F-150 Lightning EV Tax Credits & Rebates - Discussions & Predictions

[Brian Head Yankee]

Senate will change it. IF it passes in the Senate, then it goes back to the House for another vote. February at the earliest.

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[F150ROD]

Senate will change it. IF it passes in the Senate, then it goes back to the House for another vote. February at the earliest.

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[techguydave]

It's starting to feel like Tesla with all of these delays, although I'm still certain that I'll be driving a Lightning before anyone gets a CT, even if I wait until 2025.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Passed the House on to the Senate

Now for the real fight.

 

[F150ROD]

It's starting to feel like Tesla with all of these delays, although I'm still certain that I'll be driving a Lightning before anyone gets a CT, even if I wait until 2025.

I dont think they really anticipated so many people switching to EV's with the Mach-E and Lightning. But they really should have seen this coming for the last decades. Gas Prices have been going through the roof over since the 2000's.

I think we won't see them running like a well oiled machine until the end of 2022

 

[ChasingCoral]

Senate will change it. IF it passes in the Senate, then it goes back to the House for another vote. February at the earliest.

A second House vote is not necessary for budget bills. Differences between House and Budget versions of passed budget bills are usually worked out in the Budget Conference Committee.

 

[Losi]

Senate will change it. IF it passes in the Senate, then it goes back to the House for another vote. February at the earliest.

 

[astricklin]

It's starting to feel like Tesla with all of these delays, although I'm still certain that I'll be driving a Lightning before anyone gets a CT, even if I wait until 2025.

There has not been any delays. Ford stated "fall 21" for ordering and "spring 22" for delivery. They have never announced anything else or any formal delay. Fall ends Dec 20 so they still have a month to go to not miss the order start.

 

[pstansel]

Is there a good summary of the current proposal somewhere?

 

[PungoteagueDave]

A second House vote is not necessary for budget bills. Differences between House and Budget versions of passed budget bills are usually worked out in the Budget Conference Committee.

Sorry, incorrect. After the conference committee resolves any differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill, each chamber must vote again to approve the final bill text. Once each chamber has approved the bill, the legislation is sent to the President. In this case the differences are likely too large to reconcile IMO, Manchin may just say the truth - without gimmicks, this is a $4.5 trillion boondoggle, with key elements in crazy-ville, and just kill the whole thing. There are five moderate Dem Senators at risk and hiding behind him, not just Sinema, all supporting his opposition, all at risk in next fall's election. Pelosi et al seem to not have gotten the memo earlier this month and are dead set on committing political suicide.

I still think that early Lightning reservation holders will see the existing $7,500 credit, and the Ford credits will expire in the third quarter next year, winding down to zero by year end, under the existing credit regime. And that'll be it for Fed EV credits with respect to Ford, my educated guess only. General Motors is already out of credits. Rivian, Jeep and other manufacturers will have a couple more years of credits to run for those in the truck market, albeit at higher base price points.

 

[Losi]

I’m guessing there’s not much in BBB to excite corporate profiteers, bankers, and wealthy business owners, among others, but for millions of working class Americans—of all political stripes— who work hard with not much to show for it, there’s quite a bit to like about the bill, especially after what has been an economically devastating couple years for many. In a winner-take-all, my side wins yours loses political environment, I’m rooting for a reasonable compromise that *hopefully* sees this EV credit issue resolved quickly.

 

[vandy1981]

Wholesale conjecture here, but I think the bill has a 25% chance of making it to Biden's desk.

The house left paid leave benefits and union-related EV incentives in the bill. These are easy targets for Manchin--he can insist that they're cut from the reconciliation bill and show his budgetary hawkishness allowing him to save face.

 

[EaglesPDX]

"BofA Global Research analyst John Murphy described the infrastructure package as “only modestly supportive” of the auto industry’s move toward EVs. He said the $12,500 in tax credits to buy an EV is more crucial to increase adoption."

Here's the breakdown.

Best part is the base $7,500 would become fully refundable not just on taxes owed so it will work for everyone not just those earning $68k and over (35% of US).

Nice if the $7.500 had been adjusted for inflation which would make it $10k.

With the other $4,500 based on US mfg and living wage/benefit labor liable to be opposed, perhaps the opponents could be talked into upping the base to $15k fully refundable tax credit and leave it at that. Simple and adjusts for inflation.

Applied to F150EV at $76k that would be $15k Feds vs. $13,500.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Wholesale conjecture here, but I think the bill has a 25% chance of making it to Biden's desk.

The house left paid leave benefits and union-related EV incentives in the bill. These are easy targets for Manchin--he can insist that they're cut from the reconciliation bill and show his budgetary hawkishness allowing him to save face.

Exactly. Always gotta leave some room for negotiating so you can still get what you really want in the end. And, IMHO, the EV credit is one of the less important pieces of BBB for our society overall. A “nice to have “.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Sorry, incorrect. After the conference committee resolves any differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill, each chamber must vote again to approve the final bill text. Once each chamber has approved the bill, the legislation is sent to the President. In this case the differences are likely too large to reconcile IMO, Manchin may just say the truth - without gimmicks, this is a $4.5 trillion boondoggle, with key elements in crazy-ville, and just kill the whole thing. There are five moderate Dem Senators at risk and hiding behind him, not just Sinema, all supporting his opposition, all at risk in next fall's election. Pelosi et al seem to not have gotten the memo earlier this month and are dead set on committing political suicide.

I still think that early Lightning reservation holders will see the existing $7,500 credit, and the Ford credits will expire in the third quarter next year, winding down to zero by year end, under the existing credit regime. And that'll be it for Fed EV credits with respect to Ford, my educated guess only. General Motors is already out of credits. Rivian, Jeep and other manufacturers will have a couple more years of credits to run for those in the truck market, albeit at higher base price points.

Appreciate your concern re Dem election prospects, but let’s not forget that everything that’s in BBB is the exact stuff that Biden/Dems ran on last year. And won by a landslide, so I’m not too sure about this political suicide thing. We’ll see soon enough.

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