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Digesting the 70% price gap between the XLT and Platinum Lightning.

Horse-E

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One of the reasons I sold my Tesla: DIdn't want to own it when a huge tax credit gets reinstated and have the value drop by thousands in a day.
Eh, price is just going to go up to offset, it’s already been increasing stealthily.
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This is correct. Also, it won’t expire until EVs have 50% market saturation. That’s a long time. Additionally, here in Colorado, we have another $2500 tax credit. I could end up with $15000 off MSRP.

I’m still looking for confirmation on this but the wording of the bill seems to change this from a standard tax credit to something similar to an Earned Income Tax Credit. That means everyone can get it instead of just people that pay more than $7500 (or $12500) in taxes.

That said, this is still just a bill and it’s still in negotiation. A lot can change before it comes law.
Section II.B.3 of the Chairman's Mark of the The Clean Energy for America Act states the following:

Beginning January 1, 2022, the proposal makes the EV credit a refundable personal income tax credit for vehicles acquired on or after that date.

That whole section is proposed to be modified with the Stabenow Amendment#1 (see page 3). The Clean Energy for America Act Chairmans Modified Mark further modifies the EV incentive in Section A.7 which is where the union and final assembly in USA $2,500 incentives come in.

Also of interest is that the USA final assembly credit looks to increase from $2,500 to $5,000 for vehicles sold after December 31, 2025.

I imagine that these numbers will be trimmed quite a bit by the time they reach the floor (50% EV sales and CY26 $5,000 final assembly credit in particular IMO). Rejection of the modifications failed by 14-14 vote (see amendment #92). (Vote was strictly down party lines. :( )
 

newF150

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This is correct. Also, it won’t expire until EVs have 50% market saturation. That’s a long time. Additionally, here in Colorado, we have another $2500 tax credit. I could end up with $15000 off MSRP.

I’m still looking for confirmation on this but the wording of the bill seems to change this from a standard tax credit to something similar to an Earned Income Tax Credit. That means everyone can get it instead of just people that pay more than $7500 (or $12500) in taxes.

That said, this is still just a bill and it’s still in negotiation. A lot can change before it comes law.
Here in NJ it'll be direct $5k rebate plus there's no sales tax on EVs.
 

ChasingCoral

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Where will the Lariat land?
I have been analyzing and comparing ICE model price differences to try to better understand the huge gap between the Lightning XLT and Platinum price.

Things to remember: It doesn't matter what it cost to make, it's what they can get away with charging. There is no direct competition to the Lightning. The Mach-E is a direct competitor with the Tesla Model Y and it's pricing shows that, same with Bronco v. Wrangler. The best comp I can come up with to the Lightning is the hybrid F-150. Out the door price gap between an optioned XLT and Platinum however is only 24% on the Hybrid F-150.

Hopefully this picture is readable. I'm estimating out the door price of optioned XLT and Lariat. I have low expectations of meeting my budget, hoping for an upside surprise come order time at the end of the year

2021-05-26_16h29_08.jpg
Thanks for these estimates. I'm wondering how you came to your upper-end estimates. Ford says on their website:

Reserve Your F-150 Lightning
Be among the first to own the all-new 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning. Choose your dealer, fill out the reservation form and make a reservation. The entry model starts at $39,974 MSRP (commercial-oriented). More-equipped mid-series (XLT) starts at $52,974 MSRP, offering additional comfort and technology. MSRP starting at $39,974 up to around $90,474.1

I've also been watching various YouTube previews of the Lightning and both Ford spokespersons and announcer/analysts armed with information from Ford keep repeating that a fully-loaded Platinum will be around $90K. Do you think your estimates may be about $5K too high, especially at the upper end?
 

EaglesPDX

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The comparison shows the tow package only available on the low end Lariat starting at $70K which is $10k cheaper than the XLT without it.

I'm hoping to get out of Dodge with $60k before rebates with 300 mile range, tow package and Ford 360. Everything else is a frill for me.
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