Given that, do you expect a large number of current reservation holders to be bumped completely out of this generation of Lightning (and into the planned 2025 refresh)? In other words, is the Gen 1 electric lightning already sold out?
Batteries are definitely the battleground. Carmakers want to make their own, battery makers want to leapfrog each other with technology. Nobody wants to start with a 2021 technology and deliver a vehicle in 2025 that's obsolescent. So they have a two-pronged approach:
The new Lightning won't be a refresh. It will launch on an all new platform. 2026 model launching in 2025 calendar year.
I still have the same question - do we think current (or near term future) reservation holders will be pushed out that far (high conversion rate and Ford coming in lower than projected for annual production)
It's hard to say but If you are a current reservation holder my hunch is not likely. Nationwide Bronco had about 60% of reservations actually convert to orders. I assume Lightning will be a smaller percentage than that but could be wrong. We tried guessing how many reservations our dealership would get the night of the reveal and they came in way above our guesses. some of the current unknown in terms of reservations is how many hand raisers are there in the commercial realm, how many demo units (if any, though they have done them for Bronco, Bronco Sport, and Mach-E) will be built, and will there be stock units (personal guess is they will try to avoid that)? Ford does not count commercial hand raisers as reservation holders and I haven't found a report as to how many there are.
Probably not. If you go by the numbers in the article I linked, it would be 15k next year, 55k for 2023 and 80k every year after that. That's 150k for the first 3 years.
I am at 10830xxx as well but I did it at the end of presentation with some delays. If you did it when it opened, then the server theory is correct and our numbers are not that meaningful. But according to ford, all of us in that day are within the first 20K so if 70% go through with the order 14,000 should cover everyone that made reservation in the first 12 hours. of course there are all kinds of unforseen complications that may result in Ford not producing that 15,000 in 2022. Let's hope that is not the case.
230k total, not 330k right? Also these are targets and Ford may not be able to hit them.
I'm with your optimism, but in marketing, at least if I applied enterprise technology marketing principles to the auto industry, what I see them doing is calc'ing all factors into a number that the board approves. That number includes what @Pioneer74 tells us:
This results in a formula to guesstimate based on what's happened with other vehicles, the rate of attrition (reservations that don't turn into orders) and production planning (supply side logistics) with no idea of what happens if a disease sweeps through the factory or slows the economy, etc. So I wouldn't hold anyone to those numbers; I'm just pleased to see decent sized numbers and a realistic 2023-2025 time frame.
That's what I'm thinking. I reserved on the 26th, one week after reveal, and I'm thinking if everybody in front of me doesn't cancel their reservation, I'll be lucky to get mine in middle to late 2023.
Thats assuming the credit doesn't get expanded and/or extended. There's lots of signs it will be...
With this political climate, I'm not taking anything into consideration until something is signed. Too many people with too many angles on both sides of the isle.
Yes there was a “hint” of sarcasm in there. Haha
