What are the chances: Ford shoots national F-150 Lightning commercial in neighbor’s driveway

[SteffanG]

They probably need all the advertising now as they are realizing with the price increase and no tax credit people are canceling in mass.

Sponsored

 

[cvalue13]

They probably need all the advertising now as they are realizing with the price increase and no tax credit people are canceling in mass.

any evidence of this? (Other than anecdotally hearing a few folks in forum belly-ache and threaten to not buy?)

Absent some broader global economic calamity, ford will sell every single unit it can produce between now and 2025 (when the new BEV is released), and there will still be a waiting line and a premium on secondary market

also, as for the tax credits, people seem to forget that those were going to be 1/2 gone by June and completely gone by the end of 2023 - so with the new law, from the perspective of Ford’s alternate futures, Ford has only gained tax credits for the next 10 years.

I’m sure there are some people whose budget were riding such a razor’s edge that the price increases put them out of buying the exact truck they wanted (or altogether), but for every one of them there are >2 people willing to take their spot.

from that perspective, Ford’s not advertising to sell Lightning units, they’re advertising to build brand awareness and cache on the back of the Lightning

 

[Regular150]

At that pitch I am surprised! Must be a really piss poor install, very thin gauge.

Salesman, "You want 24, 26, 28, 32 gauge?". Customer, "Well higher numbers are always better, so I'll splurge, let's go with 40 or as high as you have!"

Salesman, "Well, that high is definitely to be expensive, but I'll fix you up!

 

[McQueen]

They were also filming at a downtown charging location (electric Ave) on Sunday. I snuck in just before they shut down the street with access to the chargers, but watched them turn away several other vehicles looking for a fast charger. I was charged up and left before the crew showed up.

 

[ivan256]

any evidence of this? (Other than anecdotally hearing a few folks in forum belly-ache and threaten to not buy?)

Absent some broader global economic calamity, ford will sell every single unit it can produce between now and 2025 (when the new BEV is released), and there will still be a waiting line and a premium on secondary market

Ford is planning to make at least 400,000 of these trucks.

Tesla has sold ~170,000 Model Ss in the US since 2012.

I’m sure there are some people whose budget were riding such a razor’s edge that the price increases put them out of buying the exact truck they wanted (or altogether), but for every one of them there are >2 people willing to take their spot.

The majority of dropouts will be people who could afford the payments on a $40k truck, who might be able to stretch to a $50k truck with a longer loan at 1.9%. Not people who were planning on a $75k truck and are now priced out by an increase to $82k. These people are now holding a reservation for an $80k+ truck with 8-9% financing rates. The price increase isn't relevant because they couldn't afford a Lariat at 2023 interest rates to begin with.

If production ramps to 150k/year, and doesn't shift from Lariats towards Pros and XLTs, Ford will run out of MSRP customers for Lightnings sometime in the 2024 model year. If the Fed does what they say they're going to do, they're going to run out of customers willing to pay a markup sooner than that.

(All this goes out the window if supply shortages cut production in half.)

 

[cvalue13]

Ford will run out of MSRP customers for Lightnings sometime in the 2024

which should be just as the 2025 all new BEV truck is introduced

Sure, if the global economy tanks materially we’re all f*cked and should care less what happens to Ford/Lightning

But otherwise more generally I don’t “buy” that Ford is going to produce enough of these to saturate the market before introducing the Lightning’s replacement in 2025. If anything, they’ll throttle production down to avoid that outcome.

 

[ivan256]

which should be just as the 2025 all new BEV truck is introduced

Sure, if the global economy tanks materially we’re all f*cked and should care less what happens to Ford/Lightning

But otherwise more generally I don’t “buy” that Ford is going to produce enough of these to saturate the market before introducing the Lightning’s replacement in 2025. If anything, they’ll throttle production down to avoid that outcome.

I completely agree with all of this. But it's distinctly different from being able to "sell every single unit it can produce between now and 2025."

They'll certainly stop making trucks before they start selling them at a loss. I don't think it'll come to that though. They will still sell them all, but at MSRP, they'll have to have some financing promotions, and they'll sit on the lot for 12-14 days instead of 8.

Anyway, I guess my point was that it's reasonable to have an ad to sell them to people without reservations. Plus it builds the brand.

 

[cvalue13]

Anyway, I guess my point was that it's reasonable to have an ad to sell them to people without reservations. Plus it builds the brand.

could also be that it’s for national promotional materials

like the scrolling materials here:https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning-electric-truck/

 

[cvalue13]

"sell every single unit it can produce between now and 2025."

I personally still think that’s true - but the difference may only be our respective views on how many Ford intends to produce

Sponsored