2022 Lightning Pro sold out [update: confirmed]

[DadBald]

Ah, the forum's favorite YouTuber! ?

Some of his stuff is ok.

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[Blainestang]

I do not know if you fellows saw this video, but it makes a lot of sense why Ford limited the production of the Pro.

I stopped watching when he claimed there was an early announcement that some people missed that said 15k trucks for MY22.

Ford never announced that. In fact, Fords head of EVs specifically said that number was wrong on the InsideEVs podcast.

Hes super smug about how he’s so up on EV info that he didn’t miss it, but he got it completely wrong.

 

[bparlette]

Tweet at ford and jim farley. They seem to be responding to people that post their lightning orders. Ask him to make it right and bring back the Pro. Link to this forum.

 

[PA Lightning]

I stopped watching when he claimed there was an early announcement that some people missed that said 15k trucks for MY22.

Ford never announced that. In fact, Fords head of EVs specifically said that number was wrong on the InsideEVs podcast.

Hes super smug about how he’s so up on EV info that he didn’t miss it, but he got it completely wrong.

The point he made that I thought was interesting was that Ford priced the Pro at below $40k to compete with the Cyber truck. Now that the Cyber Truck is delayed, Ford does not have to be in that price range for the Lightning.

 

[CoyoteJim]

The point he made that I thought was interesting was that Ford priced the Pro at below $40k to compete with the Cyber truck. Now that the Cyber Truck is delayed, Ford does not have to be in that price range for the Lightning.

Not just delayed, canceled. Musk tweeted they won’t be making a single motor anymore, which was the $40k version.

 

[techguydave]

I do not know if you fellows saw this video, but it makes a lot of sense why Ford limited the production of the Pro.

This guy is a waste of time.

 

[Blainestang]

The point he made that I thought was interesting was that Ford priced the Pro at below $40k to compete with the Cyber truck. Now that the Cyber Truck is delayed, Ford does not have to be in that price range for the Lightning.

I’d agree that they purposely picked that number to undercut Cybertruck even though they had to slash margins to get there (compared to the other trims).

But even if the $40k Cybertruck never happens, Chevy says theirs is $40k base, now, so an that’s even stronger reason to keep the $40k price than the Cybertruck. It’s their most direct, famous rival.

That’s my take anyway.

 

[cts888]

There are commenters on his youtube channel saying that the XLT base model is also sold out

 

[CoyoteJim]

I’d agree that they purposely picked that number to undercut Cybertruck even though they had to slash margins to get there (compared to the other trims).

But even if the $40k Cybertruck never happens, Chevy says theirs is $40k base, now, so an that’s even stronger reason to keep the $40k price than the Cybertruck. It’s their most direct, famous rival.

That’s my take anyway.

This is what I don’t like - this all started with Musk stating something like “everyone should be able to get a really good truck for under $40k.” So Tesla announced a $40k, truck, then Ford to stay competitive with Tesla, then GM to stay competitive with Ford. Now Musk seems to have pulled the rug out after seeing the market will throw $100k at an electric truck if that’s all you give them, so Ford did their minimum run of 500 $40k trucks to retail and will stop that as soon as they see the eye-popping price of the CTs coming out. When GM sees Ford abandon their $40k truck they will too, at least to retail customers. Maybe $50k is the new $40k with inflation now but I don’t think we will even see that again after the ‘22 XLT at $52k.

 

[Blainestang]

There are commenters on his youtube channel saying that the XLT base model is also sold out

No surprise after the Pro and the bar chart in the playbook shows the XLT SR as almost as rare... but still the hits keep coming for anyone who wanted a truck under $63k. Ford should have just said, hey, we're only making Lariats instead of this BS.

 

[Blainestang]

Not just delayed, canceled. Musk tweeted they won’t be making a single motor anymore, which was the $40k version.

Do you have a source for that? Not saying there isn't. I just don't remember an official tweet about it being cancelled.

But either way, they definitely announced very soon after the original unveiling that the $40k version would be delivered LAST after they supposedly had so much more demand for the 2 and 3 motor versions.

Which is why I had a feeling that as soon as Ford started saying how popular the Lariat and Platinum were (after the survey) AND after Wave 1 that they were setting up for making the Pro extremely rare or delayed. People poopoo'd my theory because "Ford says they'll all be available at launch, though!!!" and yet, here we are. Ford is making 17 Pros and 32 XLTs and telling everyone else, sorry, that will be $75k+.

 

[CoyoteJim]

Do you have a source for that? Not saying there isn't. I just don't remember an official tweet about it being cancelled.

But either way, they definitely announced very soon after the original unveiling that the $40k version would be delivered LAST after they supposedly had so much more demand for the 2 and 3 motor versions.

Which is why I had a feeling that as soon as Ford started saying how popular the Lariat and Platinum were (after the survey) AND after Wave 1 that they were setting up for making the Pro extremely rare or delayed. People poopoo'd my theory because "Ford says they'll all be available at launch, though!!!" and yet, here we are. Ford is making 17 Pros and 32 XLTs and telling everyone else, sorry, that will be $75k+.

I’m sorry, you’re right. It was included in several stories about Musk’s tweets but it was actually a rumor from another source. I think it’s likely, though.
https://insideevs.com/news/552335/musk-tesla-cybertruck-quad-motor/amp/

 

[Blainestang]

This is what I don’t like - this all started with Musk stating something like “everyone should be able to get a really good truck for under $40k.” So Tesla announced a $40k, truck, then Ford to stay competitive with Tesla, then GM to stay competitive with Ford. Now Musk seems to have pulled the rug out after seeing the market will throw $100k at an electric truck if that’s all you give them, so Ford did their minimum run of 500 $40k trucks to retail and will stop that as soon as they see the eye-popping price of the CTs coming out. When GM sees Ford abandon their $40k truck they will too, at least to retail customers. Maybe $50k is the new $40k with inflation now but I don’t think we will even see that again after the ‘22 XLT at $52k.

Well, the '22 XLT SR looks like it's sold out, too, apparently.

But yeah, I don't have any confidence that Ford or Chevy will sell any meaningful numbers of retail Pros/WTs over the next few years. Financially, it would be stupid to do so, so they probably won't.

The problem is that they PRETEND like they will, but they probably won't. Even if they stick to a similar percentage of Pros for the next couple years, it may still be several years before current reservation holders who want a Pro can get one. Somewhere around 4% of Lightnings will be Pros this year... which is ~1000 or less. 4% of 80k for 2023 (I think that's the right number, they keep changing it because the person who set the original demand estimate was an idiot) would be 3200 Pros. 4% of 160k for 2024 would be 6400 Pros. That's ~10,600 pros for the first 3 years. And then it's about time for the next Gen. If that's the case, and there's no reason to believe that it won't be, then many, many people who have reservations expecting a Pro will not get a 1st gen Pro. Maybe 50%+ of them. Some of them might move up to more expensive versions, but people who reserved with the plan of getting a Pro, 50%-70% of them might not get one until Gen 2, IMO.

 

[Blainestang]

I’m sorry, you’re right. It was included in several stories about Musk’s tweets but it was actually a rumor from another source. I think it’s likely, though.
https://insideevs.com/news/552335/musk-tesla-cybertruck-quad-motor/amp/

I think it may get cancelled, too. But any way we slice it, Tesla announced almost from the beginning that the $40k version would come LAST and it won't be here for years.

Plenty of things to complain about Tesla about, but they're being more honest about the $40k version than Ford is at this point.

 

[rodhx]

That’s Tesla SOP though so no surprise to anyone who has followed the company through the years. Just ask all the folks that ordered a standard range RWD Model Y. Tesla DID make them, for about a month, and then abandoned all those orders.

Tha’s two unfortunate trends I’ll pin on Tesla. The megabuck “first/launch/etc editions” and everyone’s rush to have a stupid glass roof.

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