Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[ShirBlackspots]

Probably not. If you go by the numbers in the article I linked, it would be 15k next year, 55k for 2023 and 80k every year after that. That's 150k for the first 3 years.

2022 15k
2023 55k
2024 80k
2025 80k

230k total.

That's supposed to be 160,000 in 2025 when they switch to the TE1 platform.

Remember, the next year's model year starts in the 4th quarter of the previous year (that would be September. Sometimes as early as the 3rd quarter - or July)

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[shutterbug]

That's what I'm thinking. I reserved on the 26th, one week after reveal, and I'm thinking if everybody in front of me doesn't cancel their reservation, I'll be lucky to get mine in middle to late 2023.

Between the Ecape plug in hybrid, Lightning, Transit EV and Mach-E the remaining credits will go fast

If there are only 15,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. My guess is that Ford will hit their limit at the end of 2022, which means you will have 1st half of 2023 to buy a vehicle and still qualify for full credit.

 

[Pioneer74]

That's supposed to be 160,000 in 2025 when they switch to the TE1 platform.

Remember, the next year's model year starts in the 4th quarter of the previous year (that would be September. Sometimes as early as the 3rd quarter - or July)

New platform will be 2026 model year.

 

[Pioneer74]

If there are only 15,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. My guess is that Ford will hit their limit at the end of 2022, which means you will have 1st half of 2023 to buy a vehicle and still qualify for full credit.

We'll see. I'm going to try to double-dip with a Mach-E. The wife and I have 2 leases and both end in the middle of 2023.

 

[Sapphire]

Granger is well below MSRP. Shoot them a message, they're good people and they'll answer your questions to the best of their ability (even if you don't have a reservation with them).

I agree, I’m planning to message them once pricing is available and they know what they’ll be able to offer. I think I read a message from one of them on here saying they don’t know yet.

 

[Granger Ford]

This is encouraging. I fully expect my local dealer to tell me to get bent when I ask for a bit below or at MSRP. If we have an ordering window, that would at least give me some time to check other dealers. I’m willing to drive out to @Granger Ford too, depending on whether they are able to go below MSRP, based on the stellar feedback.

Pm us for pricing. We cannot advertise pricing below MSRP.

Our business model with the lightning falls in line with our policy on F-150. ? It's well known how we price our F-150s here.

Please PM me for more information. If you'd like 100% confirmation.

 

[Lime Green]

You can get a pro with extended range if you’re a commercial customer. ??‍?

Well, I am a commercial customer and I have a Pro reservation and have been told I can get the extended battery. There are some catches though…. I almost certainly won’t be getting it in 2022 and now maybe not until 2023 if these quantities and demand numbers are an indicator. Large fleet customers have priority and that may very well push my order into ‘23. I also have two regular reservations. The dealership and I have basically determined, based on available info, that I can get an XLT from one of my regular reservations at a similar price point to the Pro since I can do better than X-Plan. And that reservation was made just minutes after the reveal event ended. I have another reservation made about the time the reservations went live as the event was about to start. I plan on using that for my personal truck in Lariat+ or Platinum trim.

I doubt the new factory is the limit, production constraints are all about the batteries. Ford should have no problems building every truck they can get batteries for, but they need the cells and they are hard to find anywhere in the world. Global production capacity just isn't there and new battery factories can only be built so fast.

This. All known limitations are due to battery availability. There may well indeed be other parts constraints, but none that will hold up anything more than the batteries. The Lightning production at the Rouge should be quite capable to ramp up serious quantity if batteries and all other components are available. …This is going to take some time.

 

[Granger Ford]

I'm surprised they volume is so low. I guess it's good to aim low to start. I know the battery production takes a long runway (think 12 months+) to get orders in. So if you haven't reserved, expect a wait.

 

[sotek2345]

I'm surprised they volume is so low. I guess it's good to aim low to start. I know the battery production takes a long runway (think 12 months+) to get orders in. So if you haven't reserved, expect a wait.

Shouldn't all of us (save those who reserved in the first 5 minutes or so) expect a wait?

 

[shutterbug]

Shouldn't all of us (save those who reserved in the first 5 minutes or so) expect a wait?

I think even if you reserved in the first 5 minutes, there will be a serious wait. And that's if no new issues crop up.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

New platform will be 2026 model year.

ALL the articles say 2025 is the new platform.

 

[sotek2345]

I think even if you reserved in the first 5 minutes, there will be a serious wait. And that's if no new issues crop up.

Well there is late 2022/early 2023 with production delays waiting, and then "just go buy another car now, you will have it paid off before your ticket comes up" waiting.

 

[Pioneer74]

ALL the articles say 2025 is the new platform.

No, they don't.

After the second-generation Lightning launches in late 2025, the annual target is about 160,000, Reuters wrote.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...ord-f-150-lightning-ford-electric/8254023002/

You really think Ford is going to launch the 2025 model year late in 2025? No. It will be a 2026.

 

[ShirBlackspots]

If that's what you want to believe how you read it, then I guess that's how it is.

 

[Kiggulak]

So let's tease on the thought of "Reservation" versus an "Order". An Order implies that a "Reservation" has been converted through a Ford dealership's ordering system, correct? Meaning that like ordering a combustion-engined F-150, there probably is some sort of additional monies needed to be put down with the Ford dealer to complete the order. So there was a $100 "Reservation" fee that was refundable. Now a customer will be required to put down how much to make the order? Another $500USD? Another $1,000USD? Now the conversation becomes a lot more real to the people who put in a $100 "Reservation". I think dealers could command at least $1,000 to convert a "Reservation" to an "Order" for the Lightning - perhaps even $2,000 to $2,500. Sure, you will get those funds applied to the purchase price, but there are those people out there that $100 is not too high of a hurdle to put in a "Reservation", but $2,500 (plus the initial $100) to convert to an order may be too much and they decline to convert to an order.

The question is then of the 200,000 initial "Reservations" what does the conversion rate look like? FIfty percent (50%)? Twenty five percent (25%)? Let's say that the 15,000 initial production units gets moved up to 20,000 or maybe 25,000 units. A 25% conversion rate of 200,000 units is 50,000 units for the first year - which is double their initial year's production of 25,000. (Hang with me here, just talking out my pie-hole here). Ford will want to have some showroom stock for the dealers as well, so I suspect that the first 5,000 or so units will be stock units rather than retail order units.

It could be feasible that if your Lightning reservation was within 100,000 to 120,000 reservations - depending on the conversion rate to actual orders - that you MIGHT get to see a MY22 Lightning.

If you want a MY22 Lightning and you're very serious about ordering / receiving the vehicle, then I'm guessing you may want to be advocating for a high order down payment to "cut the wheat from the chaffe" as it were.

Just my $0.02 . . . . If someone has already hypothesized this scenario on another thread - my apologies in advance.

My dealer has called me and confirmed no additional monies to convert from reservation to order as well as no penalty for cancelling my order after conversion. They have enough demand for the lightning to be able to find a new owner for my order should I bail at the last minute.

I'm still waiting to see what congress does with the EV tax rebate. I'm looking to secure the rebate in 2022-2023 and I don't want to lock up more of my money up front. All of the features on the Lightning make it the obvious choice at the price point but take away the current $7500 rebate and there are other vehicles that can fill most of my needs, especially as Tesla opens their superchargers to other car manufacturers.

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