Poll: 2023 Lightning - Still Ordering?

[Bill from King Ranch]

Given the new Build and Price for 2023 models with increased prices and the pending tax credit law changes are you reconsidering your interest in buying a Lightning? Given the $80K threshold, I think that more granularity in the build options would have been nice.

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[FlasherZ]

Given the new Build and Price for 2023 models with increased prices and the pending tax credit law changes are you reconsidering your interest in buying a Lightning? Given the $80K threshold, I think that more granularity in the build options would have been nice.

We still don't know what the qualifiers are for the manufacturing/content rules (due by end of year) even if you qualify under income limits and MSRP limits... Without going into the specific political issues, it's going to look very bad if there are basically no qualifying vehicles for the full $7,500 and so they'll either stretch and water down the requirements in rules from the Sec'y of Transportation, or Congress will try to tack on a "fix" in some must-pass bill that will suspend those requirements for a while longer.

What that means? I think everyone needs to assume no rebates. Most states won't have rebates, the states that do may/will run out of money by the time you get your truck. And for most people around me, I can't recommend an SR battery because we have a lot of highway driving, we will have winter, and there will be crazy range surprises for people - and ER means no credit due to the $80k limit.

I think fuel savings is where you're going to have to demonstrate the value of the Lightning. Where I live, it's $0.096 per kWh for electricity, and $4.25 for gas. Predictions are that supplies are tightening and we're expected to exit the year at about $4.35 average in the US. 100,000 miles with 85% charging efficiency is about $5k fuel cost for Lightning; with the Powerboost it's about $18K and with the 5.0 it's about $23K. The comparable F-150 to my Lariat Lightning was upper $69k for an $11K cost difference (although you can argue that the gas F-150 allows you to customize the truck and drop a bunch of the stuff you wouldn't normally use, whereas Lightning has less packaging options).

I agree with you about build option granularity. It will be interesting to see how much of the reduced granularity is due to the manufacturing limitations on a brand new product, and how much of it is part of a general strategy to reduce complexity of manufacturing through forcing less options for users.

 

[KevinC]

I Think this is going to push more people down a level of trim if they are staying in. The question then becomes will they allocate enough PRO's to get past the first wave or 2. I do think this pricing/incentive dynamic significantly increases the possibility that non-reservation holders will be placing the last orders in the 2023MY for Lariats.

 

[Pioneer74]

My Lariat ER will be built at the end of the month. If I was faced with these prices, I would either do a Lariat SR order with BlueCruise and Tow Tech or continue driving my 2021 ICE.

The price increase are tough to swallow. But with the inflation problem we have right now, they were expected.

 

[Lightning_Bob]

I can understand price increases due inflation - 10% up across the board for everything....fine...

This however, looks like a business taking advantage of the refreshed $7.5K tax credit/rebate and leaving nothing for the consumer - the trucks are coincidentally marked up $7-8K more expensive across the board instead of going up 10% for each trim...

From a short-medium term business perspective - this is a smart thing to do - will significantly thin out the reservations, and can sell to those without reservations who have deeper pockets for the Lariat/Platinum ER trims much sooner - some folks remember feeling wronged and carry grudges....that may come to haunt them later...but probably not a significant impact...

 

[Wantastic]

Given the new Build and Price for 2023 models with increased prices and the pending tax credit law changes are you reconsidering your interest in buying a Lightning? Given the $80K threshold, I think that more granularity in the build options would have been nice.

First, the fact that YouTube testers have demonstrated actual towing range of around 100 miles for the extended range F-150 Lightning battery was the deal killer for me. The tax credit elimination was the confirmation.

The Youtuber’s towed a travel trailer on a level highway and had to return to their starting point or risk battery range expiration on a highway in the middle of nowhere. 100 miles of towing range will never work for me.

 

[Pioneer74]

I can understand price increases due inflation - 10% up across the board for everything....fine...

This however, looks like a business taking advantage of the refreshed $7.5K tax credit/rebate and leaving nothing for the consumer - the trucks are coincidentally marked up $7-8K more expensive across the board instead of going up 10% for each trim...

How is Ford taking advantage of a tax credit if the vehicle doesn't qualify for it?​

​

Look at the inflation numbers for the materials used to build the battery. It's way more than 10%.​

 

[Lightning_Bob]

How is Ford taking advantage of a tax credit if the vehicle doesn't qualify for it?​

​

Look at the inflation numbers for the materials used to build the battery. It's way more than 10%.​

I'll guess we'll have to see how other EV manufacturers will adjust their pricing...

For those that will most likely not qualify for the updated tax credit/rebate (Hyundai, BMW, Vovlo, Tesla, etc) - would be intersting to see if their price jumps match the lightnings from 2022 to 2023....

 

[Pioneer74]

I'll guess we'll have to see how other EV manufacturers will adjust their pricing...

For those that will most likely not qualify for the updated tax credit/rebate (Hyundai, BMW, Vovlo, Tesla, etc) - would be intersting to see if their price jumps match the lightnings from 2022 to 2023....

Well, to put the price increase in perspective, the Mach-E ER was announced to have a $5000 price increase right before Ford closed the order bank for it. And it only has a 91kwh battery.

 

[Bippers]

I will probably be buying a used Lightning or another EV truck down the line then maybe in 5-7 years when they depreciate a bit. Real shame but it was fun to be hopeful for the cheap EV truck.

 

[Lightning_Bob]

Well, to put the price increase in perspective, the Mach-E ER was announced to have a $5000 price increase right before Ford closed the order bank for it. And it only has a 91kwh battery.

Yes, would like to see if this is a Ford issue or a Global issue...

Lithium price should be going down in 2024 https://www.fool.com.au/2022/05/05/what-will-the-lithium-price-be-in-2025/ -- this include mining China...probably is costly to spin up US/US Partners lithium mining/refining operations...so maybe the explaination of the Ford price jump?

During this time, it would be interesting to see if EVs with non US partner made batteries would be cheaper than EVs with US partner batteries with the $7500 credit/rebate....

 

[RickE]

We still don't know what the qualifiers are for the manufacturing/content rules (due by end of year) even if you qualify under income limits and MSRP limits... Without going into the specific political issues, it's going to look very bad if there are basically no qualifying vehicles for the full $7,500 and so they'll either stretch and water down the requirements in rules from the Sec'y of Transportation, or Congress will try to tack on a "fix" in some must-pass bill that will suspend those requirements for a while longer.

What that means? I think everyone needs to assume no rebates. Most states won't have rebates, the states that do may/will run out of money by the time you get your truck. And for most people around me, I can't recommend an SR battery because we have a lot of highway driving, we will have winter, and there will be crazy range surprises for people - and ER means no credit due to the $80k limit.

I think fuel savings is where you're going to have to demonstrate the value of the Lightning. Where I live, it's $0.096 per kWh for electricity, and $4.25 for gas. Predictions are that supplies are tightening and we're expected to exit the year at about $4.35 average in the US. 100,000 miles with 85% charging efficiency is about $5k fuel cost for Lightning; with the Powerboost it's about $18K and with the 5.0 it's about $23K. The comparable F-150 to my Lariat Lightning was upper $69k for an $11K cost difference (although you can argue that the gas F-150 allows you to customize the truck and drop a bunch of the stuff you wouldn't normally use, whereas Lightning has less packaging options).

I agree with you about build option granularity. It will be interesting to see how much of the reduced granularity is due to the manufacturing limitations on a brand new product, and how much of it is part of a general strategy to reduce complexity of manufacturing through forcing less options for users.

A total of $8,000 more than the same exact 2022 MY, $500 for the charger and it will not qualify for the $7,500 rebate since its over the $80,000 threshold. So a 2023 MY will cost you $16,000 more than the same exact 2022 MY Lightning. Now, even the 2023 ER XLT is over $80,000 too and will not qualify for the $7,500 rebate. This is going to price me and a lot of others out. The truck is very nice, but I can not justify paying over $85,000 for a truck with cloth seats. Ford prepare for a considerable amount of cancelations!

 

[RickE]

I will probably be buying a used Lightning or another EV truck down the line then maybe in 5-7 years when they depreciate a bit. Real shame but it was fun to be hopeful for the cheap EV truck.

Agreed!! I cannot justify paying over $85,000 for a truck with clothes seats!

 

[FlasherZ]

I was hoping Ford would release its 2023 F-150 pricing at the same time so I could do the same comparison that I did with Lightning vs. standard F-150 5.0 and F-150 Powerboost.

The F-150 5.0, equipped the same as the Lightning Lariat, came out to high $69k vs. $81k. We'll see what the gap looks like when 2023 F-150 pricing configurations become available.

 

[sotek2345]

My Lariat ER will be built at the end of the month. If I was faced with these prices, I would either do a Lariat SR order with BlueCruise and Tow Tech or continue driving my 2021 ICE.

The price increase are tough to swallow. But with the inflation problem we have right now, they were expected.

Yeah - mine is due to be built in early Sept.

If I was faced with these prices, I probably would have dropped to an XLT SR and just used it as a local truck (commuting and hauling duty). Keep using my wife's Mach-e for family vacation / road trip duty. Pro is just too bare bones for me.

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