Next GEN Ford F-150 Lightning Better Than Cybertruck: Farley

[djwildstar]

I thought I read that T3 would be a ranger sized truck. Is it really the next gen Lightning?

It is pretty clear that Ford intends to release several new EVs right around the same time, and the smart money says that they will include a 3-row SUV, a second-generation Lightning, and a smaller (either Ranger or Maverick) pickup.

The automotive press has different opinions about exactly which pickup is "T3". Some think that "T3" will be a second-generation Lightning and the smaller electric pickup will be small potatoes, while other folks think that "T3" is the smaller-than-Lightning pickup and a second-generation Lightning will just be a supporting character.

I'm not sure that it really matters which one is "really" T3 -- I just want the details on all of them!

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[BedFullOfElectronZ]

They are what we thought they were. Same batteries in a different package.

From an article in CleanTechnica from a couple of years ago: "According to the [Tesla] Battery Day presentation, the 4680 cells and structural battery pack design were expected to increase vehicle range by as much as 54%, decrease the weight of the vehicle, improve acceleration, and be less expensive and more sustainable to produce." Despite these promises, the reality is more like what you note: same basic performance in a different package. Additionally, I'll note that the 4680 Tesla vehicles appear to have a worse charging curve than cars with 2170 cells.

 

[FordLightningMan]

From an article in CleanTechnica from a couple of years ago: "According to the [Tesla] Battery Day presentation, the 4680 cells and structural battery pack design were expected to increase vehicle range by as much as 54%, decrease the weight of the vehicle, improve acceleration, and be less expensive and more sustainable to produce." Despite these promises, the reality is more like what you note: same basic performance in a different package. Additionally, I'll note that the 4680 Tesla vehicles appear to have a worse charging curve than cars with 2170 cells.

I assume the price for 4680 will come down and manufacturing speed will improve over the next 2-3 years. The reality is that will only help Tesla's margins, this doesn't look like it is helping their buyers at all. The fact the range is essentially the same and the charging speed is worse is a significant miss by Tesla.

 

[The Weatherman]

To be fair, parts and components designed in house tend to be more reliable than having to wrangle 50 different suppliers. The maverick for instance was the first case of Ford engineering and building their electric motors in house, and those trucks are very reliable. The maverick has a better reliability score than most of the trucks on sale, love ours.

But beyond that, t3 will also be a much simpler platform. So that should also improve reliability. By the time it comes out, they will have been developing it for like 6-7 years, so they've had plenty of time to test and develop it.

Not to mention all of their software will be in house, which is another thing working in favor of the reliability. Having all the software designed by the same teams to work together harmlessly from the beginning, rather than bringing in software from 15 different groups who've never interacted.

Had two Mavericks for a year and half. Miss those little trucks. I just had EV and Self Driving on my bucket list so I went for Lightning. Score!

I also have seeing men walk on Mars on that list, but I’m getting pretty skeptical about that happening in limited lifetime remaining.

 

[Texas Dan]

Cybertruck be damned. Efficiency be damned. Ford needs to focus on building trucks not futuristic moon buggies.

Ford needs to use a bigger hammer, develop truck chassis with the highest payload possible and the biggest battery pack possible with the fastest charging speed possible. Ford needs to bust the EV truck market wide open by offering not only the F150 with all the different configurations but also F250s, F350s, F450s, etc. The F150 Lightning is just going to be seen as a marketing exercise until Ford starts electrifying all the F-series models, configurations and trims.

 

[cal]

From an article in CleanTechnica from a couple of years ago: "According to the [Tesla] Battery Day presentation, the 4680 cells and structural battery pack design were expected to increase vehicle range by as much as 54%, decrease the weight of the vehicle, improve acceleration, and be less expensive and more sustainable to produce." Despite these promises, the reality is more like what you note: same basic performance in a different package. Additionally, I'll note that the 4680 Tesla vehicles appear to have a worse charging curve than cars with 2170 cells.

Yea I’m thinking the 4680 is way short of expectations. But of course no one in the Tesla forums will bring it up. Another Musk prediction busted. Right now this battery is nothing close to the major points stressed during that Battery Day presentation.

 

[ReputableRaccoon]

If the next gen Lightning can charge close to what Hyundai/Kia's 800V current gen EVs are able to, that will be a huge leap forward in usability. Imagine holding 250kW to 70%, on a 131kWh pack that would be about 22 minutes with 91kWh added. If we can get more DCFC stations that offer better accommodations for trailering that will be a game changer in usability.

Let's hope Ford is implementing the same series/parallel battery pack trick that GM and Tesla are using on the Cybertruck so that the truck still charge well on Tesla's 400V Supercharger network.

 

[T3Fan]

Cybertruck be damned. Efficiency be damned. Ford needs to focus on building trucks not futuristic moon buggies.

Ford needs to use a bigger hammer, develop truck chassis with the highest payload possible and the biggest battery pack possible with the fastest charging speed possible. Ford needs to bust the EV truck market wide open by offering not only the F150 with all the different configurations but also F250s, F350s, F450s, etc. The F150 Lightning is just going to be seen as a marketing exercise until Ford starts electrifying all the F-series models, configurations and trims.

I'd disagree on the biggest battery possible and as of last year so did Farley: https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/22/23733215/ford-ev-battery-size-weight-safety-jim-farley.
There's no real point in a 5-ton T3 unless it's meant solely for commercial use. Even then, the battery tech required to make comparable >1/2 ton EV offerings to their ICE counterparts at reasonable prices and efficiency isn't widely available. You'd have another $110k Hummer EV, a terribly inefficient vehicle that doesn't bring anything unique compared to its Ultium platform mates except crab walk and destroying roads and driveways with its heft.

The Gen 1 Lightning was more or less a marketing exercise. From the data Ford referenced, many Lightning owners have never owned a Ford product. T3 will be the ground-up EV platform, so hopefully, they will focus on software, charging efficiency, and cost savings.

 

[Texas Dan]

I'd disagree on the biggest battery possible and as of last year so did Farley: https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/22/23733215/ford-ev-battery-size-weight-safety-jim-farley.
There's no real point in a 5-ton T3 unless it's meant solely for commercial use. Even then, the battery tech required to make comparable >1/2 ton EV offerings to their ICE counterparts at reasonable prices and efficiency isn't widely available. You'd have another $110k Hummer EV, a terribly inefficient vehicle that doesn't bring anything unique compared to its Ultium platform mates except crab walk and destroying roads and driveways with its heft.

The Gen 1 Lightning was more or less a marketing exercise. From the data Ford referenced, many Lightning owners have never owned a Ford product. T3 will be the ground-up EV platform, so hopefully, they will focus on software, charging efficiency, and cost savings.

Of course there has to a balance but Ford needs to build EVs that can compete with ALL the F-series models and configurations. The current F150 Lightning does not meet the needs of all or even most truck buyers. If the T3 reduces the price of building an EV truck I’m all for it but Ford mustn’t lose sight of the fact that they need a scalable F-series EV platform, not just another F150 EV.

 

[T3Fan]

Of course there has to a balance but Ford needs to build EVs that can compete with ALL the F-series models and configurations. The current F150 Lightning does not meet the needs of all or even most truck buyers. If the T3 reduces the price of building an EV truck I’m all for it but Ford mustn’t lose sight of the fact that they need a scalable F-series EV platform, not just another F150 EV.

I’d only add, Ford is not trying to get every single truck buyer. They’re trying to get the most profitable, and ideally as they scale that focus expands. Ford cannot afford (lol) to electrify the entire F series and they won’t be able to for quite a while. I mean technically they could afford, it’s just the market would react and Farley would be fired.

I’m sure that’s an aspirational goal but it took Tesla a decade, billions in subsidies and the benefit of being a “tech startup” allowing them to hemorrhage hundreds of millions a year to get where they are. It’s going to take Ford a bit longer because they have more legacy infrastructure issues.

 

[TaxmanHog]

Ford cannot afford (lol) to electrify the entire F series and they won’t be able to for quite a while. I mean technically they could afford, it’s just the market would react and Farley would be fired.

Correct, Ford is looking in the direction of FCEV for F250+ models.

I'd be happy to see an 800v architecture matched to the most energy dense cells for T3 as a 1/2 ton truck.

 

[FordLightningMan]

Of course there has to a balance but Ford needs to build EVs that can compete with ALL the F-series models and configurations. The current F150 Lightning does not meet the needs of all or even most truck buyers. If the T3 reduces the price of building an EV truck I’m all for it but Ford mustn’t lose sight of the fact that they need a scalable F-series EV platform, not just another F150 EV.

I agree that the current Lightning certainly does not meet the needs of all truck buyers. I'd counter argue that it does meet the needs of most truck buyers. The majority of people I know with trucks never tow, only those that do would really have a hard time with EV trucks. There's also the extreme minority of people who drive 400+ miles a day regularly, especially in colder climates, who would have issues. Take away those two sub-groups, and you have a truck that's perfect for most buyers in the Lightning.

Then it gets tricky, do you make the next truck considerably more expensive for these two minority of owners sub-groups? This would make advertisements of specs look better and maybe open the door for a few more people. But adding abilities to tow or go 500 miles prices out the majority, wouldn't that be a fail for Ford?

I'd be curious if they sold the same Lightning with a 550 mile battery pack for $130k, what would be the sales numbers? How hard would it be to make this customized spec?

 

[Texas Dan]

I’d only add, Ford is not trying to get every single truck buyer. They’re trying to get the most profitable, and ideally as they scale that focus expands. Ford cannot afford (lol) to electrify the entire F series and they won’t be able to for quite a while. I mean technically they could afford, it’s just the market would react and Farley would be fired.

I’m sure that’s an aspirational goal but it took Tesla a decade, billions in subsidies and the benefit of being a “tech startup” allowing them to hemorrhage hundreds of millions a year to get where they are. It’s going to take Ford a bit longer because they have more legacy infrastructure issues.

You don’t seem to get it. With CAFE and CARB the governments are forcing ICEs off the road. Ford HAS to make ALL the new F-series Zero Emission Vehicles within ten years or Ford won’t be able to sell them anymore.

 

[T3Fan]

You don’t seem to get it. With CAFE and CARB the governments are forcing ICEs off the road. Ford HAS to make ALL the new F-series Zero Emission Vehicles within ten years or Ford won’t be able to sell them anymore.

I get it. Just saying there are ways that accomplish those emissions standards that don’t include a complete F-Series transition to BEV within 10 years. If you don’t think Ford/GM and others didn’t have their lobbying arms involved in all of these regs you’re being a bit naive.

Not to mention it just takes one amenable Congress to change those dates. At least from a US perspective nothing is set in stone, globally it’s probably a different story.

 

[Zprime29]

You don’t seem to get it. With CAFE and CARB the governments are forcing ICEs off the road. Ford HAS to make ALL the new F-series Zero Emission Vehicles within ten years or Ford won’t be able to sell them anymore.

Technology simply isn't there yet to handle heavy duty use cases. I'm not convinced it will be available in 10 years either. I'd like to think Ford has their finger on the pulse of what's coming down the pipeline and is acting accordingly. I don't see heavy duty trucks going zero emissions for a long while. Would be happy to be wrong about this.

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