digits x'd out)? It would be interesting to see how the numbers progressed over that short period of time.

As others have stated, reservation numbers are not sequential. The one I made second is actually a lower number. They are at two different dealerships. The one I made first is 10814xxx and the one I made second is 10813xxx. There is some sequential timing to the numbers in some ways, as I don’t have a 1082Xxxx number I guess.

All that matters in the end is reservation time stamp, configuration/ trim level and delivery logistics. Reservation number means diddly poop.

 

[TN F-150]

I want to know the real reason why Ford is slowing their roll here. Isn’t it correct that that the MachE had first year production limited to about 50k units due to anticipated battery availability? And that was for a new unproven model.

Ford has already made agreements with two battery manufacturers and is in the process of building their very own battery manufacturing facility.

The F150 is the best selling vehicle in America. They had to expect that reservations/orders would be large numbers. They’re marketing to both retail and fleet buyers. And yet, first year production is scheduled at 1/3 of what the MachE roll out was. I don’t get it.

Second generation Lightnings look to be scheduled hot on the heels of the initial production run. Is Ford not convinced of the efficacy of the roll out model?

I know marketing and production are always butting heads. But Ford is slamming on the brakes here and it would be nice to know why.

 

[Maxx]

Second generation Lightnings look to be scheduled hot on the heels of the initial production run. Is Ford not convinced of the efficacy of the roll out model?

I know marketing and production are always butting heads. But Ford is slamming on the brakes here and it would be nice to know why.

This is just a guess:

It is possible that larger supply of chips and batteries won’t kick in until 2023-2024

It is possible BMS is not fully tested and 15K recall is better than 50K recall, Lightening is more likely to be stressed out by additional load more than Mach-E did due to towing and load.

It is possible that Ford is leaving some room for complications, expecting to start production in mid 2022. at the rate of 50K annually starting slow and ramping up which would mean around 15K for 22

I think first generation Lightening is mostly frankensteined to get it out the door quickly using as much of the ICE F150 as possible since they are created concurrently. If Ford is serious about BEVs they are designing a real BEV truck to replace ICE at some point. Frankly battery tech is not quite there yet. I am not sure if that is 2nd or 3rd gen but it takes a lot more time to produce at levels and prices ICE is being produced.

 

[Bippers]

I think first generation Lightening is mostly frankensteined to get it out the door quickly using as much of the ICE F150 as possible since they are created concurrently. If Ford is serious about BEVs they are designing a real BEV truck to replace ICE at some point. Frankly battery tech is not quite there yet. I am not sure if that is 2nd or 3rd gen but it takes a lot more time to produce at levels and prices ICE is being produced.

Even if it is frankensteined with ICE parts that should mean the first generation will have good parts support for long-life use for anything not related to the EV drivetrain. If the new revision is created from the ground up as an EV it may not be as easy to source parts in the long term. This is one reason I really like the current version since I know I can wrench and modify parts to upgrade say the pro trim over a 10+ year lifetime.

 

[TN F-150]

I also keep my vehicles for a long time, 20+ years. Just see my vehicle list to the left.
But now I’m wondering if the current battery pack is a short term solution that may be replace with solid state technology in the second edition. And maybe that’s why Ford is dragging their feet.

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