Upgraded EV tax credits are dead. Available Tax Credits for F150EV [WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[EaglesPDX]

EV tax credits are not going to be upgraded for F150EV.

Ford still qualifies for the full $7,500 2nd level tax credit. It is not a full tax credit, you must have the tax liability vs. straight credit so typically only available to those with earnings above $70k per year.

And Ford is set to lose it around Q2 in '22 just when F150EV starts shipping. F150 would still get $7,500 through Q3 and then $3,750 Q4 and $1,875 Q1 '23.

With 15,000 F150's in '21, the F150EV is going to largely be without EV tax credits.

$75k less $15k ($7,500 plus $500 plus $4500 plus $2,500 from OR) was the plan.
$75k less $2.5k is going to be the reality for me with a '23 delivery date even with a Day 1 reservation.

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[Viper GTS]

EV tax credits are not going to be upgraded for F150EV.

Ford still qualifies for the full $7,500 2nd level tax credit. It is not a full tax credit, you must have the tax liability vs. straight credit so typically only available to those with earnings above $70k per year.

And Ford is set to lose it around Q2 in '22 just when F150EV starts shipping. F150 would still get $7,500 through Q3 and then $3,750 Q4 and $1,875 Q1 '23.

With 15,000 F150's in '21, the F150EV is going to largely be without EV tax credits.

$75k less $15k ($7,500 plus $500 plus $4500 plus $2,500 from OR) was the plan.
$75k less $2.5k is going to be the reality for me with a '23 delivery date even with a Day 1 reservation.

I believe your phaseout is too aggressive.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/plug-i...igible-consumers-begins-phase-down-on-april-1

It's two quarters each for the half and quarter credits so, if Ford crosses 200k in Q2 2022:

Remainder of 22Q2 is full credit
22Q3 is full credit
22Q4 and 23Q1 are half credit ($3750)
23Q2 and 23Q3 are quarter credit ($1875)

 

[Erik]

Ford sold 150k EVs in the US through Q3 2021 and sells just under 8k per quarter. At the end of 2021, Ford will have sold less than 160k EVs in the US.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/irc-30d-plug-in-electric-drive-motor-vehicle-credit-quarterly-sales

Even though Ford wants to ramp up production, they may not reach 20k per quarter by the end of Q2 2022. They may even delay deliveries to July to get an extra quarter of credits.

We will probably get the full credit through Q4 2022, half credit through Q2 2023, and quarter credit through Q4 2023.

 

[EaglesPDX]

And do the credits really run out mid-year

Whenever the 200,000 EV is sold and then phases out over one year.

 

[EaglesPDX]

The key is likely going to be MachE production. Ford is talking about tripling planned production to 200,000 by 2023. With 60,000 in 2021, 120,000 in '22 would seem reasonable. That would put Ford over by Q2 '22 just when F150EV begins shipping.

Amid a push to become the largest producer of EVs by later in the decade, Ford plans to triple production of the Mustang Mach-E electric SUV by 2023. The automaker is now targeting annual production of over 200,000 units by that year, in response to customer demand, Ford CEO Jim Farley tweeted on Friday, with plans to start increasing production in 2022.

 

[Erik]

The key is likely going to be MachE production. Ford is talking about tripling planned production to 200,000 by 2023. With 60,000 in 2021, 120,000 in '22 would seem reasonable. That would put Ford over by Q2 '22 just when F150EV begins shipping.

Ford only sold 22,954 EV through Q3 2021. I don’t think they can produce and sell 37,044 EVs in Q4.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Ford only sold 22,954 EV through Q3 2021.

Ford has produced and sold 55,000 MachE. Most went to EU has planned to meet EU regs and prevent a huge fine for Ford. Should hit 60,000 in '21 total.

 

[Erik]

Ford has produced and sold 55,000 MachE. Most went to EU has planned to meet EU regs and prevent a huge fine for Ford. Should hit 60,000 in '21 total.

I meant to say Ford sold 22,954 EVs in the US through Q3 according to the IRS. Sales in the EU don’t count towards the 200,000 cap.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Sales in the EU don’t count towards the 200,000 cap.

Correct but US is Ford's prime market, unlike GM where China is main market, so Ford could make the increase in MachE production all go to US which pushes Ford to an earlier 200,000 EV total.

With US as main market, Ford wants to get and increase market share here the most so could see Ford putting emphasis on US sales.

 

[pstansel]

The rest of it is literally how bills work. Source=Schoolhouse Rock How a Bill Becomes a Law.

Full props for the SHR callout

 

[HDFatBoy]

Silly question, but would the tax credit apply for the powerboost motor (hybrid)?

 

[vandy1981]

Silly question, but would the tax credit apply for the powerboost motor (hybrid)?

No. It has to be a plug in or a full-electric. A plug in Powerboost seems like a no-brainer though.

Here's a full list of vehicles that qualify for the current credit: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

This list doesn't include models that aren't on sale yet (e.g. the Lightning).

 

[sotek2345]

No. It has to be a plug in or a full-electric. A plug in Powerboost seems like a no-brainer though.

Here's a full list of vehicles that qualify for the current credit: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

This list doesn't include models that aren't on sale yet (e.g. the Lightning).

Would love a plug in powerboost F150 and would have to really weigh that against the Lightning, assuming it had enough electric only range.

 

[HDFatBoy]

No. It has to be a plug in or a full-electric. A plug in Powerboost seems like a no-brainer though.

Here's a full list of vehicles that qualify for the current credit: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

This list doesn't include models that aren't on sale yet (e.g. the Lightning).

That's unfortunate, obviously the option was a personal choice based on gas savings which thanks to the current administration is paying dividends. Thanks for the quick response.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Agreed on all OP points, except phase-out assumption may be aggressive - might have one or two more quarters depending on how fast the Mach-E gets ramped - but pretty much as I have thought we would see it play.

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