Lithium EV vs Up coming Solid State EV

[MickeyAO]

QuantumScape so far (of news that they've released so far) is a 4 layer ceramic lithium SSB that they've tested to about 800 cycles.

4 layer ceramic and 800 cycles...but what is the size of the cell? Based on what I've seen on the street about this company, we are talking about < 1.5 Ah cell size. Their performance is very good and even commendable/breakthrough, but what I'm saying is we are not in the range where they will be produced into packs anytime (next 3-5 years) soon.

Sponsored

 

[Kiggulak]

So there's another variable in the mix with battery performance and I'm sure MickeyAO can comment on it. Lithium packs don't like to be 100% state of charge and hot. Tesla trains their users to only charge to 80% for daily driving and slide their charging line to full 100% only for road trips.

My 2013 Ford Focus Electric utilizes a different logic. It never allows the user to use 100% of the battery and when hooked to Level 2 charging will electronically "swap" cells in and out of the active use range. I could see this because the original owner charged and drove the car on L1 trickle charging to the point that there was reduced range on the guess o meter every third day or so for my weekly overnight charging on Level 2. Also with only 80 miles total range on the good cells and 60 miles on the heavily used cells it was pretty clear when I got in to start my day what active cells I had for the day. Also while the Focus has active liquid cooling on the pack it only works when plugged in ... so when my car sits in the South Florida sun all day (105F+ on the dash temp) at work I frequently get messages when I start it up that "It's hot outside ... you should plug your car in." I'm sure this hot storage without being plugged in factored into the demise of my battery.

That was up until the pack quit on me within the 8yr 100,000mi warranty (at 7 yrs 10.5 mo). Now I have a refurb battery ($22K and 1 month at the dealer) with a 1 year parts/service warranty on the pack and plan to trade it in on my Lightning we shall see where I fall in the production queue. Back to 80 mile GOM range everyday and no hints of a Stop Safely Now warning. Also my employer put in L2 Chargepoint Chargers so now I can plug in during the hot months without putting adverse wear and tear on my refurb pack.

Not sure what if any logic Ford uses in the Mach-E. Tesla style controls to the user or behind the scenes code in the Battery Charge Management System. Is the battery cooling more active to help prolong life over range or does it only cool when plugged in like the Focus? I can ask these questions at the Daytona Event but I doubt the sales folks at the event will know or be able to articulate these details.

Again leasing the Lightning makes the most sense when battery replacement is ~50% of the retail for Lightning Pro using the Focus Electric smaller pack, or doing the balloon payment plan where you can choose 3yrs down the line to keep what you have (and know the wear and tear) vs what new battery chemistry/mgmt technology is in play.

 

[MickeyAO]

Not sure what if any logic Ford uses in the Mach-E. Tesla style controls to the user or behind the scenes code in the Battery Charge Management System. Is the battery cooling more active to help prolong life over range or does it only cool when plugged in like the Focus?

I'll let you know in a couple of months after we run our vehicle level test on the Mach-E

 

[currybob]

Let me be very clear here...the largest SSB cell that has been delivered for independent testing (including to my testing house) is a 2 Ah cell. Are SSBs on the horizon with 100 Ah cells? ABSOLUTELY! But they are still several years off and will not surprise everyone with a sudden game-changer that will obsolete all other cells within the next 5 years. Yes, I am familiar with all the companies listed in the article.

If you re-read the statement you see they say they are building a new facility capable of producing 100 ampere cells for testing. Not currently building but in the near future...

"A brand new facility at Solid State’s existing site will contain a pilot line capable of producing 100-ampere battery cells and will allow the company to increase the production of sulfide-based solid electrolytes"

 

[Toadkillerdog]

If you re-read the statement you see they say they are building a new facility capable of producing 100 ampere cells for testing. Not currently building but in the near future...

"A brand new facility at Solid State’s existing site will contain a pilot line capable of producing 100-ampere battery cells and will allow the company to increase the production of sulfide-based solid electrolytes"

I read all of that and for last ten years remember claims of next big battery tech being around the corner and it never reaches the consumer. A pilot line is far more promising but nowhere near volume production. i remain very, very skeptical and at same time really really hoping this tech gets here as fast as they are promising. Keeping my fingers crossed but gonna buy a lightning ER if given the chance and not wait for next big thing.

 

[MickeyAO]

"A brand new facility at Solid State’s existing site will contain a pilot line capable of producing 100-ampere battery cells

It's a long way from releasing 2 Ah cells for independent testing to being able to produce 100 Ah cells for final production. What I'm really trying to get across is if you are holding off buying the latest offerings because you are scared SSB will obsolete your pack in the next year or two (which is what YOU stated to start off this thread, and I quote ' If you buy a lithium version EV and the SSBs come out the next year')

Just because you plan to build a new facility with a pilot line that is capable of 100 Ah cells, doesn't mean you will be producing 100 Ah cells within the next 6 years, especially if a leading provider of an SSB 2 Ah cell (state of the art right now) failed an SAE J2464 cell crush test in my lab this week, twice.

If you plan on waiting for solid-state, plan on waiting for at least 6 years. But when we get to the point that SSB might actually be viable, fuel cells will once again suddenly be 'just around the corner', and you will decide to wait for that! Hint: Fuel cells were about 5 years out when I joined the military. I served 22 years and retired from there 16 years ago. Fuel cells are about 4 years out right now, and that's with having a vehicle in my lab that runs on a fuel cell.

 

[currybob]

It's a long way from releasing 2 Ah cells for independent testing to being able to produce 100 Ah cells for final production. What I'm really trying to get across is if you are holding off buying the latest offerings because you are scared SSB will obsolete your pack in the next year or two (which is what YOU stated to start off this thread, and I quote ' If you buy a lithium version EV and the SSBs come out the next year')

Just because you plan to build a new facility with a pilot line that is capable of 100 Ah cells, doesn't mean you will be producing 100 Ah cells within the next 6 years, especially if a leading provider of an SSB 2 Ah cell (state of the art right now) failed an SAE J2464 cell crush test in my lab this week, twice.

If you plan on waiting for solid-state, plan on waiting for at least 6 years. But when we get to the point that SSB might actually be viable, fuel cells will once again suddenly be 'just around the corner', and you will decide to wait for that! Hint: Fuel cells were about 5 years out when I joined the military. I served 22 years and retired from there 16 years ago. Fuel cells are about 4 years out right now, and that's with having a vehicle in my lab that runs on a fuel cell.

You right, I am cautions but excited at the same time.

I don't keep vehicles very long but trying to do better, I've had the Nickle style hybrid vehicles in the past and then the hype about lithium started coming out. That seem to happen pretty quick, and seems like Toyota was one of the last to do the switch. Now it seems they are potentially leading the pack in the SSB and the fuel cell and Ford heavily vested in the SSB. I'm thinking the SSB is a more viable way to go over the fuel cell for the average vehicle market but can differently have a market in the larger vehicles.

I'm still on the fence but the more info and test reviews I've read on the lighting, has me leaning more towards taking the order of the new Lightening. I do however love my Powerboost, which has really impressed me but will not keep till 2026-2027 model year. While I was hoping for 24-25 model years showing SSBs, current info seems to point more to the 26-27 as a more realistic time frame at best, I am a glass half full person. Lol

I do however like and enjoy seeing new info and good healthy debates on such new tech and the reason for me starting this thread.

 

[Kiggulak]

I'll let you know in a couple of months after we run our vehicle level test on the Mach-E

Did you test the Ford Focus Electric? Do you have better details on the older Ford charge management system? I know the battery pack is ~24Kwh nowhere near the Tesla 60Kwh, 85Kwh, 100Kwh pack sizes and Ford has yet to say what's in the F150 somewhere north of 100Kwh I believe.

The Ford electric component warranty and solid backing of that warranty on my Focus and reputable repairs at my local trusted dealer I am comfortable being an early adopter on the Lightning.

 

[Sun Devil]

https://apple.news/A26FZx5kNR5m5JM5FWXcQnA

I must admit that after reading this article, if I didn't need a truck by year end next year, I would likely wait as the technology should be significantly better soon.

 

[Toadkillerdog]

https://apple.news/A26FZx5kNR5m5JM5FWXcQnA

I must admit that after reading this article, if I didn't need a truck by year end next year, I would likely wait as the technology should be significantly better soon.

I seriously doubt we will see solid state batteries mass produced for fords in Next five years.

 

[MickeyAO]

https://apple.news/A26FZx5kNR5m5JM5FWXcQnA

I must admit that after reading this article, if I didn't need a truck by year end next year, I would likely wait as the technology should be significantly better soon.

You may want to read this entire thread where I talk about the current state-of-the-art of SSBs.
This is going to be a repeat of the early days of personal computers (I'm an old fart who lived through those days) where everyone kept holding off buying a computer because the next chip would obsolete all others. When that chip came out, there was another chip getting ready to come out that would obsolete all other chips, rinse and repeat and soon you just never bought a computer and missed out on how they could enhance your life.

 

[Scorpio3d]

You may want to read this entire thread where I talk about the current state-of-the-art of SSBs.
This is going to be a repeat of the early days of personal computers (I'm an old fart who lived through those days) where everyone kept holding off buying a computer because the next chip would obsolete all others. When that chip came out, there was another chip getting ready to come out that would obsolete all other chips, rinse and repeat and soon you just never bought a computer and missed out on how they could enhance your life.

Funny, I somehow came across this thread which is three years old next month. I haven’t kept up with the SSB’s but I think they are a few years out……still!?

 

[Nomoregas]

I’m definitely waiting for whatever the next evolution of battery tech is before I purchase an EV. I’ve been considering it for about a year now, but timing just didn’t feel right so I just got a PowerBoost for now. 2024-2025 will likely be my timeframe for my next purchase as well.

82000 km and like brand new, and smoking any truck who thinks they got something on me, life is too short to wait long! Common T3

 

[Grumpy2]

I believe you can buy the Lightning today and it's battery will be out of warranty before a solid state battery truck is available.

Sponsored