Lease vs Purchase?

[K6CCC]

Looking for opinions here. I expect to be shopping for a Lightning Flash in the next couple weeks. I'm looking for opinions on 1) getting a lease, 2) outright purchase (likely financed via Ford since even my Credit Union can't beat the current Ford rate), or 3) lease with the plan to buy it at the end of the lease.
A little about me, I generally keep vehicles until they die (or very close to that). My last two trucks have both been driven for just under 300K miles in 18 years and 21 years respectively. My current truck (2003 Dodge RAM 2500 4x4) is running poorly that will take major work to fix in order to pass a smog test that will be required next May. Not worth putting major work into that old of a truck, so May is my absolute end of life for it. However keeping an eye out for end of the year deals on a Lightning. I'm 65 and retiring in the 2nd half of next year.
The primary reason for the question is changing technology. Although I have always purchased in the past, opinions on value of going with a lease because of potential improvements in Ford's ability to build / support an electric truck. Would it make sense to lease with the expectation that in a few years, the Lightning will have improved enough for it to make sense to move to a 2028 (give or take) at the end of a lease?

Sponsored

 

[MotoGary]

I'm about your same age and have always followed conventional wisdom and bought my vehicles instead of leasing. My personal rule was to always buy vehicles with high projected resale value (Toyota Tacomas, 4Runners, Honda Civics, etc.) That has always worked out well for me. I unintentionally broke my rule when I got caught up in the EV hype and bought a Mach-E (cash) in 2021. We all know how that worked out for resale value

I decided my best exit strategy on the Mach-E was to take the hit and trade it when I saw the deals they were making on Lightnings plus 0% financing. I'm now driving my new Lightning for about $250/month (And loving the Lightning way more than the Mach-E!)

The lease vs buy question is always a tough one and every individual situation is different. But knowing what I know now, if I were in the market for a new EV---I'd most likely lease it.

 

[tunafied]

... and bought a Mach-E (cash) in 2021. We all know how that worked out for resale value

I decided my best exit strategy on the Mach-E was to take the hit and trade it ...

The lease vs buy question is always a tough one and every individual situation is different. But knowing what I know now, if I were in the market for a new EV---I'd most likely lease it.

Gary is right. The situation is really specific to the person/family. But I'll throw my 2 cents in. We got started with the Mach-e as a need for a car at the wrong time (COVID) and finally settled on a 21 Mach-e Select Standard Battery that we got for sticker when most dealers were marking cars up over sticker. Ford had the Options loan (Balloon) that was structured like a lease but in your name and FMC as lienholder. This way we could claim the $7,500 credit and turn it in after 3 years if we so chose and payment were lease like. That no longer exists.

I will caveat the following paragraph with that normally a lease is more expensive than buying but there are special/rare instance where you may luck out.

The only way we could get into a Lightning was to lease without have a 2nd mortgage payment. So the challenge is picking a time when FMC has enough incentives on the lease side and inventory that dealers need to move to get you the best pricing. Being a member in a partner club or employer will also get you some extra rebate dollars potentially. Combining these items will hopefully get the cap reduction to make sense to lease and potentially buy out or refinance later during the lease when your situation may be more favorable. Or you just turn it in at the end of 3 years and get into the vehicle that makes sense at that time.

I was able to make a profit on the sale of our Mach-e (recently and need to change my profile hopefully with the Lightning that I have not taken full delivery on yet....another thread in this forum) by using a company called Keysavvy to act as an intermediary dealer and sold my 21 Select Standard range battery with 43k miles for $24,500 when all the dealers would only offer me $20,500 and the buyer got the used EV credit point of sale and paid $20,500. I owed like $21+k on the Options loan (Keysavvy paid that off too) so the proceeds became the DP on the new Lightning lease. So I'm net $0 OOP on a lease with a very reasonable monthly payment. I think Fords APR on lease right now is .88% (MF-.000036667) but that may vary by region. RV is 61% on a Flash with 12k/36mo. Again may vary by region.

If you decide on lease, find a dealer that does not mark up the APR and that is willing to work with you.

Good luck!

 

[invertedspear]

If leases were in your best interest, you wouldn't be allowed to do it. We saw them get blocked in 2022, when they started meaning dealers would have a huge stock of used cars with a huge drop in values.

I personally don't like the cost and rules that come with most leases, and have rarely seen situations where buying wasn't a better option. Leases only benefit you if there is a major price drop of the new models halfway through your lease. So those 2022 and early 2023 leasers probably are in a good spot, if they managed to get a lease around that block. I don't see Ford dropping prices significantly in the next couple years. And all the tariff talk is designed to prevent those price cuts.

IMO buy, never lease, unless you always need to have a new car/truck every few years.

 

[K6CCC]

Thank you all for the opinions. I appreciate the thoughts and your time to write them. As I said in the beginning, I have always purchased in the past. Realizing that EVs are pretty new - especially for Ford, I am wondering if 3 to 4 years from now if Ford will have enough of a better product to make it worthwhile to go with the lease now?

 

[broncoaz]

Lease vs buy depends on incentives and how the numbers work out. I’m planning on leasing a 2024 Flash this week because the numbers heavily favor it vs buying for me in MA. I’ve got X-plan, so I’m seeing $2800 off MSRP, $3500 in ford lease incentives, and another $6500 off in various incentives. In addition to that $10K there is a $7500 state rebate in MA for a total of $17,500 off. The remaining lease will cost about $12K for the three years and 36K miles, very inexpensive. As far as buying it out, Ford made all of their Lightning leases closed end sometime this fall, so there is no more buying them out. I’m not sure what their motivation was, but there may be a glut of inexpensive lease returns available in three years.

I like the lease option not only because the numbers are great for me, but also because I think the value will be terrible in late 2027. I’m guessing that the market will move at a very fast pace and these “early” EV trucks won’t be very desirable. I could be wrong, maybe the new stuff will get watered down and the 0-60 in 4 seconds will keep the Lightning in demand.

Sponsored