✅ 4/18 Lightning Build Week Group

[F150User22]

Ford can't control that as tightly as Telsa does though since they don't control the actual sales.

I think the way they control is kind of what they’re doing now - not shipping them to the dealers.

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[Labs4Lightning]

I tend to agree with this if it was across all models, but it is just the MME, Lightning and I think the van. Most all of these are special orders, so they should have a pretty good count on how many are where in the pipeline.

Tesla executed this perfectly. They stopped within a few thousand US deliveries and made all Candian cars for a few weeks then switched back to US. Gave another 3 months of much higher production numbers access to the credit.

Tesla was in a much more needy position than lightning buyers & ford.

 

[GDN]

No - it is also all of their plug in hybrids (they count as well), across both the Ford and Lincoln brands.

Some perhaps, but for the hybrids the amount of the credit is based on the size of the battery.

Either way - I don't see them holding this number of trucks another 4 to 5 weeks until the end of June. If it was just another week they'd have it, but not til end of June.

 

[rlbussard]

Some perhaps, but for the hybrids the amount of the credit is based on the size of the battery.

Either way - I don't see them holding this number of trucks another 4 to 5 weeks until the end of June. If it was just another week they'd have it, but not til end of June.

They wouldn't have to hold him up that long. Most of the deliveries take 2 to 3 weeks to come in. So if they held him up until around the 10th to the 15th of June, I think they'd be okay.

 

[DJBull]

It is in their best interests to sell the 200,000th Ford electric/ hybrid car or truck on July 1st. Tesla did something very similar during their phase out. I think they still can deliver 3,000-6,000 in May/June, then ramp up delivers on July 1st.

Maybe it's in your best interest, but it's not in Ford's best interest. The popularity is too high for this vehicle, if the credit runs out it may make a few people cancel their order, but someone else who does not care about the credit will step right in and buy the truck. At it's current pace, even if they "delayed" delivery to extend the credit, the credit will run out before the demand of the truck runs out.

It's in Ford's best interest to deliver on their promise. I feel as though the bare minimum would be to have at least waves 1-2 delivered and in the hands of the customer before June 21st (end of Spring). Of course with that being less than a month away with no obvious progress made with regards to shipping, it does not appear very likely. Fingers crossed.

 

[rlbussard]

Maybe it's in your best interest, but it's not in Ford's best interest. The popularity is too high for this vehicle, if the credit runs out it may make a few people cancel their order, but someone else who does not care about the credit will step right in and buy the truck. At it's current pace, even if they "delayed" delivery to extend the credit, the credit will run out before the demand of the truck runs out.

It's in Ford's best interest to deliver on their promise. I feel as though the bare minimum would be to have at least waves 1-2 delivered and in the hands of the customer before June 21st (end of Spring). Of course with that being less than a month away with no obvious progress made with regards to shipping, it does not appear very likely. Fingers crossed.

I agree with you on that, I for one am not that concerned if I get to $7,500 or $3,750 credit. However the waves one and two by July is not going to happen.. Ford is not building everyone by waves. There are people still in wave one that haven't gotten their truck built yet. I know this, because of the spreadsheet we're keeping with just a small percentage of 354 vehicles.

 

[F150User22]

Maybe it's in your best interest, but it's not in Ford's best interest. The popularity is too high for this vehicle, if the credit runs out it may make a few people cancel their order, but someone else who does not care about the credit will step right in and buy the truck. At it's current pace, even if they "delayed" delivery to extend the credit, the credit will run out before the demand of the truck runs out.

It's in Ford's best interest to deliver on their promise. I feel as though the bare minimum would be to have at least waves 1-2 delivered and in the hands of the customer before June 21st (end of Spring). Of course with that being less than a month away with no obvious progress made with regards to shipping, it does not appear very likely. Fingers crossed.

By waiting a few weeks they are giving their potential customers the opportunity to gain an additional $3,500 for another quarter. That added money is in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Let’s say they produce 13,000 Lightnings a month x 3 months x $3,500 = $136,500,000. And that is only highlighting the Lightning’s. MME and other plug in hybrid and e transit will push this over $200 million. Trust me, they will make sure 200,000 ev/hybrids won’t be delivered before July 1.

 

[Carminus]

May 12th I received a text from my Sales guy:

Primary: In Production
Secondary: Sent Offsite
Vehicle Location: Rouge Electric Vehicle Center (revc). MI
Status Date / Time: May-05-2022

That was May 5th. I did get the bed liner sprayed. Is it say to assume that it was sprayed and returned to Rouge factory?

Wonder what's going on?

 

[yed19]

By waiting a few weeks they are giving their potential customers the opportunity to gain an additional $3,500 for another quarter. That added money is in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Let’s say they produce 13,000 Lightnings a month x 3 months x $3,500 = $136,500,000. And that is only highlighting the Lightning’s. MME and other plug in hybrid and e transit will push this over $200 million. Trust me, they will make sure 200,000 ev/hybrids won’t be delivered before July 1.

The fact is they have not delivered a single one yet. They would love to show them delivering lightnings, but could not for some reason. They could start delivering lightnings at a slow rate to still ensure this happens. They could deliver all the mannequins since they would not be sold. This is something else entirely, imho. If it was a chips issue, they could have done the same thing. Slow role-out, etc... I think this is a certification issues or software issue where they are doing due diligence on testing or wanted to fix the one-pedal issues, or something like that to the point where they did not want anything going out before it was ready. The fact now that they did show a few shipping could be a result of the clearing of the issue and more and more trucks each day showing as "built" may be the progress we all want. We are talking about maybe 2K sellable trucks right now (non-mannequins), right?

 

[rlbussard]

The fact is they have not delivered a single one yet. They would love to show them delivering lightnings, but could not for some reason. They could start delivering lightnings at a slow rate to still ensure this happens. They could deliver all the mannequins since they would not be sold. This is something else entirely, imho. If it was a chips issue, they could have done the same thing. Slow role-out, etc... I think this is a certification issues or software issue where they are doing due diligence on testing or wanted to fix the one-pedal issues, or something like that to the point where they did not want anything going out before it was ready. The fact now that they did show a few shipping could be a result of the clearing of the issue and more and more trucks each day showing as "built" may be the progress we all want. We are talking about maybe 2K sellable trucks right now (non-mannequins), right?

I would definitely wait a couple weeks for them to fix that one pedal driving. The OPD isn't great on the Mach E either, but way better than the Lightning. Out of Specs Reviews demonstrated it and it rolls backwards before the actual brakes grab.

 

[F150User22]

The fact is they have not delivered a single one yet. They would love to show them delivering lightnings, but could not for some reason. They could start delivering lightnings at a slow rate to still ensure this happens. They could deliver all the mannequins since they would not be sold. This is something else entirely, imho. If it was a chips issue, they could have done the same thing. Slow role-out, etc... I think this is a certification issues or software issue where they are doing due diligence on testing or wanted to fix the one-pedal issues, or something like that to the point where they did not want anything going out before it was ready. The fact now that they did show a few shipping could be a result of the clearing of the issue and more and more trucks each day showing as "built" may be the progress we all want. We are talking about maybe 2K sellable trucks right now (non-mannequins), right?

Agree with you 100%. Deliver the dealer mannequins and deliver 3,000-4,000 to customers. Heck, deliver a bunch to Canada! I think by next week we will get a better idea.

 

[TaxmanHog]

MME and other plug in hybrid and e transit will push this over $200 million.

Only DATE upon which the 200,000th US Domestic sale occurs is our concern, the amount of dollars paid out in credits has no bearing of any sort.

 

[F150User22]

Only DATE upon which the 200,000th US Domestic sale occurs is our concern, the amount of dollars paid out in credits has no bearing of any sort.

The dollar amount I’m quoting is essentially a “missed opportunity” dollar amount. If they are able to keep the full credit for another entire quarter they will allow people to claim up to $200 million in credits. I understand the dollar amount doesn’t factor in to the actual phase out, just offering some perspective if it was kept alive.

 

[TaxmanHog]

The dollar amount I’m quoting is essentially a “missed opportunity” dollar amount. If they are able to keep the full credit for another entire quarter they will allow people to claim up to $200 million in credits. I understand the dollar amount doesn’t factor in to the actual phase out, just offering some perspective if it was kept alive.

Right, with the production capacity ramping at a steady rate, I still don't think the Lightning plant would be able to buck-up the rate when the trigger point is reached, we may have folks near the end of 185,000 long reservation list who will be disappointed with the partial and full lost opportunity. Then years later future buyers won't have any incentives, (Tesla, GM, etc)

 

[Labs4Lightning]

Right, with the production capacity ramping at a steady rate, I still don't think the Lightning plant would be able to buck-up the rate when the trigger point is reached, we may have folks near the end of 185,000 long reservation list who will be disappointed with the partial and full lost opportunity. Then years later future buyers won't have any incentives, (Tesla, GM, etc)

Follow up on j. Klafehn using ford pass to track lightning.

article about it: Auto evolution.com article

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