Anticipated Lightning depreciation? And future upgradeability?

[speedy123]

Hi, first post. Honda Ridgeline owner (love it), but wanting to make a move to EV and happily holding my Lightning reservation.

Two things have me concerned. First, I see that the Mach-E has been showing pretty terrible projected depreciation. I see that is the case for a lot of EV's, with the Tesla model 3 an exception. This will be an expensive purchase, and I'm worried about long term cost of ownership if I purchase, even if I'm saving all of that money on gas and maintenance. Thoughts?

Also, with the quick pace of EV development, I'm wondering about the 400volt charging platform, and whether there would be an option to eventually upgrade the truck if 800V or more (like the Hummer, and probably any GM electric truck) becomes more common.

Trying to be realistic. This looks like a terrific vehicle that I'd be happy to own. Just worried that it will be a dinosaur for charging speed not long after it is released, and that residual values will be poor. Any chance of them changing the charging architecture at the last minute before release? I haven't decided if I'm going to buy or lease, and whether I do right away when my reservation comes up, or sit on the fence for 2 or 3 years and see how the EV truck wars shake out.......

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[Nick Gerteis]

Hi, first post. Honda Ridgeline owner (love it), but wanting to make a move to EV and happily holding my Lightning reservation.

Two things have me concerned. First, I see that the Mach-E has been showing pretty terrible projected depreciation. I see that is the case for a lot of EV's, with the Tesla model 3 an exception. This will be an expensive purchase, and I'm worried about long term cost of ownership if I purchase, even if I'm saving all of that money on gas and maintenance. Thoughts?

Also, with the quick pace of EV development, I'm wondering about the 400volt charging platform, and whether there would be an option to eventually upgrade the truck if 800V or more (like the Hummer, and probably any GM electric truck) becomes more common.

Trying to be realistic. This looks like a terrific vehicle that I'd be happy to own. Just worried that it will be a dinosaur for charging speed not long after it is released, and that residual values will be poor. Any chance of them changing the charging architecture at the last minute before release? I haven't decided if I'm going to buy or lease, and whether I do right away when my reservation comes up, or sit on the fence for 2 or 3 years and see how the EV truck wars shake out.......

You have some valid points. However, this is a field of technology that’s advancing rapidly today and probably even more so in the near future. So, if you’re sitting on the fence about this issue today, you’ll be sitting on the fence about other issues then. If you think this vehicle will meet your needs for several years, go ahead and buy it now. Resale value will only be a problem for ICE vehicles by the time you buy your next truck.

 

[Blainestang]

I agree that the state of the art may change quickly with EVs, but I think because demand will exceed supply for a while, resale should be pretty good, at least short term.

LONG term, I think the Extended Range will avoid seeming "obsolete" better, since it can charge at an AVERAGE of 150kW from 15% to 80%, which is pretty good.

That said, the Short Range Pro is just such a smoking deal that it may hold its value well anyway, even though the range and charge rate aren't exemplary (from what we officially know today).

The cheapest 2016 (5 years old) F-150 Supercrew XL in the entire country (on Cars.com) that's <100k miles, 4x4, and not at a buy-here-pay-here is $26,000 with 92k miles on it.

Sure, we're in a bubble right now, but if you get a $39k F-150 Pro and get the tax credit, that's $32k. It's way better equipped, higher performance, etc. than that $26,000 2.7L, so I just don't see it being worth LESS than that after 5 years and similar miles, and I bet it's worth substantially more if the tax credit goes away.

That's my thought process anyway.

 

[gorwell]

New EVs have mostly been sold with tax credits ranging from $7-11K... Since a used car doesn't have any incentives, that would mean that resale value can be $7-11K under MSRP the day after it was sold.

But, What do you mean by showing terrible projected depreciation? It hasn't been around for more than a year, how could anyone assess that?

Used car prices are crazy right now... The cheapest I can find a used Mach-e is for 48K (base model) which is being sold new for 42K minus 7-11K tax credit, so $31-35K... So right now if you managed to buy a Mach-e new, you could sell it for 13-17K profit.

Even I could sell my EV for profit and I bought it new in 2019 and it's a rare e-golf with just 125 EPA range.

Most are not expecting price parity with ICE cars until 2025 (but w/ incentives it is pretty close right now for some, e.g., F150 Pro)... So everyone Today is paying a little bit of premium for an EV. By ~2025 most brands will have dedicated battery supplies to keep cost downs, along with the incremental improvement for range we are seeing in battery technology today.

Ford seemed to over-engineer their AC charging specs, and under engineer their DC charging.

I would say DC Charing is certainly an issue w/ Ford. However, that's really a "personal" matter... Do you regularly drive 400 mile road trips... Yah, that charging is going to suck and you need to make amends with the fact that a 400 road trip is adding like 60 minutes due to charging. However, for many that's a one or two times a year inconvenience. And, you'd be charging at home a couple nights of week overnight to maintain a full "tank"... DC fast charging should only be used for road trip charging and not for day-to-day use.

I doubt Ford would be able to add on 800V charging at this time for the Launch as I would assume the F150 is basically built and they are just doing final tweaks. 800V would not be an addon for this iteration It would require a new battery construction. So, a different model in the future, it's clear that Ford is trying to streamline production as much as possible to keep costs down.

Lastly, range is likely the biggest issue with EV resale right now.. but hopefully people get over their Range issues as EV adoption continues. Eventually people need to realize that having a car with just 125 miles of range meets 90% of day to day driving. I'm looking to keep my egolf for city driving and trade in my Mazda CX5 for the F150 as a road tripping car.

I'm personally fine w/ the standard and extended range F150. It's been probably 3 years since I drove more than 200 miles in 1 sitting. All regular road trips around me to the beach/mountains could be done on one 10 minute extra charge for standard range (or no charging).

Look @ https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and see if it meets your needs for now and in the future (you can add battery degradation, use 10% for 10 years of ownership).

 

[speedy123]

Thanks for the comments. Helpful. Ford itself was predicting fairly quick depreciation for the Mach E in dealer information released last fall. Expected residual values of only 39% and 32% by 3 and 4 years of ownership. https://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/the-ford-mach-e-ev-is-not-a-good-investment-ar190328.html

But just conjecture at that point, and it sounds like, at least in the short term the demand for it remains high and hopefully resale values reflect that. The Mach E itself is not of interest to me, just more the potential depreciation of the platform and technology.

Like most people, 90% of my driving would be covered in the Lightning standard range model. I'm waffling about whether it is worth spending $10k (Canadian) extra for an extra 100km range. Wary of dropoff in cold weather performance, only usually charging to 80-90%, and all of the usual EV caveats.

Where I live, there is a $5k provincial EV rebate, but I think the Lightning base model will still be priced too high to qualify for the Canadian $5k federal rebate.

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