Does it look completely dead in the water, or will we at least get the point-of-sale part passed?
There's no a la carte here. BBB is a package. The old EV credit is a personal tax return thing, not point of sale, as you know. That's what will survive - the default option, with the $7,500 depending on you having $7,500 of tax liability and Ford having not run through their 200k limit on credits. Perhaps there's a remote possibility for a standalone bill that does point of sale or even an enhanced credit with fewer or no limits, but I would not hold my breath in an election year that is swinging hard against the Dems, who look to lose both the House and Senate, perhaps in a big way - even the NYT sees this coming.
The report that's being referenced assumes some of the provisions of the BBB bill would continue through 2031 without offsets, even though the bill isn't written that way.
Not so much a "tactic" as an attempt at reality. What the House did here was to craft a bill with a lot of provisions that had new entitlement like free child care that were super-expensive, so they put sunsets on them of only one or two years, so the bill would price out cheap and they could sell it as such - knowing full well that once constituents got addicted to the new freebies, they would get extended. So Machin and others have correctly asked for the bill to be re-priced in the real world - with the assumption that even though the bill is not written that way - what IF all of these new programs are extended (because we KNOW that is the intent of the writers all along), what is the REAL cost, without all the chicanery and trickery designed into the bill. So the "clever tactic" as you refer to it is really an attempt to remove the bill's clever tactic of obscuring the true cost of the legislation - and price it at it's ACTUAL cost so that the American people and fellow legislators can see it for what it really is. As an economist, I prefer reality to fantasy. The BBB bill as passed was the fantasy, the latest CBO pricing is much closer to reality.
This is a very thoughtful, informed, measured post about the demise of BBB. It might very well happen just as you predict (although I hope universal pre-k, lower prescription drug costs and paid family leave make it in some form or fashion, at some point). You’re good at articulating what you’re against. I’m curious to know what you stand FOR that would help low and middle income Americans that will be completely funded since we’re suddenly concerned about fiscal responsibility. I’m no economist and would benefit from a lecture, I guess lol. Other than uniformly obstructing an investigation and doling out big tax breaks, I don’t see many ideas or even a coherent platform coming from conservatives.
Actually the bill is overall popular and individual provisions in the bill enjoy very high popularity.
And that’s straight from the Manchin/Sinema playbook. Always concerned and against, never saying what could work. As a matter of fact, the only reason the sunsets were added was because Manchin complained about the original $3T price tag and wanted it reduced to 1.5T. Time to put the sucker up for a vote, put up or shut up, the country will be ok if it doesn’t pass. And it’ll be better if it does.
