Electrical demand with more EVs on the road. Is there enough power supply for future growth?

[cvalue13]

There were and are plenty. But they chose to do two really stupid things - over-focus on renewables without also planning for the collateral needs that come with them (grid leveling batteries, etc.,), and they increased reliance on Russian oil and gas despite wise advice to the contrary. THEY now see the folly and are scrambling - there are solutions, including more extraction in friendlier/safer places like North America. So no, it isn’t thin air. Contrary to the old 1980’s myth that hydrocarbons will run out in the near term, we now have more known reserves than at any time in history - in fact as far forward as we can see, with many more technologies and needed locations yet to explore. Fracking has been a godsend. A green warming alarmist’s nightmare - but a reality. The EU had choices, and made bad ones. Andrea Merkel was Exhibit A, but she had a lot of company. They now rue those decisions, and are quickly finding solutions, so yes, clearly there were and are sources, always were.

The deal in this photograph being signed by Greenlee (then president XOM upstream) and Sechin (still chief exec of Rosneft), I negotiated on behalf of the Russians. (Even applied those pink “sign here” flags.)

Which is background to say two things:

(1) I don’t need lectures about hydrocarbons

(2) Your facts are wrong

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[cvalue13]

So yeah, know a thing or two about hydrocarbons and oil flows. EU made huge affirmative mistakes and is now being bailed out by us.

doing a bank-side real estate “deal” to sell $70M of convenience stores in New York in 2000 taught you about the modern upstream hydrocarbon industry and European energy policy?

everyone’s done with this

 

[cvalue13]

Huh? Try an entire oil company in 1988 with a separate $1.4 billion spin, the second deal I mentioned to create the REIT. That was my personal deal but comanaged the original sale of operations to Lukoil too. Negotiated personally with the Russians and State Department. Still have two state dept travel licenses, have spent months in Russia. Most recently in 2018, a full month, in retirement but catching up. And we had people to do the paperwork and put on the signature arrow stickies. Fees alone were over $70 million. 1,100 gas stations and 4 refineries is a lot more than $70 million. What do YOU know about oil distribution if that’s what you assess? Also far beyond New York.

I first met Putin at this 2003 ribbon cutting event in Manhattan after my banking team put together the deal to sell Getty Oil to Lukoil in 1998

 

[cvalue13]

Try an entire oil company in 1988

would have been hard to sell Getty in 1988, given that arguably the most famous civil case in history had settled three years prior, which finalized the sale of all material Getty assets

 

[cvalue13]

There were a LOT of legal entities involved n that transaction. Over 1,200 separate corporations were transacted. Total value exceeded $2 billion. Enterprise value of GTY was $1.4 billion at IPO. It still trades, look it up.

Im familiar

the point isn’t whether there were a bunch of ancillary transactions, including a real estate REIT, etc.

the point instead, is this: none of those transactions appears to have anything at all to do with you, as a bank-side “deal” guy no less, remotely touching anything that gives you particular insight into the modern upstream O&G sector, much less on the Continent.

In the later ‘90s, only the corpse of Getty O&G remained. A thousand or so retail convenience stores, some ancillary downstream refinery, all domestic and regional in nature. (Anything else material of Getty upstream long before divested.)

now, I don’t really give a damn in either event, your initial comments alone were enoug for me to know you were out of your bailiwick and essentially just regurgitating public-spectacle dogma from a certain sector of pop-culture politics (myopic in its understanding or interest in anything that is complicated and tethered to reality) - it’s just that you flew then in with your feathers puffed lecturing about your expertise in O&G when it turns out the best bona fides you can muster (and lord knows you would if you could) is unrelated and irrelevant experience from 25 years ago for someregional US real estate transactions - from the bank side

I need or care to provide my CV, except to say it’s contemporary and relevant.

I think anyone left reading the thread and with some sense gets the vibes here, and I’m sure is as over it as I am

 

[The Rogue Robot]

How does this affect owners who are new to EV? Is there anything in place to expand the capacity at a state level, or even federally? Will this cause electric costs to rise as well?

I’m very new to this and was just curious how people handle this currently if they plan on having their truck charged and there is an unexpected outage.

@metroshot have you dealt with this before?

To ignore the rest of the shit posted on this thread and actually answer your questions:

1) how do the blackouts affect owners who are new to EVs? No different than blackouts affect gas powered vehicles. Gas pumps run on electricity. No power, no gas.
What does affect people is the fear mongering of it. Plug in when you get home, stay fairly fully charged and you shouldn’t have issues.

2) Expanding the power grid: yes. We are constantly expanding the power grid, although not as fast as what’s been needed to keep up with our power demands (no just EVs). It wasn’t common for a house in the 80’s in some areas to have AC. Older homes in the 80’s often had 100 amp service, which by todays standards is extremely under served. My 1958 house had two circuits for all the bedrooms and plugs. My 2007 house has a circuit for each room another for the bathrooms, two in the kitchen, not counting the microwave and garbage disposal which have their own… our power needs have changed greatly even in the past 15 years. Throwing EVs into the mix is increasing power demand, however when EVs charge overnight during off peak times it helps balance out the stress on the grid. Look up the duck curve. EV charging isn’t the reason for blackouts. It doesn’t help, but it’s not the reason.

3) will this cause power costs to rise? yes and no. Increase of demand is requiring more power production. If we can shift to power storage to save over production of renewables, especially solar, then it should bring costs down significantly. In reality, costs will continue to rise.

Long answer short: keep the truck mostly charged (not 100% for battery longevity but 80-90%) and if there’s a power outage do as others with gas engines will do and conserve your range as they will need to as well. No power, no gas pumps.
If you have home solar and batteries however, you should be able to use that to charge so there is a step up over ICE vehicles.

 

[SmokingtheMeats]

To ignore the rest of the shit posted on this thread and actually answer your questions:

1) how do the blackouts affect owners who are new to EVs? No different than blackouts affect gas powered vehicles. Gas pumps run on electricity. No power, no gas.
What does affect people is the fear mongering of it. Plug in when you get home, stay fairly fully charged and you shouldn’t have issues.

2) Expanding the power grid: yes. We are constantly expanding the power grid, although not as fast as what’s been needed to keep up with our power demands (no just EVs). It wasn’t common for a house in the 80’s in some areas to have AC. Older homes in the 80’s often had 100 amp service, which by todays standards is extremely under served. My 1958 house had two circuits for all the bedrooms and plugs. My 2007 house has a circuit for each room another for the bathrooms, two in the kitchen, not counting the microwave and garbage disposal which have their own… our power needs have changed greatly even in the past 15 years. Throwing EVs into the mix is increasing power demand, however when EVs charge overnight during off peak times it helps balance out the stress on the grid. Look up the duck curve. EV charging isn’t the reason for blackouts. It doesn’t help, but it’s not the reason.

3) will this cause power costs to rise? yes and no. Increase of demand is requiring more power production. If we can shift to power storage to save over production of renewables, especially solar, then it should bring costs down significantly. In reality, costs will continue to rise.

Long answer short: keep the truck mostly charged (not 100% for battery longevity but 80-90%) and if there’s a power outage do as others with gas engines will do and conserve your range as they will need to as well. No power, no gas pumps.
If you have home solar and batteries however, you should be able to use that to charge so there is a step up over ICE vehicles.

I was asking more so how does it affect people that charge overnight, every night. Will the charging begin again once power is restored? People that are dependent on the charge might have an issue, I assumed, and while more people are buying EVs, we need to ramp up infrastructure to support the demand as we are already impacted.

 

[greenne]

To ignore the rest of the shit posted on this thread and actually answer your questions:

1) how do the blackouts affect owners who are new to EVs? No different than blackouts affect gas powered vehicles. Gas pumps run on electricity. No power, no gas.
What does affect people is the fear mongering of it. Plug in when you get home, stay fairly fully charged and you shouldn’t have issues.

2) Expanding the power grid: yes. We are constantly expanding the power grid, although not as fast as what’s been needed to keep up with our power demands (no just EVs). It wasn’t common for a house in the 80’s in some areas to have AC. Older homes in the 80’s often had 100 amp service, which by todays standards is extremely under served. My 1958 house had two circuits for all the bedrooms and plugs. My 2007 house has a circuit for each room another for the bathrooms, two in the kitchen, not counting the microwave and garbage disposal which have their own… our power needs have changed greatly even in the past 15 years. Throwing EVs into the mix is increasing power demand, however when EVs charge overnight during off peak times it helps balance out the stress on the grid. Look up the duck curve. EV charging isn’t the reason for blackouts. It doesn’t help, but it’s not the reason.

3) will this cause power costs to rise? yes and no. Increase of demand is requiring more power production. If we can shift to power storage to save over production of renewables, especially solar, then it should bring costs down significantly. In reality, costs will continue to rise.

Long answer short: keep the truck mostly charged (not 100% for battery longevity but 80-90%) and if there’s a power outage do as others with gas engines will do and conserve your range as they will need to as well. No power, no gas pumps.
If you have home solar and batteries however, you should be able to use that to charge so there is a step up over ICE vehicles.

What gets me is everyone is ranting and raving about EVs straining the grid while ignoring the fact that EVs impact the grid a whole hell of a lot less than adding AC to millions of homes because our environment has gotten too damn hot in a lot of places. The EV "doomsday" folks seem to ignore that...

Also, most EVs are/will be charging at night when demand is lower.

 

[cvalue13]

I was asking more so how does it affect people that charge overnight, every night. Will the charging begin again once power is restored? People that are dependent on the charge might have an issue, I assumed, and while more people are buying EVs, we need to ramp up infrastructure to support the demand as we are already impacted.

To ignore the rest of the shit posted on this thread and actually answer your questions:

that’s what you get for trying to get an internet forum thread back on topic

we need to ramp up infrastructure to support the demand as we are already impacted.

as @The Rogue Robot referenced in their past post, ramping up infrastructure has been and will continue to be a challenge with or without EVs

Over the last several decades, we’ve all become absolute electricity pigs

the infrastructure has been keeping up or struggling to keep up all along, sometimes succeeding, sometimes failing

there’s some missing nuance (or dark irony) to anyone critiquing EVs for creating additional demand whist they sit in some version of their 4,000sq foot home with 4 HVAC zones set to 72 degrees, all electric appliances, floor to ceiling glass, daylight-levels of landscape lightning, 300+ amp service, etc., etc.

as for blackout effects: it’s irrelevant compared to ICE vehicles

just as a person with a BEV may unfortunately miss charge in an unexpected overnight blackout, so too does an ICE driver end up in a pickle if they haven’t happened to have refueled recently

my wife’s ICE seems to perpetually be near empty somehow - in a lengthy blackout it won’t be magically full!

 

[ExCivilian]

What gets me is everyone is ranting and raving about EVs straining the grid while ignoring the fact that EVs impact the grid a whole hell of a lot less than adding AC to millions of homes because our environment has gotten too damn hot in a lot of places. The EV "doomsday" folks seem to ignore that...

Also, most EVs are/will be charging at night when demand is lower.

That and they're also ignoring the facts that CA managed to get through a record heat wave and provided the most power in its entire history to its citizens without any blackout waves whereas Oregon is still planning on rolling blackouts: https://news.yahoo.com/pacific-power-cpi-plan-power-005420930.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma

It's a story because CA, our governor's public statement that we're going all in on EVs over the next decade, and climate change are all hot button political issues.

 

[The Rogue Robot]

That and they're also ignoring the facts that CA managed to get through a record heat wave and provided the most power in its entire history to its citizens without any blackout waves whereas Oregon is still planning on rolling blackouts: https://news.yahoo.com/pacific-power-cpi-plan-power-005420930.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma

It's a story because CA, our governor's public statement that we're going all in on EVs over the next decade, and climate change are all hot button political issues.

Shutting off power because of the very real issues of power lines causing forest fires is different than not being able to supply power to the grid because of excess demand.

 

[sotek2345]

I was asking more so how does it affect people that charge overnight, every night. Will the charging begin again once power is restored? People that are dependent on the charge might have an issue, I assumed, and while more people are buying EVs, we need to ramp up infrastructure to support the demand as we are already impacted.

That depends on your individual setup. If you have a "dumb" EVSE it should restart when the power comes back on, as long as your vehicle is set to charge at that time.

If you have a "smarter" EVSE with more controls/diagnostics it may or may not depending on brand, settings, etc.

 

[The Rogue Robot]

I was asking more so how does it affect people that charge overnight, every night. Will the charging begin again once power is restored? People that are dependent on the charge might have an issue, I assumed, and while more people are buying EVs, we need to ramp up infrastructure to support the demand as we are already impacted.

Yes, power restored *should* begin the charging again. Depending on the car and EVSE there may be issues where they need to be unplugged and plugged back in. My Bolt has gone through a power blip and restarted just fine.

People who depend on a full charge for a long commute with a power outage aren't all that different than those in a gas vehicle who do the same. No power, no gas pumps.

And while the demand EVs are putting on the grid is increasing, the demand AC puts on the grid is much, MUCH larger. These links explain a little more about what needs to be done, and the short answer is STORAGE. MASSIVE amounts of storage.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/confronting-duck-curve-how-address-over-generation-solar-energy

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/the-solar-power-duck-curve-explained/

 

[greenne]

That and they're also ignoring the facts that CA managed to get through a record heat wave and provided the most power in its entire history to its citizens without any blackout waves whereas Oregon is still planning on rolling blackouts: https://news.yahoo.com/pacific-power-cpi-plan-power-005420930.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma

It's a story because CA, our governor's public statement that we're going all in on EVs over the next decade, and climate change are all hot button political issues.

Its a story because people can't fathom that electrical grids can change(improve) over time with proper investment.

It also ignores the fact that even when the ICE vehicle "ban" takes place, it will only apply to new vehicle sales. There will still be millions of ICE vehicles on the road and it will take many, many years AFTER 2035 to achieve massive numbers of EVs to cause concern.

 

[jerock]

Volts podcast titled The long, sordid (ongoing) tale of California's biggest utility is worth the listen. It gives a good perspective on what California faces with their electric system.
https://pca.st/episode/b9905c41-417c-4f3e-83de-90e40c7ca380

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