Invited After Transferring to ZEV State Dealer

[EaglesPDX]

Is it certain the prioritization policy would continue in MY23 and beyond?

Who the heck knows. Not like Ford was transparent on the non-reservation reservation.

A pre-existing policy apparently but the 5(?) per dealer number is just part of the problem. Ford's allocation to dealers makes it a game of chance for customers. A dealer who only gets 5, would never sell to a reservation holding customer if they can help it. Could be '23, could be '33 before Ford fulfills the first 200,000 reservation orders.

It only affects those of use who made reservations. As production and competition ramp up, it will be just another choice in the market and no "reservations".

I'm betting I'll get my Rivian before I hear from Ford.

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[EaglesPDX]

The Rivian and Lightning are two very different trucks.

Pickups that can tow 11k with 300 mile range. Rivian is a little smaller which is a plus for me living in the city but competitive enough that Rivian does everything I need a pickup to do. Other than smaller bed don't see much difference.

Rivian comes standard with the tonneau cover and works out to $10k less. Looks like Ford not honoring the reservations may work in my favor.

 

[jazzmanmonty]

Completely agree with your post. I think that's why Ford sent that threatening letter about "games", but stopped short of going after "above MSRP" deals, and went so far as to enable it on their online ordering platform.

That being said, you're also correct, the customer driven buying pattern is absolutely changing... from an in-person to online experience. I recall reading an article a few years ago how car buying is the experience that americans dread more than going to the dentist or something like that. This a challenge that plagues not just Ford, but all legacy automakers and not really tied to the Lightning. Ford only seems to be in the spotlight a little more because of the interesting & compelling products that they've released in the last couple of years (Bronco, Lightning, MME).

That being said, even if they could instantly switch to Tesla's model from a legal perspective, doesn't mean they would. Ford sells many times the amount of vehicles that Tesla does in a year, and an infinite amount more "unexciting" / "less-aspirational" vehicles. If all Ford did was sell Broncos, Lightnings, and GT500 Mustangs, then no, they wouldn't need the dealer.... but that isn't the model they're in.

I would hope that we NEVER switch to the Tesla online model. I HATE their constant price fluctuations based on supply/demand. It's almost worse than dealers adding ADM because at a snap of a finger they can add on $5k or take off $5k from MSRP just like that. Plus if you need a car tomorrow, there's no lot where you can go pick out one of a few and be done. I do value having dealerships to sit in and test drive a car, convenience of them possibly having what i want on the spot, repair facility right there to cover warranty repairs, etc. Also, like you mentioned, most people that want to go buy a Focus aren't gonna order online and wait 2 months. Dealer will have about 30 on the lot for those customers. So i like how Ford is trying to follow some of the Tesla online model, but i hope dealerships don't become extinct. People need to remember though, this online direct ordering is still relatively new to Ford and we're currently dealing with a messed up supply/demand situation. I think ford will work the kinks out of their hybrid model in a few years, streamline the online convenience, and once Covid mania is over in a year or so, it'll be a much better system.

 

[hturnerfamily]

As an insurance agent, I can't change the pricing of an insurance policy 'just because' I want to make more money. The price is the price, and my commission is based off that premium. If I want to make more money, as the marketing arm of the insurance company, I have to create more customers and sell more policies.

Ford dealers are the marketing arm of the automaker. They don't produce the vehicle, they just find customers to buy them. Their job is to find more customers, not to simply increase the price of the product, after-the-fact, because they feel like it.

Until the 'process' is changed, dealer-based sales are going to continue to be hindered by this type of sales process, as more and more of us move to 'direct' sales expectations, whether it be better or not.
Yes, if we all had our way and just ordered directly from Ford, delivered to our home, we might then be shocked just the same if Ford decided to add 'additional' fees, or increase the MSRP suddenly, just to meet current market conditions.

The answer is not easy, or simple, but regardless, I think Ford and their existing dealer network is actually in place to provide the best of both worlds, IF the dealers will believe in what Ford is doing, and try to keep their final pricing at those SAME numbers.
We all then would not be having this conversation, and the dealers would not then be 'suspect' in our minds every time we try to order a vehicle. A dealer would 'win' when they provide EXCELLENT customer service at the point of delivery, EXCELLENT warranty service, and great marketing to win new customer to 'order' from them.

Years ago, as many insurance companies saw that the 'direct sales' model might hinder their 'agent based sales' process, they moved to allowing customers to quote and issue their OWN policies directly with the insurance company, bypassing the local agent.
Well, you can certainly hear the aggravation and groans from the local agents, since this would then cut into their future customers and commissions.

What the insurance companies realized, though, is that while technology has advanced to make it easy for customer to buy insurance online, it did NOT remove the need for customers to use a LOCAL agent when it came to billing questions, filing CLAIMS, and asking general or specific questions about their policy.
Customer did not understand that while they purchased a policy directly from the company, online, that the local agent for that insurance company was NOT their agent. Customers see the NAME on the door of the agent and 'assume' that it means that the agent is like an employee of the company, and therefore will help them with a poilcy they purchased OUTSIDE of that agent's office. Agents were not happy. Agents were caught in a 'no-win' situation.

A simply answer to the direct sales model was simply to ask the customer to identify a LOCAL agent at the point of checkout. This provided the commissions to the local agent, although maybe a smaller amount, but created the same customer-to-agent relationship, for any future needs.
Ford is doing the same. The customer is ordering directly 'thru' Ford, but the dealer, who they identify as part of the reservation/order process, is still part of the equation. The dealer has no input or work involved in the order, but yet is still receiving commissions/profits on a customer that they may have never known, or may have never worked with.

 

[EVTruckGuy]

I've seen the posts from people who observed their cars coming in roughly in the order that they believe they were placed; but that's not really confirming that dealers had absolutely no power over getting customers to the front of the line or in the "First Edition" models

You know how people tried to log on and order Lightnings with Pro trim and couldn't because it was sold out? It was the same with the Mach e First Edition, except you had to select the First Edition when placing your reservation... Not at the time of order. Once the First Edition was sold out, there was no way to have a dealer "override" it to get one for a customer. There are no reports of this happening. Dealers had no way of gaming the system.

respect to the MME with scale. The first one was delivered just over a year ago if I recall. There was what, 40k reservations, which of course did not all turn into orders, so they cleared that bank in what, 4-5months?

You keep drastically underestimating Mach e demand and production.

There were less reservations because there wasn't a huge hyped up reveal and live broadcast with tons of people tuned it. The announcements came as smaller press releases and things like that. Don't let the number of reservations throw you off so much. Global demand for the Mach e was huge.

You keep conveniently forgetting Ford delivered about 4x as many of the the Mach e compared to the Lightning estimated production in the first year.

The only real factor at play other than reservation number was geography. Dealers were not so severely limited by allocation number. Regardless of what dealer a customer selected in the United States when placing a reservation, they were able to place an order when it was their turn. The build dates were assigned I'm what appeared to be order sequence with only slight variability. Some people got leapfrogged by a few weeks or even a month or two based on location or dealer selection, but nobody jumped to the front of the line as you speculate.

The waiting times were fairly standard and unavoidable making it somewhat fair. Nobody got special treatment, and nobody got screwed the way they are with the Lightning.

You don't have to believe it, but that doesn't make your assertion less incorrect.

 

[jfried]

You know how people tried to log on and order Lightnings with Pro trim and couldn't because it was sold out? It was the same with the Mach e First Edition, except you had to select the First Edition when placing your reservation... Not at the time of order. Once the First Edition was sold out, there was no way to have a dealer "override" it to get one for a customer. There are no reports of this happening. Dealers had no way of gaming the system.


You keep drastically underestimating Mach e demand and production.

There were less reservations because there wasn't a huge hyped up reveal and live broadcast with tons of people tuned it. The announcements came as smaller press releases and things like that. Don't let the number of reservations throw you off so much. Global demand for the Mach e was huge.

You keep conveniently forgetting Ford delivered about 4x as many of the the Mach e compared to the Lightning estimated production in the first year.

The only real factor at play other than reservation number was geography. Dealers were not so severely limited by allocation number. Regardless of what dealer a customer selected in the United States when placing a reservation, they were able to place an order when it was their turn. The build dates were assigned I'm what appeared to be order sequence with only slight variability. Some people got leapfrogged by a few weeks or even a month or two based on location or dealer selection, but nobody jumped to the front of the line as you speculate.

The waiting times were fairly standard and unavoidable making it somewhat fair. Nobody got special treatment, and nobody got screwed the way they are with the Lightning.

You don't have to believe it, but that doesn't make your assertion less incorrect.

Again, do you have anything from anywhere showing that a dealer had no ability to help a customer get one?

With respect to demand / production, you said it yourself.... Ford built a lot more Mach E's quickly than they did/are planning to do Lightnings and a lot less hype. Maybe there was just no reason to have prioritizations given how quickly they were able to fill all of the reservations?

 

[jfried]

I would hope that we NEVER switch to the Tesla online model. I HATE their constant price fluctuations based on supply/demand. It's almost worse than dealers adding ADM because at a snap of a finger they can add on $5k or take off $5k from MSRP just like that. Plus if you need a car tomorrow, there's no lot where you can go pick out one of a few and be done. I do value having dealerships to sit in and test drive a car, convenience of them possibly having what i want on the spot, repair facility right there to cover warranty repairs, etc. Also, like you mentioned, most people that want to go buy a Focus aren't gonna order online and wait 2 months. Dealer will have about 30 on the lot for those customers. So i like how Ford is trying to follow some of the Tesla online model, but i hope dealerships don't become extinct. People need to remember though, this online direct ordering is still relatively new to Ford and we're currently dealing with a messed up supply/demand situation. I think ford will work the kinks out of their hybrid model in a few years, streamline the online convenience, and once Covid mania is over in a year or so, it'll be a much better system.

Personally; I think we will see a hybrid model. The sheer quantity of legal battles required (as it is a state-by-state issue) would be MASSIVE. Ford would spend years in long, drawn out, legal battles with their partners. Unlike Tesla, they don't have the luxury of saying to that state "no problem, we'll go elsewhere".... Ford still needs to sell ~ 2 million cars a year.

Ford has talked a lot about reducing inventories to lean "more towards" this model and become more efficient, as they should.... but I think one of the biggest hurdles that they've gotta figure out is pricing.

Think back 15 years ago... somebody would go into a car dealership. They'd be armed with very little information, guy would take $1000 off MSRP, everyone (dealership & customer) would walk out feeling great.

Go to early 2020 (pre-pandemic), customer comes into the dealership armed with invoice cost and that's the starting point.... or better yet, they've used a 3rd party service that pre-canvasses a bunch of dealers for "their best deal"... then the customer comes in and wants to negotiate a bit more.

Fast forward to today, with widespread vehicle shortages, and you can't really blame the dealers for going above MSRP -- they've been going below MSRP when market conditions dictated as such for years.... why shouldn't the tables turn both ways?

If you reduce inventories (both in terms of number of vehicles on each lot, or number of different configurations that can be inventoried), but don't get pricing under control, you will create the same problematic power imbalance that existed in the late 2010s, but probably make it even worse, where customers pit dealers against each other, with dealers unable to offer any point of differentiation to uphold their pricing.

If the dealers & Ford all agreed to fix prices, I'm not sure that they could due to competition regulations... but even if they could, the dealers probably wouldn't right now given that they can get above MSRP. Once Ford fixes the supply issue, I'd imagine there will start to be discussions around how they can ensure dealrs aren't all undercutting themselves competing on price.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Shifting gears back to the thread title

Invited After Transferring to ZEV State Dealer

Is there a problem with non-ZEV-state buyers coming into the ZEV-state markets to make the purchase then returning home. I wonder if this action is affecting the ZEV-state allocations?

Are previously prioritized customers and low time stamp customers being pushed back or not?

Is it causing potential ZEV-State customers from taking advantage of the incentive?

Maybe not where the incentive is a pool of money that depletes from qualified in state buyers, but for states where it's time based, ex purchases must be completed by some future date, those customers might be waiting in the wings forever while out of state buyers are harvesting the out of state market.

Information in other threads seem indicate that out of state buyers are not affecting pre-determined allocations, in fact these customers might be taking the allocation intended for their original dealer, bringing it with them to execute a sale on more favorable terms where the dealer is not charging outrageous ADM's.

These are my concerns as we watch waves-4-5-6 process, what will the final shake out be?

 

[jfried]

Shifting gears back to the thread title

Invited After Transferring to ZEV State Dealer

Is there a problem with non-ZEV-state buyers coming into the ZEV-state markets to make the purchase then returning home. I wonder if this action is affecting the ZEV-state allocations?

Are previously prioritized customers and low time stamp customers being pushed back or not?

Is it causing potential ZEV-State customers from taking advantage of the incentive?

Maybe not where the incentive is a pool of money that depletes from qualified in state buyers, but for states where it's time based, ex purchases must be completed by some future date, those customers might be waiting in the wings forever while out of state buyers are harvesting the out of state market.

Information in other threads seem indicate that out of state buyers are not affecting pre-determined allocations, in fact these customers might be taking the allocation intended for their original dealer, bringing it with them to execute a sale on more favorable terms where the dealer is not charging outrageous ADM's.

These are my concerns as we watch waves-4-5-6 process, what will the final shake out be?

If I understand correctly... the ZEV targets are measured by the local state DMVs at time of initial registration. There are 2 potential opportunities where customer behaviour can upset this target.

Opportunity 1 -- Customer gets invite from ZEV dealer, transfers to a non-ZEV dealer to place order.

Opportunity 2 - Customer orders through ZEV dealer, registers in a non-ZEV state.

For Opp 1 - Ford has of course released invitations tied to allocations....with not being at the end of the wave process, it of course remains unclear whether they will "notice", or whether whatever system is in place to dole out invitations will just dynamically adjust, and not send out an invitation that would otherwise be sent out until the "wave process" closes and they see how many invites have converted orders.

For Opp 2 - Assuming the system is "static" for opp 1, and a dealer that may only have 6 allocations somehow is able to accept 10 orders, does this create a problem for the last 4 in getting built? or do those sales just come out of 2023 allocations for that dealer?

 

[FordLightningMan]

I'm not here to defend or attack Ford's reservation system. However, as a Tesla owner, I do need to clarify a few things.

Tesla does not sell in the order reservations are received. If you are regionally located where they want to sell first, you get your vehicle first. It's all a crapshoot, there are many Tesla forums where this is discussed. Also if you order a lower trim and they make more on a higher trim, your order may keep getting pushed back behind the Performance model. How about the people who ordered the Model S before the price increase getting their cars after people who paid more and ordered later?

What about people who ordered the single motor Cybertruck that doesn't exist anymore? You might be order #50 of 1,000,000... when will you get your truck? Will you need to order the quad motor to have your place in line honored? Does this sound a lot like the Lightning Pro bait and switch...?

Regarding Rivian honoring their order numbers, how does anyone know? They barely have any on the road and the first orders were all for investors and people close to Rivian. Has it been verified that every truck has been delivered by order number? Maybe this will happen, but I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch.

 

[rdr854]

Personally; I think we will see a hybrid model. The sheer quantity of legal battles required (as it is a state-by-state issue) would be MASSIVE. Ford would spend years in long, drawn out, legal battles with their partners. Unlike Tesla, they don't have the luxury of saying to that state "no problem, we'll go elsewhere".... Ford still needs to sell ~ 2 million cars a year.

Ford has talked a lot about reducing inventories to lean "more towards" this model and become more efficient, as they should.... but I think one of the biggest hurdles that they've gotta figure out is pricing.

Think back 15 years ago... somebody would go into a car dealership. They'd be armed with very little information, guy would take $1000 off MSRP, everyone (dealership & customer) would walk out feeling great.

Go to early 2020 (pre-pandemic), customer comes into the dealership armed with invoice cost and that's the starting point.... or better yet, they've used a 3rd party service that pre-canvasses a bunch of dealers for "their best deal"... then the customer comes in and wants to negotiate a bit more.

Fast forward to today, with widespread vehicle shortages, and you can't really blame the dealers for going above MSRP -- they've been going below MSRP when market conditions dictated as such for years.... why shouldn't the tables turn both ways?

If you reduce inventories (both in terms of number of vehicles on each lot, or number of different configurations that can be inventoried), but don't get pricing under control, you will create the same problematic power imbalance that existed in the late 2010s, but probably make it even worse, where customers pit dealers against each other, with dealers unable to offer any point of differentiation to uphold their pricing.

If the dealers & Ford all agreed to fix prices, I'm not sure that they could due to competition regulations... but even if they could, the dealers probably wouldn't right now given that they can get above MSRP. Once Ford fixes the supply issue, I'd imagine there will start to be discussions around how they can ensure dealrs aren't all undercutting themselves competing on price.

I do not think you can have dealerships getting together to decide what the price will be for a particular market since it would appear to violate federal antitrust laws.

 

[jfried]

I do not think you can have dealerships getting together to decide what the price will be for a particular market since it would appear to violate federal antitrust laws.

And therein lies the problem... we as consumers want dealers to compete against each other so as to lower price... but when things turn the other way and supply is scarce so dealers start to ADM/gouge... everyone cries foul.

Perhaps the end solution lies somewhere with the likes of MAP (Minimum Advertised Price) and a really, really strong policy adopted by Ford for it's resellers, where they can't advertise on forums. They can't run online ads, etc.

 

[jfried]

I'm not here to defend or attack Ford's reservation system. However, as a Tesla owner, I do need to clarify a few things.

Tesla does not sell in the order reservations are received. If you are regionally located where they want to sell first, you get your vehicle first. It's all a crapshoot, there are many Tesla forums where this is discussed. Also if you order a lower trim and they make more on a higher trim, your order may keep getting pushed back behind the Performance model. How about the people who ordered the Model S before the price increase getting their cars after people who paid more and ordered later?

What about people who ordered the single motor Cybertruck that doesn't exist anymore? You might be order #50 of 1,000,000... when will you get your truck? Will you need to order the quad motor to have your place in line honored? Does this sound a lot like the Lightning Pro bait and switch...?

Regarding Rivian honoring their order numbers, how does anyone know? They barely have any on the road and the first orders were all for investors and people close to Rivian. Has it been verified that every truck has been delivered by order number? Maybe this will happen, but I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch.

Very good point.

We know Ford's methodology, because by the very nature of their business (~3000 independent businesses reselling their vehicles), somebody is going to let it slip / leak out.

At Tesla, you've probably got a handful of employees making the decision... and those employees don't talk to anyone outside of Tesla.

I guess it really comes down to people figuring that "corporate is huge, they don't really care which little guy gets the truck, so might as well go in chronological order"... but the second you say the word "Dealer" -- an instant distrust seems to get involved because they're fearful that somebody else is going to get a leg up on them.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Again with the "dealer pressure"... what pressure? It's Ford in control here. They're the ones who make the rules. You keep alluding to this pressure like Ford "begrudgingly gave in"... why? Do you not understand that Ford & Dealers are on the same team? That giving dealers the power to get loyal customers to the front of the line serves everyone's business interests.

Yes, the dealer could have had an "out" that it's "big bad corporate"... but why does Ford want to be viewed as "big bad corporate" to it's loyal owners??

With respect to sense of entitlement, objectively, I think we can both agree that somebody who's bought say, 10 vehicles from Ford over the last 5 years, should have a greater sense of entitlement than somebody who put down a $100 deposit at the right time.

Sure, and if Ford had done the right thing and announced that policy from the start we wouldn’t be having this discussion right now. They wanted to have it both ways and that’s backfiring on them now.

 

[jfried]

Sure, and if Ford had done the right thing and announced that policy from the start we wouldn’t be having this discussion right now. They wanted to have it both ways and that’s backfiring on them now.

You never answered my question "what dealer pressure"?

Coming up with a final methodology for how you're going to allocate reservations, when you have no real idea or quantum of what the demand is going to be for the truck, and perhaps not even a solid grasp on what the first year production will look like, is non-sensical. See what you have, and then figure out the best way to manage it.

As for backfiring, sorry, I don't see it. Maybe they PO a couple of people on forums who actually do the digging to figure out what the behind the scenes process is... but all of the very loyal Ford buyers, who call up their dealers to ask how to get one, are likely to be happy as a clam. Some dealers maybe even went a step above and beyond, and called their best customers who happened to be on the list, and asked how quickly they want the truck.

The ONLY argument I can see is that if you assume an early f150 reservation holder is also an early Rivian reservation holder (which could be a reasonable argument), that bumping these people back (if Rivian doesn't do the same) could result in them getting a Rivian first and saying "no thanks" to the Ford.

Ultimately though, the person who takes the approach of reso's on all these electric vehicles to see which one comes first is probably not going to be all that brand loyal anyways; and it's not really a big loss considering that Ford is likely going to be filling orders over inventory for the next 2-3 years. It's certainly nowhere near as bad a loss if you piss off a guy with a fleet of 15 F150s on the road for his crew, that maybe need to be refreshed in a year or two.

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