Way Too Late to the Party - How long until I can get a Lightning?

[GatorArchitect]

Hey everyone. Just found this site when doing some research. After reading up some I know I am WAY LATE to the party. I am interested in getting a Lightning when I can, but without having put an order in yet, how far out do you think I am going to have to wait to get one? Is MY2023 a pipe dream or could I still try to get an order in next month when they open up? Is 2024 even viable?

Thanks. Lots of great info on this site.

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[sotek2345]

Well - how much are you willing to pay? I would say to get an order in ASAP when they open them back up - that could be a 2023 (if you are very lucky) or a 2024. You could also get an abandoned order or demo unit if you are willing to pay a hefty ADM.

 

[metroshot]

Never too late for the party.

I'd speculate that you have a good chance at getting an order in for late MY'23 as Ford is ramping up production as well the conversion rate (reservation into order) being around 50-60%.

Many people who reserved over a year ago may have changes to their job, home, financials, recession/inflation, etc. So those that don't convert will turn into orders for those further down the line.

 

[p52Ranch]

Do you have a reservation for a Lightning? Ford stopped taking reservations when they hit 200,000 which if every reservation becomes an order would be well into 2024 production.
If you don't have a reservation, you aren't going to get an order invite for 2023 unless all of the existing reservations cancel or are fulfilled.
If you really want a Lightning be prepared to pay ADM on a dealer mannequin unit or an abandoned retail order unit.

 

[hturnerfamily]

I would say that trying wait to 'reserve', which itself may never even turn into the ability to 'order', is going to be a LONG LONG road... way more than most anyone is willing to wait. But, in light of the Chevy, the Ram, and even the Rivian and potentially the Cyber, we might be seeing more EV truck opportunities in the 'nearer' future(not that the word is 'near', but basically only a way of saying it nicely, that it's 'not' really near!)... but, also, there are other manufacturers that haven't even yet mentioned truck EVs, like the company that started it all - NISSAN. Why would they not yet be in the conversation?? How about Toyota?? No Honda. Jeep. Mitsubishi. or VW, yet either. Most have the potential to do anything they wish, even if it doesn't start here in America.
Will there be any 'Lightnings' for sale to the general public between now and then? Maybe, but it's going to be a rough time for anyone with wishful thinking that they are in any way going to pay anything CLOSE to MSRP. Ordering a new truck is the ONLY way to get one at that price.

 

[Texas Dan]

AutoTrader actually has over 600 electric F150 Lightnings listed. If you call a few listed dealers, you might be able to find one sitting on the lot that's not marked up too much. If my financial situation didn't make it more advantageous to wait on my reservation, I would be trying to get a F150L off a dealership lot. You might have to ship the F150L from wherever it's sitting or have to fly out to pick it up, but you still might be able to save thousands off of one located locally.

 

[GatorArchitect]

Ok. Thanks. That's what I figured. I do not have a reservation in. I didn't even really start thinking about trading in my vehicle for something new until about a month ago. I saw the Lightning and thought it would be great, but it looks like it will be a while unless I am willing to pay extra. I've got a friend who's daughter works for Ford corporate in Dearborn and she said that even her friends at work that have ordered it are having issues getting them.

I wanted a truck for my next vehicle, but may need to go another way for a few years until there are more options or they are easier to get. With my commute, I either need better gas mileage or an EV. We have free chargers at my office which is what made the Lightning extra enticing.

 

[FordLightningMan]

AutoTrader actually has over 600 electric F150 Lightnings listed. If you call a few listed dealers, you might be able to find one sitting on the lot that's not marked up too much. If my financial situation didn't make it more advantageous to wait on my reservation, I would be trying to get a F150L off a dealership lot. You might have to ship the F150L from wherever it's sitting or have to fly out to pick it up, but you still might be able to save thousands off of one located locally.

As much as I hate ADM, $10,000 ADM on a vehicle this year is the same price you'll pay for a late MY23 or MY24 Lightning. That assumes the $7,500 tax rebate goes away and the truck price goes up $3k+ with the new model years. Dealers know this of course, which is why many are putting $20k+ ADM on the trucks on their lots. If I had no reservation and didn't care much for Android Automotive, I'd be shopping lots for anything in the $10k ADM range now. The only way this comes back to bite you is if a new EV tax rebate is passed.

 

[GatorArchitect]

As much as I hate ADM, $10,000 ADM on a vehicle this year is the same price you'll pay for a late MY23 or MY24 Lightning. That assumes the $7,500 tax rebate goes away and the truck price goes up $3k+ with the new model years. Dealers know this of course, which is why many are putting $20k+ ADM on the trucks on their lots. If I had no reservation and didn't care much for Android Automotive, I'd be shopping lots for anything in the $10k ADM range now. The only way this comes back to bite you is if a new EV tax rebate is passed.

I saw something about the Android Automotive and wasn't sure how soon that would make it in to the Lightning. I'm actually very interested in that. I use Android Auto every time I drive. I bought my Hyundai Sonata in 2015 because it was the only vehicle available with it. So, having it built into the car where I could potentially use google maps with EV charging routing would be great.

 

[PV2EV]

I saw something about the Android Automotive and wasn't sure how soon that would make it in to the Lightning. I'm actually very interested in that. I use Android Auto every time I drive. I bought my Hyundai Sonata in 2015 because it was the only vehicle available with it. So, having it built into the car where I could potentially use google maps with EV charging routing would be great.

Good news is regardless of how late it is, you will get Android Automotive in your Lightning. You may get a shot at a MY24, but more likely, a MY25, which is when they plan to heavily revise the model.

 

[YankeeCP]

As much as I hate ADM, $10,000 ADM on a vehicle this year is the same price you'll pay for a late MY23 or MY24 Lightning. That assumes the $7,500 tax rebate goes away and the truck price goes up $3k+ with the new model years. Dealers know this of course, which is why many are putting $20k+ ADM on the trucks on their lots. If I had no reservation and didn't care much for Android Automotive, I'd be shopping lots for anything in the $10k ADM range now. The only way this comes back to bite you is if a new EV tax rebate is passed.

AutoTrader actually has over 600 electric F150 Lightnings listed. If you call a few listed dealers, you might be able to find one sitting on the lot that's not marked up too much. If my financial situation didn't make it more advantageous to wait on my reservation, I would be trying to get a F150L off a dealership lot. You might have to ship the F150L from wherever it's sitting or have to fly out to pick it up, but you still might be able to save thousands off of one located locally.

I’d pay $10k ADM right now and then just flip my order when I eventually get a chance.

 

[Roy2001]

IMO the best way is to contact dealer and show your interest and willing to pay $10k over MSRP.

You will get $7500 back, and pay $2500 to get it earlier.

 

[lakeguy55]

Never too late for the party.

I'd speculate that you have a good chance at getting an order in for late MY'23 as Ford is ramping up production as well the conversion rate (reservation into order) being around 50-60%.

Many people who reserved over a year ago may have changes to their job, home, financials, recession/inflation, etc. So those that don't convert will turn into orders for those further down the line.

Where did you get the 50-60% conversion rate? I saw a study posted on a Lightning FB page this AM that shows it as above 90% (sorry, can't find it again right now)

 

[metroshot]

Where did you get the 50-60% conversion rate? I saw a study posted on a Lightning FB page this AM that shows it as above 90% (sorry, can't find it again right now)

FB is never very truthful since it's filled with a lot of rumors and guesses - I know I am a FB moderator on a FB Lightning page...

There was a report on past Ford ordering conversions - Bronco, Maverick, Mustang Mach E and most were UNDER 50% conversion rate.

Might seem like a lot of demand for the Lightning but based on reality - many people will not convert when invited especially the ones who reserved in May 2021 where lots of changes have occurred in their lives, deaths, finances, jobs, investments, economy, etc...

 

[lakeguy55]

Found it. This is the study I referenced. No connection or idea of how valid the numbers are. But given the insane prices people seem to be getting on resales, I'd have to believe it's more than 50%, even if just flipped right away.

https://www.recurrentauto.com/resea...jRw-NjemaHY69JnS2q8VG6abIMkN8MVZHH91qfkeZG5ho

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