Video: 2022 F-150 Lightning Order Process Summary [Long McArthur Ford]

[TF1000]

Discontinued is the key word.

But Carbonized Gray isn't a discontinued color. At least I hope not. It's my first choice for the lightning.

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[shutterbug]

But Carbonized Gray isn't a discontinued color. At least I hope not. It's my first choice for the lightning.

So does this mean they ran out of the color? Or simply decided not to offer it on MME?

 

[TF1000]

They stopped making gray with a slight bluish hint and another shade of gray. And those colors were not used on any other models.

Well here I thought you said they stopped making the gray color but I guess you meant not offering it on the Mach E

 

[EVTruckGuy]

I'm not sure I like the part about certain configurations possibly being unavailable at the time of your order. I'm around the first 20k reservations so I expect an early wave invitation, and I'll be really disappointed if for some reason there aren't any Pros available to order.

I hope you get an early wave invitation, but I would keep your expectations tempered.

If your reservation is around number 20,000, you won't be anywhere near the early wave unless you get a priority bump by your dealer. Your dealer's allocation could also play a role here too, which may or may not end up working out to your advantage.

I think most people are just hoping Ford can actually make 20,000 the first year, which is a big "maybe," so that means you will most likely be one of the last 2022 ordering waves. If you are number 20,000 you should be prepared to potentially not even get the opportunity to order a 2022.

Then again I don't have a crystal ball, so we can all hope the estimates about how many Ford can make the first year are waaaay underestimating the actual production numbers.

My reservation is probably between numbers 8,000 and 15,000 if I had to guess since I ordered later on during the live unveiling, and I'm hopeful but not absolutely expecting a 2022 delivery. If production ends up getting delayed or slowed even one time, I bet I get pushed back to 2023.

 

[Sdctcher]

If you know your place in line for a Lightning based on time and date on the Reservation List, then when can you expect to actually buy it?

Well....Here are the clues:
******************************************************************
https://insideevs.com/news/508668/ford-f150-lightning-production-limited/
May 20, 2021 at 3:38pm ET

Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache, in an investor note Thursday, estimated Lightning production would be limited to 80,000 pickups per year, based on capacity data from parts plants that supply the truck.

Ford would be probably very happy to be able to even produce 80,000 Ford F-150 Lightning, which would require 8-16 GWh of batteries alone (depending on the battery pack capacity of 100-200 kWh per pack - the exact number was not disclosed).

We guess that even half of 80,000 would be a great start for F-150 EV in 2022.

https://www.engadget.com/ford-ramps-up-f-150-lightning-production-165311045.html
September 16th, 2021

Ford's electric F-150 Lightning is clearly in high demand, and the company is determined to keep up. The automaker has paired news of pre-production work with a promise to invest an extra $250 million and create 450 new jobs to increase production capacity. That should help Ford build 80,000 Lightning trucks per year — little comfort when the company now has 150,000 reservations, but the move should reduce wait times.

https://insideevs.com/news/549444/f-150-lightning-reservation-numbers/
Nov 21, 2021 at 1:03pm ET

The market is clearly very taken with the Ford F-150 Lightning. Ford is “approaching 200,000” reservations for the electric pickup, however meeting all that demand could prove difficult. This is because the Blue Oval plans to build only 15,000 F-150 Lightnings in 2022 followed by 55,000 in 2023 and 80,000 in 2024.

On top of that, Ford told Electrek at the LA Auto Show that the aforementioned figure does not include fleet customers buying through the Ford Pro program. The entry-level $39,974 “Pro” model is targeted exclusively for commercial use and is therefore seemingly not accounted for in the released reservation figures.
*******************************************************************
We can surmise that the maximum production out of Ford’s new Rouge Electric Vehicle Center, even if all supply chains work perfectly, will be 80,000 MY units.

They had hoped for 55,000 units for the full MY 2023 but MY 2022 will not be a full calendar year.

I am betting that the MY 2022 Production (March, 2022 - September, 2022) will end up at Retail (Reservation List) Fleet (Commercial/PRO) at 15,000 units each for a total of 30,000 units then ramping up to 55,000 for the 2023 MY beginning Winter, 2022.

Place your bets HERE Gentlemen and Gentlewomen.

 

[shutterbug]

Well here I thought you said they stopped making the gray color but I guess you meant not offering it on the Mach E

Fair enough. My point really was that running out of paint, isn't like running out of parts that would stop Ford from offering certain options, or even certain trims.

 

[rodhx]

Discontinued is the key word.

Which is why I used it ?

 

[GIFORD]

After 2 trips to my dealership I was able to get bummed up in my reservation (priority) to number 10 out of 23 dealer allocations. According to the GSM I will be 10th in line to order a new 2022 FL-F150. With 300Ford dealers in the USA x 10 per dealership I feel I’m on the cusp to get a 2022 model year since retail production is limited to around 30k for 2022. I’m so confident with Ford’s electric strategy - I purchased a home (investment)

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...k-innovation-add-6-000-jobs-in-tennessee.html

30 mins outside Stanton TN (site of Fords new electric F150 super factory) in Eads TN - Eads is about halfway between Stanton and Memphis.

Fight on Blue Oval!

 

[EVTruckGuy]

They told you their allocation is 23?

I didn't know Ford had given dealerships that info yet.

Can anybody else confirm that allocation numbers have been released to dealerships?

Also... Aren't there 3000 dealerships? In order for every dealership to get an average of 10, that would require 30,000 trucks be produced and delivered. While I certainly hope that happens, it seems like a lofty goal. Let's hope!

 

[GIFORD]

They told you their allocation is 23?

I didn't know Ford had given dealerships that info yet.

Can anybody else confirm that allocation numbers have been released to dealerships?

Also... Aren't there 3000 dealerships? In order for every dealership to get an average of 10, that would require 30,000 trucks be produced and delivered. While I certainly hope that happens, it seems like a lofty goal. Let's hope!

I put in 3004 not 300 dealerships (internet gods) FYI - my dealership was given the amount they can order for 2022 - they told me they were given 23 slots to allocate for priority. They interpreted that as its allocation # is my understanding…

 

[EVTruckGuy]

I put in 3004 not 300 dealerships (internet gods) FYI - my dealership was given the amount they can order for 2022 - they told me they were given 23 slots to allocate for priority. They interpreted that as its allocation # is my understanding…

Oh I see... That seems odd. The info sent to dealerships specifically said the amount of prioritization spots is unrelated to dealer allotment. It's so hard to get consistent info about the Lightning. For your sake, I hope what your dealer said is correct.

 

[GIFORD]

Oh I see... That seems odd. The info sent to dealerships specifically said the amount of prioritization spots is unrelated to dealer allotment. It's so hard to get consistent info about the Lightning. For your sake, I hope what your dealer said is correct.

My dealer had over 183 pre orders - So getting a number 10 priority in line sounds good on paper - Next month we will see This dealership mainly sells only F150’s fingers crossed ?

 

[MnLakeBum]

If you know your place in line for a Lightning based on time and date on the Reservation List, then when can you expect to actually buy it?

Well....Here are the clues:
******************************************************************
https://insideevs.com/news/508668/ford-f150-lightning-production-limited/
May 20, 2021 at 3:38pm ET

Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache, in an investor note Thursday, estimated Lightning production would be limited to 80,000 pickups per year, based on capacity data from parts plants that supply the truck.

Ford would be probably very happy to be able to even produce 80,000 Ford F-150 Lightning, which would require 8-16 GWh of batteries alone (depending on the battery pack capacity of 100-200 kWh per pack - the exact number was not disclosed).

We guess that even half of 80,000 would be a great start for F-150 EV in 2022.

https://www.engadget.com/ford-ramps-up-f-150-lightning-production-165311045.html
September 16th, 2021

Ford's electric F-150 Lightning is clearly in high demand, and the company is determined to keep up. The automaker has paired news of pre-production work with a promise to invest an extra $250 million and create 450 new jobs to increase production capacity. That should help Ford build 80,000 Lightning trucks per year — little comfort when the company now has 150,000 reservations, but the move should reduce wait times.

https://insideevs.com/news/549444/f-150-lightning-reservation-numbers/
Nov 21, 2021 at 1:03pm ET

The market is clearly very taken with the Ford F-150 Lightning. Ford is “approaching 200,000” reservations for the electric pickup, however meeting all that demand could prove difficult. This is because the Blue Oval plans to build only 15,000 F-150 Lightnings in 2022 followed by 55,000 in 2023 and 80,000 in 2024.

On top of that, Ford told Electrek at the LA Auto Show that the aforementioned figure does not include fleet customers buying through the Ford Pro program. The entry-level $39,974 “Pro” model is targeted exclusively for commercial use and is therefore seemingly not accounted for in the released reservation figures.
*******************************************************************
We can surmise that the maximum production out of Ford’s new Rouge Electric Vehicle Center, even if all supply chains work perfectly, will be 80,000 MY units.

They had hoped for 55,000 units for the full MY 2023 but MY 2022 will not be a full calendar year.

I am betting that the MY 2022 Production (March, 2022 - September, 2022) will end up at Retail (Reservation List) Fleet (Commercial/PRO) at 15,000 units each for a total of 30,000 units then ramping up to 55,000 for the 2023 MY beginning Winter, 2022.

Place your bets HERE Gentlemen and Gentlewomen.

There are lots of unknowns with the supply chain. Certainly batteries for EV's will be a constraint the next few years. I like your estimate of 85,000 F150 Lightnings produced by the end of 2023 which means more than half of the reservation holders are waiting more than two years from now for delivery. Many of those will grow impatient and go elsewhere. I've already seen it with other Bronco reservation holders buying Jeeps or LR Defenders.

 

[GIFORD]

There are lots of unknowns with the supply chain. Certainly batteries for EV's will be a constraint the next few years. I like your estimate of 85,000 F150 Lightnings produced by the end of 2023 which means more than half of the reservation holders are waiting more than two years from now for delivery. Many of those will grow impatient and go elsewhere. I've already seen it with other Bronco reservation holders buying Jeeps or LR Defenders.

I agree with what you are saying - I used this as a formula - Ask your dealer how many 1st wave Broncos they were allotted? In my case it was 12 - using that number as a case study - I’m number 10 in line for the L-F150 so I could make the cut….

 

[MnLakeBum]

I agree with what you are saying - I used this as a formula - Ask your dealer how many 1st wave Broncos they were allotted? In my case it was 12 - using that number as a case study - I’m number 10 in line for the L-F150 so I could make the cut….

Allotments matter and larger dealers obviously have more but from the Bronco reservation fiasco, who is selected to get a vehicle and when seems to be very random or follows a formula that only a few Ford executives are privy to.

I reserved a Ford Bronco in the first seven days after Ford opened the reservations in July of 2020 and I still have no idea of when my vehicle will be built. A month ago, I put a second order with a very large dealership for a more basic Bronco with none of the “restrained” options Ford has told us will delay orders, and still don’t have a VIN or production date. A buddy of mine put an order in for the identical model/specs with a Florida dealer and got a production date within a week. Many others with no reservations have walked into a Ford dealership in the last few months and have already taken delivery. The one Ford dealer that has my first order has gotten two dealer stock Broncos recently to sell at $20k over asking price while res holders like me who paid MSRP continue to wait for any news on a production date.

There are about 125,000 Bronco reservations that were coverted to orders and Ford will likely produce 53,000 Broncos in 2021 but many of us very early reservation holders will wait another 6+ months to take delivery. F150 Lightnings will be an even longer wait than a Bronco as there are more lightning orders and production by the end of 2022 will only be about 30,000.

I don’t want to be a Debbie downer, but Ford’s track record with the Bronco orders will likely carry over to the Lightning. The reality is the same for both models: Huge demand and very low supply and many greedy dealers that want as many to sell with huge additional dealer markup.

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