contractors will buy millions of Lightnings

[TaxmanHog]

I love that you’re thinking big and out of the box, but you’re almost trying to take too big of a step.

Here is what I was reading a while ago, though it's Ultra High Voltage DC !!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...world-energy-lies-in-uhvdc-transmission-lines

https://www.power-technology.com/features/chinas-mega-transmission-lines/

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[RonTCat]

Here is what I was reading a while ago, though it's Ultra High Voltage DC !!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...world-energy-lies-in-uhvdc-transmission-lines

https://www.power-technology.com/features/chinas-mega-transmission-lines/

Ultra High Voltage for the "normal" grid is 100+ years off.

Ultra high DC has two "killer apps"
1) It can efficiently transfer power between two AC grids, and they don't have to be phased, or even at the same frequency, say 50Hz and 60Hz
2) It doesn't have the same capacitance issue that greatly restricts underground AC power line length.

Why not use Ultra High DC widely?
1) AC/AC conversion is accomplished by a cheap transformer. DC/DC conversion equipment is super expensive.
2) Safety: DC circuit breakers either don't exist for certain applications, or they are super expensive.

So you see Ultra High Voltage DC transmission only where it has its strengths
1) Long distances where you ONLY need power taps at the end points, avoiding multiple DC/DC converters, especially places where overhead is not easy (the ocean, for instance)
2) Short distances where you are connecting two AC grids, where you can easily transfer large amounts of power without worrying about phasing.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Straw man? Really?

You are talking small area, when the problem is with the grid. Solar and wind cannot power the grid.

Sorry if you cant understand this.

It’s really simple: solar and wind are already putting out a lot of energy today. Since they’re a lot cheaper than fossil fuels, they are being built out quickly while fossil plants are being retired. As this buildout accelerates they will increase their percentage of total power generation till they reach 100%. At that point they will indeed be powering the entire grid. The technology is working today and just needs to be scaled up.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Lol. Nothing trival about this.

You obviously have no clue how the grid works or what it takes to generate the amount of MW required.

You will see it happen over the next decade. The grid is going to be quite different from today’s, but it’s going to work just fine.

 

[RickLightning]

It’s really simple: solar and wind are already putting out a lot of energy today. Since they’re a lot cheaper than fossil fuels, they are being built out quickly while fossil plants are being retired. As this buildout accelerates they will increase their percentage of total power generation till they reach 100%. At that point they will indeed be powering the entire grid. The technology is working today and just needs to be scaled up.

You need to read Bill Gates' book. Solar and wind cannot do it all, by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Mtnman1]

It’s really simple: solar and wind are already putting out a lot of energy today. Since they’re a lot cheaper than fossil fuels, they are being built out quickly while fossil plants are being retired. As this buildout accelerates they will increase their percentage of total power generation till they reach 100%. At that point they will indeed be powering the entire grid. The technology is working today and just needs to be scaled up.

The grid cannot be run 100% on solar and wind. This is not possible without some major innovtions.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

You need to read Bill Gates' book. Solar and wind cannot do it all, by any stretch of the imagination.

I wish Bill all the luck in the world, let the man chase his nuclear and hydrogen fantasies. He’s got the spare change to do it, and maybe some good will-belatedly- come from it. Meanwhile, in the real world, the ever accelerating switch towards 100%renewables is well under way.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

The grid cannot be run 100% on solar and wind. This is not possible without some major innovtions.

You’re the engineer, please innovate! Or tell us what’s missing. I think all the pieces of the puzzle are on the table, today, and 10-20 years should be plenty of time to scale, make everything mesh, and get everyone on board. Yes!

 

[Mtnman1]

You’re the engineer, please innovate! Or tell us what’s missing. I think all the pieces of the puzzle are on the table, today, and 10-20 years should be plenty of time to scale, make everything mesh, and get everyone on board. Yes!

Lol. Wish i could.

The research scientists are the ones that will solve the issues. I only implement what science provides..

We will get there at some point. Just not in my lifetime.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Lol. Wish i could.

The research scientists are the ones that will solve the issues. I only implement what science provides..

We will get there at some point. Just not in my lifetime.

Agreed on the research-to - product process you’ve laid out. However, you still haven’t stated what the major issues are that these future innovations would solve. You’ve stated repeatedly that going all renewable won’t work, but you can’t give any specifics as to why you think that. You only give irrelevant examples that really don’t bolster your thesis. I think at this point it’s safe to say that you’re simply incorrect, sorry.

 

[Mtnman1]

Agreed on the research-to - product process you’ve laid out. However, you still haven’t stated what the major issues are that these future innovations would solve. You’ve stated repeatedly that going all renewable won’t work, but you can’t give any specifics as to why you think that. You only give irrelevant examples that really don’t bolster your thesis. I think at this point it’s safe to say that you’re simply incorrect, sorry.

There are a lot of factors. One is
Solar and wind do not generate, or more accurattly capture, power all the time. Solar is not productive at night. The wind is not always blowing. How do you have gird power at night with no wind? You dont. You need to store that energy for use at night. During calm days. There is no solution for this. Do you think batteries can suppply enough power to Ford's second and third shift assembly plant? What about an entire cities worth of demand with numerous production facilities?

The grid is also not a static demand. This fluctuats every hour of every day. What happens when demand increases? Turn on more sunlight? Make more wind?

Power storage is no where near where it needs to be. Not even close.

And wind? You know it would take 750 to 1,200 1 mw wind turbines to replace a single coal power plant? Where ya gonna put them? What are you going to do with the 75-100 foot blades after you replace them in 20yrs? Cant reuse them. Cant recycle them. Cant burn them. That is a rather large issue quickly.

There are books written on the subject. You shoud read some. The one mentioned in this thread is a good start.

I am not wrong just because i am not going to write 750 pages of a technical document.

Power companies are not investing 100's of millions of dollars building new natural gas power generating plants this year and spending 10's of millions upgrading coal plants if in 5-10 years they will be closed. No CEO is approving that project. They are doing it because they have more than 25 years to recoup costs and there is no other choice. Renewalables at this point in time are suplememts to the grid. That is it.

Facts are facts.

 

[Mtnman1]

OMG!!!!!!!! You are right and we are all screwed since we will NEVER be able to overcome these problems. Let's all lobby to shut down all attempts to foolishly upgrade the grid, continue to explore new ways of doing things, or destroy it with EVs!!!!!!!!!

Maybe read all the threads? Or work on comprehension?

No one is saying we wont get there eventuallly. The tech does not exist today. That is fact. Probably wont exist in 10 or 20 yrs.

And the talk about a grid powered 100% by wind and sun is foolish without some major breakthroughs.

Been workin on batteries for what 75 years? Havent gotten very far.

Folks will start caring more about batteries when they have to spend 20k to replace their ev batteries.

 

[Mtnman1]

Maybe talk to some research engineers in the grid fields before you make broad statements like 'not in my lifetime'? Or listen to people actually researching ESS (Energy Storage Systems)?

I talk to them all the time. I read the company papers and research articles on the subject every day. Becaue you know, its my job

 

[RickLightning]

I wish Bill all the luck in the world, let the man chase his nuclear and hydrogen fantasies. He’s got the spare change to do it, and maybe some good will-belatedly- come from it. Meanwhile, in the real world, the ever accelerating switch towards 100%renewables is well under way.

As he makes clear in the book, it can't happen. Solar and wind cannot solve the problem by themselves. Wind doesn't always blow, sun doesn't always shine. Not enough affordable batteries that can store city-sized amounts of energy. In the book, he has a great comparison of the kW generated per square foot, and the comparison between different technologies and how much land would be used.

And, of course, the impact on the environment and getting to net zero, if that's even a possibility.

Yes, we need more solar and wind, but that's only part of the answer.

You don't have to agree with his conclusions, but the book summarizes many of the key issues quite nicely.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

As he makes clear in the book, it can't happen. Solar and wind cannot solve the problem by themselves. Wind doesn't always blow, sun doesn't always shine. Not enough affordable batteries that can store city-sized amounts of energy. In the book, he has a great comparison of the kW generated per square foot, and the comparison between different technologies and how much land would be used.

And, of course, the impact on the environment and getting to net zero, if that's even a possibility.

Yes, we need more solar and wind, but that's only part of the answer.

You don't have to agree with his conclusions, but the book summarizes many of the key issues quite nicely.

Agreed that intermittency is an issue with renewables. But it’s already solved with existing technology: very soon everyone will have a 100 kWh battery aka EV in the driveway, but only use 20ish of those kWh most days. Add bidirectional charging like in the Lightning, and we can start using this storage capacity as a “distributed utility”. Yes, somebody has to put up matching charge points in workplace parking lots, and write the software to make it all work. Trivial over 10plus years. I wish Bill Gates knew someone in the software engineering field to get this ball rolling and make a bundle of $$$! Actually pretty surprised that somebody that has really changed our world by thinking outside of the box is so set on the status quo and wastes our time by dwelling on why it won’t work, instead of finding a way to make it work. Old age will do that to most of us I guess.

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