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LightningShow

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The 2nd gen Lightning is going to blow this truck away as far as range and everything else battery related. Who knows if the overall value will be better though. I am sure that being built from the ground up to be an EV is going to help it out tremendously.

Even if they could design a truck that would blow it away, they won't. Bad business decision. Incremental changes are better for the long term bottom line. You give the target consumer *just enough* to get them to justify upgrading.

The technology advances incrementally, anyway. I don't think it's realistic to think that an EV truck in 2025 will be hugely different than an EV truck in 2022.
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ExCivilian

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I see down the line the gen 1 having serious desirability for after market mods. Being frame based, can swap bodies and do all sorts of custom things. At some point there will be a battery swap available and relatively (compared to gen 2 unibody) easy against tight packaged EV specific vehicles (Silverado, ram, etc).
I kinda want to hang on for long time for that reason.
That's how I feel about it, too. Until now, as far as I know, this is the only BoF EV short of converting an older classic car/truck.
 

PiMatrix

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From an EV standpoint, I'm 10 years and 350,000 miles in ... when does flooring it at every light stop again? (My lifetime Model S energy usage was 15% higher on average than EPA rated... I just can't hypermile!)
Reminds me of an observation from someone who saw a curious bumper sticker -

Ford F-150 Lightning Ford F-150 Lightning Lariat Range and Fast-Charging Test: Better Than Platinum [Motortrend] IMG_1177
 

Roy2001

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https://www.motor1.com/news/582926/ford-next-electric-truck-aero-range/amp/

This could mean a couple of things, 1) The 2nd gen Lightning wont be part of the F-150 Series and go off on its own or 2) This truck will be itā€™s own truck and the F-150 Lightning will continue in its current form. Two different EV Trucks with different designs.

IMO, I think itā€™ll be #1.
There is no magic. With improved drag freeway MPGe would be improved, but for local no way it will be improved dramatically.

My prediction is for ER with the same battery, EPA range would be 340-350 miles.
 

F150ROD

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There is no magic. With improved drag freeway MPGe would be improved, but for local no way it will be improved dramatically.

My prediction is for ER with the same battery, EPA range would be 340-350 miles.
Iā€™ll say that if Chevy delivers a 400 mile Silverado, there is no way Ford will offer only a a 340-350 miles Lightning as a 2nd gen.
 

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cvalue13

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Iā€™ll say that if Chevy delivers a 400 mile Silverado, there is no way Ford will offer only a a 340-350 miles Lightning as a 2nd gen.
And Teslaā€™s 500mi CT?

The Chevyā€™s 400mi could end up being purely the difference in aerodynamics resulting from the F150 still looking like an F150 and the Chevy looking like an Avalanche had sex with a stick of butter

Better aerodynamics will also be a big portion of the CTā€™s range compared to a gen14 F150 body

no free lunch and all fhat
 

F150ROD

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And Teslaā€™s 500mi CT?

The Chevyā€™s 400mi could end up being purely the difference in aerodynamics resulting from the F150 still looking like an F150 and the Chevy looking like an Avalanche had sex with a stick of butter

Better aerodynamics will also be a big portion of the CTā€™s range compared to a gen14 F150 body

no free lunch and all fhat
It's still 400 miles of range that Ford will have to compete with no matter how it looks. I'm not sure why everyone is so up in arms over the 2nd gen being better than the first gen........ it's the way it's supposed to be (Range/battery wise..... features is a different story)
 

cvalue13

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I'm not sure why everyone is so up in arms over the 2nd gen being better than the first gen....
i havenā€™t seen anyone ā€˜up in arms,ā€™ but instead noting that manufacturers rarely eclipse a prior gen in one big leap

in any event, important to keep in mind that 2nd Gen will be an entirely different truck - not Frame on Body, and so almost certainly not a familiar/overlapping ICE F150 styling.

400 mile range means 150-160kWh battery.Nothing special
nothing special, except for the price ā€¦

ford could build a 600mi F150 ā€œtomorrowā€; the question is only could they build one at a price point that remains marketable in the segment
 

PungoteagueDave

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I think the second gen will migrate to LFP batteries at least for the SR battery where there is room to fit the lower energy density battery. The battery will be less expensive, have lower rate of power output so a higher 0-60 mph time, and maybe will not work as well in colder climates. This will be driven by the very higher cost of obtaining Cobalt and Maganese vs Iron and Phosphorous. But the batteries should be safer as well as less pyrophoric igniting when exposed to air. Due to density considerations I think the ER batteries will still use NMC like we have now.
So you predict a reduce energy concentration and effectively shorter range. Tesla was forced into this (introduced lower density LFPs to some models) due to materials supply constraints in China and as an option on a couple U.S. models, but weight and range is everything with EVs. Especially tow vehicles. I don't see Ford regressing on battery tech, which is what your prediction portends.

You do highlight the ongoing struggle that we EV fans face - the battle between weight, cost, and range (battery capacity). It's a balancing act keeping the Cybertuck off the market for years beyond its intended roll-out, and will make its actual production reveal a shock to the market - because it will show a giant fail on at least one of the promised features. It's like an old boss once said: "We offer three things: Low Price, Quality and Speed. Pick any two." With EVs you can have Low Price, Long Range, and Low Weight. But you can only have one.
 
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cvalue13

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No way for 600 miles as of now, the payload would be 500lbs.
was sort of the point - and similar point goes for 400mi range: of course they can get the range, but thereā€™s no free lunch and seems like the costs (be it MSRP, payload, reduced storage, etc.) are the trick
 
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PungoteagueDave

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And Teslaā€™s 500mi CT?

The Chevyā€™s 400mi could end up being purely the difference in aerodynamics resulting from the F150 still looking like an F150 and the Chevy looking like an Avalanche had sex with a stick of butter

Better aerodynamics will also be a big portion of the CTā€™s range compared to a gen14 F150 body

no free lunch and all fhat
That is not going to happen, full stop. It was a design spec before there was ever an actual technology, with a battery that was a dream. Realty has intervened, as have price considerations. The $125k CT will have 400 miles range, empty, and 150 miles range towing. And it won't sell in expected volumes due to being over-speced and impossible to make at an affordable price point. See Rivian, which cannot build a truck for under $100k, and is losing big money on every delivery it makes, unlike Tesla, which has never had a negative gross sales margin in any quarter. They are not going to throw that away just to release a promised product, which is why all the delays.

It is impossible to make a full-body stainless steel vehicle of ANY kind and sell it for $75k or even $100k. And you cannot use materials that are that heavy and give it 500 miles range unless you stuff in a 225 kwh battery. There is not yet a magic fairy dust battery tech. Having a sloped windshield does not = aerodynamic. It is still a brick in front.
 

cvalue13

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That is not going to happen, full stop. It was a design spec before there was ever an actual technology, with a battery that was a dream. Realty has intervened, as have price considerations. The $125k CT will have 400 miles range, empty, and 150 miles range towing. And it won't sell in expected volumes due to being over-speced and impossible to make at an affordable price point. See Rivian, which cannot build a truck for under $100k, and is losing big money on every delivery it makes, unlike Tesla, which has never had a negative gross sales margin in any quarter. They are not going to throw that away just to release a promised product, which is why all the delays.

It is impossible to make a full-body stainless steel vehicle of ANY kind and sell it for $75k or even $100k. And you cannot use materials that are that heavy and give it 500 miles range unless you stuff in a 225 kwh battery. There is not yet a magic fairy dust battery tech.
I didnā€™t exactly intend to vouch for Teslaā€™s abilities to deliver a specific truck, but to just state Teslas consistent and current promise.

And while I share certain of your skepticisms, Iā€™m not as confident as you in Teslaā€™s lack of seriousness in their promises.

Afterall, I live ā€œdown the streetā€ from a gigafactory that at 60mph on the freeway takes a full 60 seconds to pass, which as recently as this week was having giga-press equipment delivered.

seems like if Teslaā€™s not building that truck eventually, nobodyā€™s told them yet

Having a sloped windshield does not = aerodynamic. It is still a brick in front.
obviously, ā€œaerodynamicā€ is intended as a relative term. The CT is not the most aerodynamic truck (0.39 drag coefficient), compared to eg the Rivian (0.30), but the Rivian is a mid-sized truck and as a full-sized truck the CT is considerably more aerodynamic than the F150L (0.49).

All else equal, a vehicle with a dc of 0.39 will have materially better range than one with a dc of 0.49, especially at the speeds like the ones the EPA uses to arrive at the hwy ratings weā€™re all here using to compare.

at the end of the day you seem far more invested in whether or not Tesla ever delivers a CT, and I couldnā€™t really care less and happy to concede to your confidence
 

Roy2001

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That is not going to happen, full stop. It was a design spec before there was ever an actual technology, with a battery that was a dream. Realty has intervened, as have price considerations. The $125k CT will have 400 miles range, empty, and 150 miles range towing. And it won't sell in expected volumes due to being over-speced and impossible to make at an affordable price point. See Rivian, which cannot build a truck for under $100k, and is losing big money on every delivery it makes, unlike Tesla, which has never had a negative gross sales margin in any quarter. They are not going to throw that away just to release a promised product, which is why all the delays.

It is impossible to make a full-body stainless steel vehicle of ANY kind and sell it for $75k or even $100k. And you cannot use materials that are that heavy and give it 500 miles range unless you stuff in a 225 kwh battery. There is not yet a magic fairy dust battery tech. Having a sloped windshield does not = aerodynamic. It is still a brick in front.
Aerodynamic only helps on freeways when speed is above 60mph. Thereā€™s simply no magic.
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