Estimates on 2022 lightning resale value in 2 years?

[astricklin]

They are saying 150kw and 250kw doesnt make much a differece.

Who is saying this?
Look at the difference in charging speeds between an id.4 and an ioniq5. You can get the same amount of charge in the ioniq5 in 15 minutes that will take around 30 minutes in the id4.
Now there's a lot to factor in charging speeds along with how flat the charging curve is. The lightning has a fairly flat curve and so it does charge well, but it peaks at about 170kw. Average over a whole session is lower than that, but I'd have to look at more data again to say exactly where it usually settles. Peaking at 75-100 kw higher and averaging 20-50kw higher over the charge session can make a huge difference. Especially if you're able to drive stopping more often and charging for a shorter time as your average kw charge rate will be significantly higher with a 250-350 peak.

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[mr2urbo004]

That will depend on the charging curve and the system (400v vs. 800-900v). For 10- 80% charging it could be 20min vs 30 min difference. If you charge 15-60%, charge time could be reduced by 50%.

Another thing hurts the Lightning charging is the CCS which is unreliable and protocal could be miserable. With the reliable Tesla charging system and guaranteed 150-250kW speed, road trip would be fun with Lightning.

I recently had a road trip, and I stopped by Shasta city Tesla Super charging station. It is 150kW but its $0.33 price is lower than other area. It turns out 150kW is not noticeably slower than 250kW. The reason is Tesla is 400V, peak 250kW only last a few minutes. I charged from 20% to 85%, it is more like 28min vs. 32min.

Oh i see.

 

[mr2urbo004]

Who is saying this?
Look at the difference in charging speeds between an id.4 and an ioniq5. You can get the same amount of charge in the ioniq5 in 15 minutes that will take around 30 minutes in the id4.
Now there's a lot to factor in charging speeds along with how flat the charging curve is. The lightning has a fairly flat curve and so it does charge well, but it peaks at about 170kw. Average over a whole session is lower than that, but I'd have to look at more data again to say exactly where it usually settles. Peaking at 75-100 kw higher and averaging 20-50kw higher over the charge session can make a huge difference. Especially if you're able to drive stopping more often and charging for a shorter time as your average kw charge rate will be significantly higher with a 250-350 peak.

Read on some forum.

 

[astricklin]

Read on some forum.

Some forum isn't at all specific, but thanks.

I've watched a lot of charging videos by out of spec motoring, TFL, and inside EV/Tom Moloughny.
"Significantly different" is very subjective, however in my opinion, the difference in charging speed between a 400v architecture vehicle that peaks between 150-180kw and an 800v system that peaks typically around 300kw is significantly different enough that if the vehicle has the same battery size and roughly the same efficiency, you will get enough more miles per minute added to the vehicle that charges faster to make a difference, when using a dcfc station that will support 350kw charge rates.

 

[mr2urbo004]

Read on some forum.

Yes that makes sense. But i will be charging from home. I havent charge any of my EV away from home. 200miles plus is more than I even need to get back home.

 

[swajames]

So this clown has gone from agonizing about $350 per month (on a lease, no less) to claiming, when questions start getting asked about none of this really quite adding up, that he really is a baller because he considers (but notably never actually buys) various exotics to go along with the boat and multiple properties.

Yep. Must be true. I for one can't see any problems here.

 

[astricklin]

So this clown has gone from agonizing about $350 per month (on a lease, no less) to claiming, when questions start getting asked about none of this really quite adding up, that he really is a baller because he considers (but notably never actually buys) various exotics to go along with the boat and multiple properties.

Yep. Must be true. I for one can't see any problems here.

I feel like people who have a high enough net worth to be considering Ferrari and McLaren as vehicle purchases aren't coming to a truck forum to get financial advice.

 

[mr2urbo004]

I feel like people who have a high enough net worth to be considering Ferrari and McLaren as vehicle purchases aren't coming to a truck forum to get financial advice.

Not sure if most people buying the f150 for profit. I really dont see much thing wrong with the truck besides the tech. Range doesnt matter if you tow gas or ev it will cut the miles alot.

 

[rdr854]

I have always believed that a general production motor vehicle is a depreciating asset, and contrary to what many dealers say — not an investment. The question is how much. Unfortunately, with a new model such as the Lightning, who knows (especially since it looks like this generation may be relatively short, both on platform and powertrain).

 

[mr2urbo004]

I have always believed that a general production motor vehicle is a depreciating asset, and contrary to what many dealer say — not an investment. The question is how much. Unfortunately, with a new model such as the Lightning, who knows (especially since it looks like this generation may be relatively short, both on platform and powertrain).

Yes it is. I guess the cheapest model will lose the least amount of value since it is a truck. I really don't see how any of the other manufacture can sell the truck for $40k now. Min. rages keep going up so everything will go up in price.

 

[vandy1981]

I have always believed that a general production motor vehicle is a depreciating asset, and contrary to what many dealer say — not an investment.

People have recalibrated their resale value expectations based on the craziness that happened in 2021-2022.

A lot of people who paid those huge markups are going to have a rude awakening when they realize how little they're going to get for trade-in.

 

[mr2urbo004]

People have recalibrated their resale value expectations based on the craziness that happened in 2021-2022.

A lot of people who paid those huge markups are going to have a rude awakening when they realize how little they're going to get for trade-in.

That is crazy that people paid the markup price. Really dosesnt make any sense. They could had brought a nice Porsche EV and a regular truck. Unless you own your own business and need the write off thats fine I guess.

 

[rdr854]

That is crazy that people paid the markup price. Really dosesnt make any sense. They could had brought a nice Porsche EV and a regular truck. Unless you own your own business and need the write off thats fine I guess.

I am really not surprised. When I was looking at a 21 Suburban at the beginning of the model year, the local Chevrolet dealer "demanded" a $15K ADM on all of his base Suburbans and would not negotiate. Unfortunately, the problem was a lack of supply relative to pre-pandemic levels (meaning that there was still a decent supply of vehicles on the ground, but not to the over-stuffed pre-pandemic levels).

At the time I purchased my 22 Lightning, I paid MSRP. But, that said, I also received what I paid for my 19 Suburban when I sold it. As a result, the delta between the two vehicles was basically the same as if this had been a pre-pandemic transaction where the new vehicle was discounted and the trade actually depreciated after three years and 23K miles. At the end of the day, I think that one has to look at the whole transaction, not just a single component.

 

[mr2urbo004]

I am really not surprised. When I was looking at a 21 Suburban at the beginning of the model year, the local Chevrolet dealer "demanded" a $15K ADM on all of his base Suburbans and would not negotiate. Unfortunately, the problem was a lack of supply relative to pre-pandemic levels (meaning that there was still a decent supply of vehicles on the ground, but not to the over-stuffed pre-pandemic levels).

At the time I purchased my 22 Lightning, I paid MSRP. But, that said, I also received what I paid for my 19 Suburban when I sold it. As a result, the delta between the two vehicles was basically the same as if this had been a pre-pandemic transaction where the new vehicle was discounted and the trade actually depreciated after three years and 23K miles. At the end of the day, I think that one has to look at the whole transaction, not just a single component.

Yeah. I got screw with my 2022 Tesla model 3. Tesla is selling it so cheap that i am going to sell it to Carmax for $34k today. Better than keeping a car that will really worth nothing in 1 more year and that everyone has one now. If Tesla is refreshing the model next year model 3 will really have no value.

 

[astricklin]

Yeah. I got screw with my 2022 Tesla model 3. Tesla is selling it so cheap that i am going to sell it to Carmax for $34k today. Better than keeping a car that will really worth nothing in 1 more year and that everyone has one now. If Tesla is refreshing the model next year model 3 will really have no value.

If used Tesla prices really do tank, maybe I'll pick one up instead of my lightning. I've seen a few already under 25k, so then you'll get another$4k tax credit.

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