Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[TN F-150]

Did a little research on Ford fleet sales. It appears they go through a different registration system than the reservation system we are talking about here. A commercial customer fills out the pertinent information and how many units of each trim they are interested in. Then Ford notifies them when ordering time comes. “The volume of vehicles requested will help guide Ford in the vehicle allocation process.”

So Ford has two sets of customers to take care of when it comes ordering time: their retail customers and their commercial fleet customers.

As said here earlier, 1st year production capacity is limited to 15k units. Some percentage of that volume will be directed toward retail and the other toward commercial based upon Ford’s Allocation Mindset at the time. If Ford deems it more important to direct most of the first year production run to commercial sales, then even very early retail reservations may be waiting for years before their reservation is validated.

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[Maxx]

Did a little research on Ford fleet sales. It appears they go through a different registration system than the reservation system we are talking about here. A commercial customer fills out the pertinent information and how many units of each trim they are interested in. Then Ford notifies them when ordering time comes. “The volume of vehicles requested will help guide Ford in the vehicle allocation process.”

So Ford has two sets of customers to take care of when it comes ordering time: their retail customers and their commercial fleet customers.

As said here earlier, 1st year production capacity is limited to 15k units. Some percentage of that volume will be directed toward retail and the other toward commercial based upon Ford’s Allocation Mindset at the time. If Ford deems it more important to direct most of the first year production run to commercial sales, then even very early retail reservations may be waiting for years before their reservation is validated.

All true. Fleet customers don't have a lot of EV choices near Pro price. CT1 will not be ready anytime soon if ever but commercial customers with multiple reservations will have have some choices. If ford expect to make most of it's Pro money out of fleet services, commercial Pro customer is out of luck.

I for one will get a Pro for sure if it is available to me in 2022 but the closer the time gap between CT and Pro, the less likely I get the Pro.

 

[sotek2345]

Did a little research on Ford fleet sales. It appears they go through a different registration system than the reservation system we are talking about here. A commercial customer fills out the pertinent information and how many units of each trim they are interested in. Then Ford notifies them when ordering time comes. “The volume of vehicles requested will help guide Ford in the vehicle allocation process.”

So Ford has two sets of customers to take care of when it comes ordering time: their retail customers and their commercial fleet customers.

As said here earlier, 1st year production capacity is limited to 15k units. Some percentage of that volume will be directed toward retail and the other toward commercial based upon Ford’s Allocation Mindset at the time. If Ford deems it more important to direct most of the first year production run to commercial sales, then even very early retail reservations may be waiting for years before their reservation is validated.

To be fair, if this truck is as successful / desired for commercial use as many of us suspect, Ford could easily divert all of this generation Lightning production (through 2025)to fleet owners leaving few (if any) for retail customers.

 

[SteffanG]

Ford may avoid selling the pro to retail customers by putting them off and prioritizing the lariat/platinum trims since they make more money on those ones. Them giving all the commercial customers a bunch of pro trucks instead of retail lariat/platinum likely won't happen as any company wants to sell the higher dollar vehicles as much as they can. They may say that all of them will be made at the same time, but behind closed doors they may also prioritize the higher margin trucks.

 

[Skynetf150]

Considering the Lightning will be somewhat limited upon introduction, I may as well wait for the 2nd generation in 2025. At least the bugs should be worked out.

I think that's what I'm going to do wait for the next gen 2025 model and hopefully it will have a regular cab option

 

[wingfiry]

I would be shocked but delighted if solid state was ready for the mass market in 2025.

We are in the "smartphone era" of BEVs at the moment--there's always going to be a substantial spec upgrade around the corner.

They've been promising solid state batteries for smartphones for at least 6 years now. I'm certainly not going to hold my breath for SSBs for vehicles.

 

[greenne]

They've been promising solid state batteries for smartphones for at least 6 years now. I'm certainly not going to hold my breath for SSBs for vehicles.

I think they are going to proceed very carefully on any type of battery technology. Nobody wants another Chevy Bolt or Samsung Note 7 type situation....

 

[Ciancagl]

How are we so sure the people that “reserved” first are going to get them first? We don’t think they have a “x” amount allotted to specific regions/dealers based off orders?

From a delivery/logistics standpoint, I cant see a world where they’re basically leaving it up to the consumer as to where the first 15k will be delivered and what trim level they will be.

 

[astricklin]

How are we so sure the people that “reserved” first are going to get them first? We don’t think they have a “x” amount allotted to specific regions/dealers based off orders?

From a delivery/logistics standpoint, I cant see a world where they’re basically leaving it up to the consumer as to where the first 15k will be delivered and what trim level they will be.

To me it would seem that they'll pretty much be able to build based on orders as long as they don't way miscalculate the number of extended vs standard batteries needed. The motors and rest of the drivetrain components will be the same on all the trucks and then the interior (save for the big tablet infotainment) is shared with the rest of the f-150 line.

 

[BottledLightning]

How are we so sure the people that “reserved” first are going to get them first? We don’t think they have a “x” amount allotted to specific regions/dealers based off orders?

From a delivery/logistics standpoint, I cant see a world where they’re basically leaving it up to the consumer as to where the first 15k will be delivered and what trim level they will be.

Somewhat correct. For Bronco the factors were as follows, in sequential order: Allocation to a region/dealership (based upon multiple factors), parts available to build the various trim levels, and finally your reservation time stamp.

 

[DJ NV]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-ford-doubles-lightning-production-193019622.html

Exclusive-Ford doubles Lightning production target on strong pre-launch demand -sources

August 23, 2021

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co has doubled its production target for the F-150 Lightning because of strong early demand for the full-sized electric pickup truck ahead of its 2022 launch, and the company plans to spend an additional $850 million to meet that target, several people and suppliers familiar with the plans said.

The No. 2 U.S. automaker is targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources, who asked not to be identified. Shares of Ford rose 1.3% on Monday.

"They were pleasantly surprised by the demand for the Lightning," one of the sources said of Ford officials.

Industry observers have questioned whether individual buyers will give up their gas-powered pickups for electric models, but commercial customers are pushing for electric trucks and vans to reduce their carbon footprints.

The ramp to the new production target includes plans to build about 15,000 next year after the electric truck's spring launch

I remember this post:

https://www.f150gen14.com/forum/thr...on-output-in-first-year-says-ceo-farley.3719/

months ago when I did my reservation, and I was thinking "oh S___T", where I took it as they were thinking to build only 80,000 for the the first year; I reserved at around 1 am on Saturday morning of the week of the reveal.

I was hoping that I would be a first year as order conversion rate would probably put me a good deal under the first 80,000.

Now only 15,000 for the first year ... wow.

I reserved a Bronco last July and have been riding the Bronco roller coaster since then, being on the forum everyday.

Then Ford debuts the Lightning ... to took a couple of days for it to sink in and I reserved that Saturday early AM.

I always liked the F150, so much capability and love the interior room (coming from a sedan, you can live in a back seat area of the F150 ... ... ... just to make sure, i don't live in the car {just in case someone would think that}).

With that now you also get a trunk and no longer have to get gas or do oil changes or most regular PM's.

I got sold on EVs and now I was so ready to get this Lightning.

The garage won't fit it back to front, but I measured 3 or 4 times now and we would have got it in
diagonally.

The Bronco I have on order is a 2 door with a 2.7L, so I figured that Lightning would probably more than likely be built before the Bronco and we are more than happy to choose to get the Lightning instead and that's one of the big reasons I decided to put my reservation in.

Now only 15,000 for the first year ... .

I was looking to replace my vehicle last year and that's when I found and decided Bronco and thought when I reserved a little over a year later the Bronco would be built.

Now Ford would probably build that 2 years after my reservation.

Then we found the Lightning would meet our needs for the family much better (despite having to shoe horn the truck into garage) ... and i have to wait for Ford into a third or more years post my Bronco reservation to maybe build the Lightning.

If you guys were not ready to get this out in a decent number to meet a deal of the demand, why did you tell us about it and get our hopes up ... a lot of people are staring at 2 years to get their reserved unit; or maybe more ... that's not cool.

I'd have been better off on the Bronco roller coaster and getting sick off it's ups and downs and thinking it would be built next year and that would be the only vehicle the family would be waiting and excited for.

 

[vandy1981]

Allocation to a region/dealership (based upon multiple factors)

What were those region/dealership factors?

On a somewhat related note, I saw one of the big Broncos in the wild for the first time. It was parked next to a Wrangler Unlimited and absolutely dwarfed that thing.

 

[wattdon]

As someone who is looking into EV conversions of classic cars as well I figure a battery swap of the first gen seems fairly simple since it is less an integral structural component than say like in a Tesla Model 3. The battery sits within the frame rails and someone with a lift could easily drop, design, and replace the battery with something custom in the future. This is of course barring some ECU bypasses which I'm sure either third party or open source will solve as time goes on.

I would rather have one that appears to be upgradeable than one that is a mystery. The devil I know vs the devil I don't etc.

This snip is from today's Ford Authority News 8/28/2021. Mach-E motor for panning at upcoming SEMA Show - to get you thinking of your classic car to EV conversion.

 

[wattdon]

This snip is from today's Ford Authority News 8/28/2021. Mach-E motor for panning at upcoming SEMA Show - to get you thinking of your classic car to EV conversion.

 

[KTmax]

What order number(1st 15,000 order?)would my reservation be if the number is on 5/20/21 Reservation 10869848?

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