Electrical demand with more EVs on the road. Is there enough power supply for future growth?

[Theo1000]

The CA problem started with not in my backyard along with down with nukes.

Actually a lot of blame has to go change in requirements to areas where originally not so much electricity was consumed. A/C is being added to houses, electric ranges, electric dryers, and yes electric cars in areas that did not originally have these. There is plenty of generation but the transmission to get more and more power to these areas is not there.

Take a look at Caiso. 5% reserve over peak not including demand shifting. Kinda low, ideally 15% but likely much of this generation is in the wrong place for transmission.

Urge people to read more than fall for what the news cycle folks wants us all to fight over.

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[ExCivilian]

Urge people to read more than fall for what the news cycle folks wants us all to fight over.

Exactly.

Case in point...it's not a "California" problem: https://news.yahoo.com/pacific-power-cpi-plan-power-005420930.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma

It's not a "Western states" problem: https://www.9and10news.com/2022/06/...outs-michigan-energy-companies-arent-worried/

It's not even a "US" problem (and I left Europe out of this so we can't even chalk it up to a "Russia-Ukraine" problem): https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/23/chi...but-this-time-its-likely-to-be-different.html

Each of these examples are directly linked to "lack of rainfall" and "extreme heat" in the articles linked.

 

[Tony Burgh]

I have an idea that will help. Let's ban natural gas heating and cooking. Just get it from the grid instead. Which is already strained, and powered mostly by natural gas in Texas. Oh, but we have wind. Unless the wind isn't blowing...and there's no storage for that wind energy...so back to natural gas. Have to have 100% backup for wind, or the grid fails.

Just my rant against banning natural gas appliances. Here in Corpus Christi, when we freeze over or get a Cat 4 hurricane, the natural gas supply has NEVER been interrupted. Never. Turn on the burners and boil that water after the hurricane. Take a hot shower when it's 45 degrees in the house because the power is out and it's 20 outside. Banning natural gas appliances is lunacy.

End of Rant.

Oh wait, there's more.

p.s. What is the single biggest contributor to the reduction in carbon emissions in the US? Cheap natural gas. Displaced a lot of coal plants.

p.p.s. We ship a hell of a lot of oil and natural gas out of Corpus Christi. Unfortunately we (the US) used to be able to ship more, but our recent policies have reversed the "net exporter of energy" role that the US had. Instead, Europe is going to freeze this winter, while Putin, the Saudis and Venezuela reap the benefits. Apparently it's good for the environment that other countries that pollute more than us produce that energy.

Okay, real End of Rant.

You got receipts for your commentary? I do...

Thank you. Pennsylvania exports both electricity and natural gas (after generating electricity). Natural gas goes by pipeline to surrounding states AND the gulf coast for export as LNG. Western PA comprises part of the second most renewable watershed in the Western Hemisphere sending more than half of the annual rainfall down the Ohio River. If you chose to live in areas deficient in water and energy, you should plan accordingly. And realize your problems are not pandemic.
off the soapbox.

 

[Tbrou16]

If more vehicles were built with V2G technology and workplaces had two-way electric charging, EV’s not in use could help power the grid then recharge during off-peak hours. This would of course require batteries to have 0-100% cycles several times their current lifetime to prevent loss of charge over a few years.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

If more vehicles were built with V2G technology and workplaces had two-way electric charging, EV’s not in use could help power the grid then recharge during off-peak hours. This would of course require batteries to have 0-100% cycles several times their current lifetime to prevent loss of charge over a few years.

This . LiFePo batteries already have the required longevity. It’s how our world will operate in 20 years, time for us to plan accordingly today already.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Yes, you’re absolutely correct. Today. That’s why I said “myopia”: you act as though today’s grid was impossible to improve. But with a reasonable amount of money and political will we’ll build up the grid, shift generating capacity from FF to RE, and solve intermittency with all our shiny new batteries that are rolling out at the same time. That’s what OP was concerned about, and it will all work out beautifully.

In most places that matter, it cannot, because it does not even exist.. The U.S. is 4% of world population. Add the EU and we're 8%. The fact is that 90% of the WORLD's roads aren't even paved and half the people alive today have NEVER flushed a toilet in their lives - not once. Folks around here have no clue what's in the real world.

The fact is that 90% of worldwide GPD happens north of the equator. I'm going to ride my motorcycle starting next week for 6,200 miles in South America, crossing the Andes eight times. That ride cannot be done in/on any form of EV, and never will (Ewan McGregor tried, using Harley Livewires supported by Rivians as support trucks - epic fail - watch Long Way Up on Netflix) - because there is not enough money nor people to justify the investment. I

I've owned five EVs, have 124 solar panels on my farm, love the tech, but it is first world stuff. In Western China, where I've motorcycled on a trip from the EU, across Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Siberia, and China, to Hong Kong, there is NO electrical grid - lots of solar panels but no way to transport the power - so they are STILL building and opening 3 new coal power plants every single week - and EVERY town in China has to have its own power plant, no matter how small. Folks who live the world of air conditioning and paved roads haven't a clue how the average person actually lives.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

In most places that matter, it cannot, because it does not even exist.. The U.S. is 4% of world population. Add the EU and we're 8%. The fact is that 90% of the WORLD's roads aren't even paved and half the people alive today have NEVER flushed a toilet in their lives - not once. Folks around here have no clue what's in the real world.

The fact is that 90% of worldwide GPD happens north of the equator. I'm going to ride my motorcycle starting next week for 6,200 miles in South America, crossing the Andes eight times. That ride cannot be done in/on any form of EV, and never will (Ewan McGregor tried, using Harley Livewires supported by Rivians as support trucks - epic fail - watch Long Way Up on Netflix) - because there is not enough money nor people to justify the investment. I

I've owned five EVs, have 124 solar panels on my farm, love the tech, but it is first world stuff. In Western China, where I've motorcycled on a trip from the EU, across Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Siberia, and China, to Hong Kong, there is NO electrical grid - lots of solar panels but no way to transport the power - so they are STILL building and opening 3 new coal power plants every single week - and EVERY town in China has to have its own power plant, no matter how small. Folks who live the world of air conditioning and paved roads haven't a clue how the average person actually lives.

All probably very true but of course completely irrelevant to this discussion which is obviously about the situation here in the US and other industrialized countries. Here it is already starting, accelerating, and will be completed in a few decades.

 

[MM in SouthTX]

All probably very true but of course completely irrelevant to this discussion which is obviously about the situation here in the US and other industrialized countries. Here it is already starting, accelerating, and will be completed in a few decades.

There really is no way to go purely renewable unless you want intermittent power, especially not in a few years. This is 20 years away, minimum, and it will rely on technology that we don’t even know about yet. Battery backup for the entire nation is not attainable nor is it advisable. Look at how much California relied on coal, diesel and natural gas in the past week. I guess V2G might be possible but I’m not smart enough to know if it could work.

As for the comments that say that we should put up with intermittent power…might work for our homes, but not for business. There would be dire economic consequences.

 

[sotek2345]

In most places that matter, it cannot, because it does not even exist.. The U.S. is 4% of world population. Add the EU and we're 8%. The fact is that 90% of the WORLD's roads aren't even paved and half the people alive today have NEVER flushed a toilet in their lives - not once. Folks around here have no clue what's in the real world.

The fact is that 90% of worldwide GPD happens north of the equator. I'm going to ride my motorcycle starting next week for 6,200 miles in South America, crossing the Andes eight times. That ride cannot be done in/on any form of EV, and never will (Ewan McGregor tried, using Harley Livewires supported by Rivians as support trucks - epic fail - watch Long Way Up on Netflix) - because there is not enough money nor people to justify the investment. I

I've owned five EVs, have 124 solar panels on my farm, love the tech, but it is first world stuff. In Western China, where I've motorcycled on a trip from the EU, across Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Siberia, and China, to Hong Kong, there is NO electrical grid - lots of solar panels but no way to transport the power - so they are STILL building and opening 3 new coal power plants every single week - and EVERY town in China has to have its own power plant, no matter how small. Folks who live the world of air conditioning and paved roads haven't a clue how the average person actually lives.

I generally agree with you points, but Never is a long time. It is very hard to predict what economic conditions will be like worldwide in 100 years, let alone 10,000 or 100,000 years.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

All probably very true but of course completely irrelevant to this discussion which is obviously about the situation here in the US and other industrialized countries. Here it is already starting, accelerating, and will be completed in a few decades.

Agreed, and in the big picture, it won’t matter one whit except making the green crowd feel all smug and righteous. Because what we are doing is off-shoring our carbon and smog. Still got that iPhone? There’s a city in China dirtier for it… yes we’ve cleaned up the U.S… by putting our real impacts out of sight - steel and industrial production, mineral extraction for lithium, cobalt, etc. I’ve been to the mines in Peru, Chile, spectacular places making your lifestyle possible that would never be allowed here.

Driving our EVs is not doing one damn thing for the planet. Nor are my solar panels. But if you want to pay me to do an otherwise dumb thing, I will certainly do that thing. Oh, and I didn’t see the forum’s restriction to U.S. and developed countries in the discussion - that’s YOUR bias - because everything we do affects everywhere - we are just spectacularly myopic and navel-gazing creatures who have no idea that when we close a steel plant here another opens somewhere else. So the air is clean in Pittsburgh but the washing machine you just bought was made in South Korea. Air is fungible and moves constantly, as do all environmental impacts. So you cannot restrict such a discussion to your neighborhood, country, continent, etc. All that does is show how little-travelled and aware we are of reality. I’m headed to Antofagasta on Tuesday to throw a leg over my motorcycle, then into the Andes for six weeks… lotsa outdoor bathrooms coming up and very few power lines to be seen, now or ever. Solar panels and batteries actually do work there… if they had the money and know how. The reality is it might be better to preserve the culture and not screw it up with first world priorities. I prefer my indigenous food wood-fired.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I generally agree with you points, but Never is a long time. It is very hard to predict what economic conditions will be like worldwide in 100 years, let alone 10,000 or 100,000 years.

As an economist I am trained to avoid words like never, every, always, etc., so use them sparingly and only for effect. This was a choice and I have confidence in the statement. There are certain things we know about megatrends. Rural areas are depopulating and cities are becoming more concentrated. this is due to better farming methods. That trend will not turn around. Therefore infrastructure delivery to rural areas will generally not increase unless it is done on an economically distorted basis. In some states like North Dakota, formerly paved roads are being ground to gravel because the maintenance is easier and far less expensive, with mileage driven on those roads being way down. My county in Virginia where I have a farm has 32,000 people, down from 85,000 100 years go. It is declining about 5% per decade. That trend will not stop until it reaches an equilibrium where the population reaches the level of economic opportunity (old folks die off, and their kids move away as they see no opportunity, and jobs elsewhere). It is currently distorted by government programs keeping people in place through subsidies, so we have shanty towns with slave-legacy folks - but their kids are largely going away. So our roads are also reverting to tar-and-chip over former paving. It is the RIGHT thing. There will “never” be an electrical grid for the 100,000 people strung along the Carretera Austral in Southern Chile. If there is, it will only be because someone did a very stupid, illogical thing. And I can say with confidence that world GDP will remain 90%+ above the equator, because the trend line is even stronger in that direction, with no countervailing reason that it would reverse.

 

[sotek2345]

As an economist I am trained to avoid words like never, every, always, etc., so use them sparingly and only for effect. This was a choice and I have confidence in the statement. There are certain things we know about megatrends. Rural areas are depopulating and cities are becoming more concentrated. this is due to better farming methods. That trend will not turn around. Therefore infrastructure delivery to rural areas will generally not increase unless it is done on an economically distorted basis. In some states like North Dakota, formerly paved roads are being ground to gravel because the maintenance is easier and far less expensive, with mileage driven on those roads being way down. My county in Virginia where I have a farm has 32,000 people, down from 85,000 100 years go. It is declining about 5% per decade. That trend will not stop until it reaches an equilibrium where the population reaches the level of economic opportunity (old folks die off, and their kids move away as they see no opportunity, and jobs elsewhere). It is currently distorted by government programs keeping people in place through subsidies, so we have shanty towns with slave-legacy folks - but their kids are largely going away. So our roads are also reverting to tar-and-chip over former paving. It is the RIGHT thing. There will “never” be an electrical grid for the 100,000 people strung along the Carretera Austral in Southern Chile. If there is, it will only be because someone did a very stupid, illogical thing. And I can say with confidence that world GDP will remain 90%+ above the equator, because the trend line is even stronger in that direction, with no countervailing reason that it would reverse.

I still think that is thinking on too short of a timescale. For example, let's look at your above the equator statement. What happens when tectonic movement pushes the majority of the landmass below the equator? I would hope GDP would love off planet before the sun goes red giant (we have a few Billion years for this). Never is a very long time.

 

[Tony Burgh]

As an economist I am trained to avoid words like never, every, always, etc., so use them sparingly and only for effect. This was a choice and I have confidence in the statement. There are certain things we know about megatrends. Rural areas are depopulating and cities are becoming more concentrated. this is due to better farming methods. That trend will not turn around. Therefore infrastructure delivery to rural areas will generally not increase unless it is done on an economically distorted basis. In some states like North Dakota, formerly paved roads are being ground to gravel because the maintenance is easier and far less expensive, with mileage driven on those roads being way down. My county in Virginia where I have a farm has 32,000 people, down from 85,000 100 years go. It is declining about 5% per decade. That trend will not stop until it reaches an equilibrium where the population reaches the level of economic opportunity (old folks die off, and their kids move away as they see no opportunity, and jobs elsewhere). It is currently distorted by government programs keeping people in place through subsidies, so we have shanty towns with slave-legacy folks - but their kids are largely going away. So our roads are also reverting to tar-and-chip over former paving. It is the RIGHT thing. There will “never” be an electrical grid for the 100,000 people strung along the Carretera Austral in Southern Chile. If there is, it will only be because someone did a very stupid, illogical thing. And I can say with confidence that world GDP will remain 90%+ above the equator, because the trend line is even stronger in that direction, with no countervailing reason that it would reverse.

When you were working, any chance you were paid by the word?

 

[gorwell]

Fine, if you think that CA electric grid is managed well, I'm not even going to try convincing you

Lived in CA my whole life, 38 years. Never had a power outage not caused by weather taking down a poll and even then it was maybe just 2 hours.

My internet goes out more than my power by a factor of like 100.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Agreed, and in the big picture, it won’t matter one whit except making the green crowd feel all smug and righteous. Because what we are doing is off-shoring our carbon and smog. Still got that iPhone? There’s a city in China dirtier for it… yes we’ve cleaned up the U.S… by putting our real impacts out of sight - steel and industrial production, mineral extraction for lithium, cobalt, etc. I’ve been to the mines in Peru, Chile, spectacular places making your lifestyle possible that would never be allowed here.

Driving our EVs is not doing one damn thing for the planet. Nor are my solar panels. But if you want to pay me to do an otherwise dumb thing, I will certainly do that thing. Oh, and I didn’t see the forum’s restriction to U.S. and developed countries in the discussion - that’s YOUR bias - because everything we do affects everywhere - we are just spectacularly myopic and navel-gazing creatures who have no idea that when we close a steel plant here another opens somewhere else. So the air is clean in Pittsburgh but the washing machine you just bought was made in South Korea. Air is fungible and moves constantly, as do all environmental impacts. So you cannot restrict such a discussion to your neighborhood, country, continent, etc. All that does is show how little-travelled and aware we are of reality. I’m headed to Antofagasta on Tuesday to throw a leg over my motorcycle, then into the Andes for six weeks… lotsa outdoor bathrooms coming up and very few power lines to be seen, now or ever. Solar panels and batteries actually do work there… if they had the money and know how. The reality is it might be better to preserve the culture and not screw it up with first world priorities. I prefer my indigenous food wood-fired.

Glad you’re looking at the big picture, but the post that started this thread specifically asked about expanding generating capacity here in the US, hence my attempt to refocus the discussion in that direction. What I don’t really understand is your fatalism and negativity: please be assured that the same human ingenuity that got us to our prosperous present will also easily deliver us a fossil fuel free future. As with everything else, the tech is first deployed here, but will trickle to the rest of the world as needed over time.

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