Wave 3 Feb 3rd ~ XLT SR

[mattb]

i live in colorado, and just found this note in the state tax rebate document:

The amount of credit that can be claimed for the purchase of any qualifying truck is limited to the difference in manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) between the qualifying truck and a comparable truck that runs on either gasoline or diesel fuel.

lightning pro seems to be less expensive than a comparable super crew ICE XL, so may not qualify for the CO rebate.
lightning XLT looks to be more expensive than a comparable super crew ICE XLT.

https://tax.colorado.gov/sites/tax/files/documents/FYI_Income_69_July_2021.pdf

haha. i also just reread the quote, and it says "difference". doesn't say the EV has to be more.

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[ExCivilian]

That means that the XLT ER and Lariat ER will probably maintain really good resale value for quite a few years.

This first gen F150 is almost certainly going to retain value like a rock. By the time everyone here gets their vehicle delivered it will already be old tech.

 

[Bippers]

This first gen F150 is almost certainly going to retain value like a rock. By the time everyone here gets their vehicle delivered it will already be old tech.

I think longterm (20 years) this first gen will be desirable by being the simplest to repair and upgrade down the road. I mean parts sharing with a vehicle they make 900k of a year and the potential ability to fit in future improved batteries between the frame rails is ideal. If the second gen goes unibody like more modern cars it limits customizability and future modding.

 

[LightningShow]

This first gen F150 is almost certainly going to retain value like a rock. By the time everyone here gets their vehicle delivered it will already be old tech.

There won’t even be any other full size EV trucks in production until 2023. Probably late 2023 for consumer models. The used market for Lightnings will be good for the next 5 years or so, simply because there will be very few EV trucks produced in the next 3 years. The technology won’t matter much until there are several full sized EV trucks readily available to comparison shop. That’s a long way off.

 

[ExCivilian]

I'm sure those sound like compelling arguments to some people. Perhaps this will be an anomaly in automotive (and consumer product) history.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

I'm sure those sound like compelling arguments to some people. Perhaps this will be an anomaly in automotive (and consumer product) history.

Those happen. Think used car pricing for the last year.

 

[LightningShow]

I'm sure those sound like compelling arguments to some people. Perhaps this will be an anomaly in automotive (and consumer product) history.

The problem is that your initial argument about the newer technology EV trucks being available is simply wrong. They won't be readily available for several years.

 

[CoyoteJim]

The problem is that your initial argument about the newer technology EV trucks being available is simply wrong. They won't be readily available for several years.

Also, the tech in the Lightning seems pretty good...what really is the issue is battery weight/range. But 8 bolts (and probably some minor software and hardware changes) and that battery can be easily upgraded to newer/lighter/more energy dense battery tech in the late '20s after the market is flooded with solid state batteries. With 300,000+ first gen lightnings sold it seems like there will be a market for it.

 

[ExCivilian]

The XLT ER and Lariat ER are bad values now...and there's no evidence to suggest they will become better values as they age.

People who buy an XLT ER now will never realize the $20K expense as a "savings" and won't be able to resell the vehicle at even a $10K premium.

There's no reason to speculate: we have access to over a decade of 2nd hand sales patterns to draw upon.

what really is the issue is battery weight/range.

So...basically the entire essence of an EV. The plan to upgrade the battery packs, even in the context of a body on frame EV, is being significantly downplayed.

 

[LightningShow]

Also, Ford has now set the market for $/mile for full size EV trucks. Chevy isn't going to come in and undercut it them to any significant degree. Their 300 mile truck will be about $70k, too. I think people are significantly overestimating how quickly the EV truck market will mature. IMO we're talking about late-20s before you get an affordable 300+ mile truck (i.e. <$50k in 2022 dollars). Maybe early 30s.

 

[LightningShow]

The XLT ER and Lariat ER are bad values now...and there's no evidence to suggest they will become better values as they age.

People who buy an XLT ER now will never realize the $20K expense as a "savings" and won't be able to resell the vehicle at even a $10K premium.

There's no reason to speculate: we have access to over a decade of 2nd hand sales patterns to draw upon.

So...basically the entire essence of an EV. The plan to upgrade the battery packs, even in the context of a body on frame EV, is being significantly downplayed.

For one, you've completely changed your argument. But putting that aside, second hand resale values for ICE trucks will not predict second hand values for EV trucks over the next several years because the supply and demand situation is completely different.

Also, no one said you would get back the premium on the higher trims, that never happens anyway. What I did actually say was that the resale value will be better than a similarly priced luxury vehicle. Do you disagree with that?

 

[ExCivilian]

For one, you've completely changed your argument. But putting that aside, second hand resale values for ICE trucks will not predict second hand values for EV trucks over the next several years because the supply and demand situation is completely different.

Also, no one said you would get back the premium on the higher trims, that never happens anyway. What I did actually say was that the resale value will be better than a similarly priced luxury vehicle. Do you disagree with that?

How have I changed my argument? I also never said anything in regards to ICE sales. That's a strawman from you.

 

[jefro]

I haven't seen any battery upgrades of any importance. The BMW i3 had a company make a demonstration pack that was 3x oem. I'd guess F150 EV will be only a short run with a new model in a few years and part a won't go into part b truck

 

[CoyoteJim]

I haven't seen any battery upgrades of any importance. The BMW i3 had a company make a demonstration pack that was 3x oem. I'd guess F150 EV will be only a short run with a new model in a few years and part a won't go into part b truck

That's because there aren't enough batteries to meet current new EV demand, let alone to retrofit used EVs. In the late 20's or early 30's, when battery supply issues are worked out, there will be a large number of older EVs on the road. There will be third-party suppliers packaging retrofits for these cars - similar to the way a bunch of such companies sprang up to offer Lithium Ion plug-in conversions for Prius's about a decade ago. Or companies will offer kits where you can buy the batteries and do it yourself. Just send your old battery into Redwood for a little cash.

As soon as solid state batteries are available on AliExpress I'm going to build a new pack for my '18 Zero DS...bump my range up to 200 miles - with less weight! But I realize that won't be until '28 or so. I can wait.

 

[ExCivilian]

That's because there aren't enough batteries to meet current new EV demand, let alone to retrofit used EVs.

Some of the responses seem to imply that EVs are still in their infancy and that we don't already have established market patterns for the secondary sales market and after-sales upgrades. BEVs have been on the roads for over 15 years and hybrids for 25. If aftermarket pack upgrades were viable they would have surfaced by now. There are, to my knowledge, less than five companies that specialize in this area and their viability, or lack thereof, has nothing to do with cell shortages.

The reason 80 mile range EVs, such as Leafs, eGolfs, and FIATs aren't retrofitted is due to the ability to buy an EV that has better range for less money. It at least made some level of sense to try and retrofit batteries into those early BEVs when they were being resold for pennies on the dollar...but even then there was barely any market for it in the world (and none in the US other than one company that specializes in classic car retrofits).

That said, if it's true that one of the value propositions of a first gen XL ER is that it can be retrofitted with a longer-range battery in the future that makes the extended range option even less defensible. The savvy move in such a scenario would be to buy a mode with the shortest range necessary and then upgrade it with an aftermarket product.

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