Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[Brian Head Yankee]

remember we are all in 3000 lines. Let's say Ford gives one allocation to each dealer in the first round. I might be first in line at my small town dealer and you might be 10th in line at your large metro dealer. Even though you reserved earlier than me, I might jump you in line. The Ford "influencer" scenario mentioned above is also a real thing. Head over to the Bronco forum and see what a shit show it turned into.

You essentially paid $100 to provide a survey to Ford. They absolutely will NOT honor your timestamp in exact order so don't stress out over your timestamp. Keep you expectations in check...

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[greenne]

FWIW, Ford announced they have 100k reservations for the Maverick. If they are using the same reservation system then that is a portion of the reservation numbers right there.

Ford Maverick tops 100,000 reservations as customers await production (autoblog.com)

I also imagine we'll see some cancelations if Rivians starts delivering in Sept like they have indicated....

 

[ChasingCoral]

Thank You. I did exactly what I hate others do. I failed to search the forum before asking a question.

Slightly longer answer: sort of.

 

[Shannon]

Considering the Lightning will be somewhat limited upon introduction, I may as well wait for the 2nd generation in 2025. At least the bugs should be worked out.

 

[vandy1981]

Head over to the Bronco forum and see what a shit show it turned into.

Can you link to any threads you've been following that address this question?

 

[RLXXI]

Considering the Lightning will be somewhat limited upon introduction, I may as well wait for the 2nd generation in 2025. At least the bugs should be worked out.

...or newly added

 

[F150ROD]

Ford is moving to an order system much like Tesla's. I'm wondering if there will even be any on lots other than Demo's the first year. What I can say is good luck to buyers thinking they will be able to get one from the lot at a decent price.

Dealers: "This is a limited edition truck, only $15k were made worldwide" "Other dealers are charging up to $25K extra, we only want $15K" lol......... and this will be on a Pro or XLT.

Just a thought though, if the 2nd year model comes out in 2025 it might be worth it to place another $100 reservation and hope it gets converted to a second year model....hmmmm

 

[RLXXI]

Ford is moving to an order system much like Tesla's. I'm wondering if there will even be any on lots other than Demo's the first year. What I can say is good luck to buyers thinking they will be able to get one from the lot at a decent price.

Dealers: "This is a limited edition truck, only $15k were made worldwide" "Other dealers are charging up to $25K extra, we only want $15K" lol......... and this will be on a Pro or XLT.

Just a thought though, if the 2nd year model comes out in 2025 it might be worth it to place another $100 reservation and hope it gets converted to a second year model....hmmmm

They've already released preliminary pricing for every model. If they vary much from that MSRP to begin with would be a suicide move for any company wishing to move product and Ford has NEVER been one of those kind of companies.

Henry built this company on a simple fact of building a car for the everyman. I've found over the years this model of business to still be true. Affordable, reliable.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I can't think of anything on the lightning that is actually new, new. The battery and motors are different than the mach-e but can be from the same supplier using the same manufacturing processes just a different design.

I think you’re right in general but not on the limiting supply: the batteries. LG makes the Mach E batteries while SKI will make the Lightning batteries

Ok so if 10% convert to orders then there's your 12k....I would think there will be a much higher conversion rate than that.

The question is then of the 200,000 initial "Reservations" what does the conversion rate look like? FIfty percent (50%)? Twenty five percent (25%)?

Expect 60-75% based on the Mach E and Bronco.

remember we are all in 3000 lines. Let's say Ford gives one allocation to each dealer in the first round. I might be first in line at my small town dealer and you might be 10th in line at your large metro dealer.

Nope. The way the ordering system has worked, these special orders are independent of dealer allocations.

Priority is based on the time stamp (not reservation number). That will determine your place in line — off and only if you convert to am order promptly.

Build order is another matter for another discussion because earlier reservations get their trucks, they just may not arrive in order.

 

[astricklin]

I think a lot of people are in for sticker shock when they go to configure a lightning. This year is an anomaly, but typically an F-150 goes for about $10k off MSRP. An XLT can be had for $35-45k depending on options. Maybe even a little bit less for a lower end one. The lightning XLT is going to start at $53. I have a feeling most people are going to want the extended range battery because they want their truck to do everything all the time and the will "need" the range. Your looking at $60k before getting any additional options. XLT+ with extended range and you're pushing $70k. That's getting close to double a gas powered truck. I can buy a gas XLT and a bolt/leaf/mini/base id.4 for the same money. Drive the electric car to/from work and drive the truck on the weekend.
Personally, if I do go through with purchasing a lightning it will be close to 3x more than any vehicle I have purchase so far (2x if I go with the pro). That is a lot of money.
Yes, the pro is a bargain but if Ford is right, then only about 10% will be pro and they will have a lot more lariat and Platinum orders than anything else. Not a lot of people can afford $70k+ for a truck.
Now, do I think Ford will sell as many of them as they can build for many years to come... absolutely. But 80k is maybe 20% (probably less) of the current F-150 volume and I suspect a lot of early purchases will be from electric car buyers wanting a truck and not from truck buyers wanting electric. It's going to take some time for all the friends and neighbors to get jealous of how much better the lightning is.

 

[F150ROD]

They've already released preliminary pricing for every model. If they vary much from that MSRP to begin with would be a suicide move for any company wishing to move product and Ford has NEVER been one of those kind of companies.

Henry built this company on a simple fact of building a car for the everyman. I've found over the years this model of business to still be true. Affordable, reliable.

A Ford Dealer and Ford Motor Co. are two separate entities. This would not be a new practice for Ford Dealers, try to go and buy an ICE F150 right now for MSRP or below.......good luck.

 

[thevofl]

I'm #11110368 which was around 120k as I was part of the night where the 120k mark was set. I think that it will be a year from now. Anyone want to buy my used 2021 Platinum that is still sitting in clean unscheduled status at the end of next year?

 

[ShirBlackspots]

2022: 15,000
2023: 55,000
2024: 80,000
2025: 160,000 on the TE1 platform
2026: Maybe 240,000?
2027: Maybe 320,000?

Currently there are 120,000+ reservations. I reserved mine on Aug 1, with a #11118xxx. This is convenient for me, because I wasn't planning to buy until the end of 2023, into 2024 anyway.

 

[F150ROD]

I think a lot of people are in for sticker shock when they go to configure a lightning. This year is an anomaly, but typically an F-150 goes for about $10k off MSRP. An XLT can be had for $35-45k depending on options. Maybe even a little bit less for a lower end one. The lightning XLT is going to start at $53. I have a feeling most people are going to want the extended range battery because they want their truck to do everything all the time and the will "need" the range. Your looking at $60k before getting any additional options. XLT+ with extended range and you're pushing $70k. That's getting close to double a gas powered truck. I can buy a gas XLT and a bolt/leaf/mini/base id.4 for the same money. Drive the electric car to/from work and drive the truck on the weekend.
Personally, if I do go through with purchasing a lightning it will be close to 3x more than any vehicle I have purchase so far (2x if I go with the pro). That is a lot of money.
Yes, the pro is a bargain but if Ford is right, then only about 10% will be pro and they will have a lot more lariat and Platinum orders than anything else. Not a lot of people can afford $70k+ for a truck.
Now, do I think Ford will sell as many of them as they can build for many years to come... absolutely. But 80k is maybe 20% (probably less) of the current F-150 volume and I suspect a lot of early purchases will be from electric car buyers wanting a truck and not from truck buyers wanting electric. It's going to take some time for all the friends and neighbors to get jealous of how much better the lightning is.

You also have to account for any available rebates given to electric vehicles. For example, personally I am guaranteed at least $3500 and hopefully $7500 if its still available.

 

[astricklin]

Priority is based on the time stamp (not reservation number). That will determine your place in line — off and only if you convert to am order promptly.

I am guessing when they open the orders, we will get an email. Does anyone know from the mach-e and Bronco, do they open orders in waves? Do the dealers get access to ordering at the same time as pre-order holders? Does Ford say how long you have to convert before losing your reservation spot? If I put in a reservation today, but then have a dealer order day one the orders open, will I get the vehicle sooner on the dealer order?

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