Wave 3 Feb 3rd ~ XLT SR

[LightningShow]

EVs are definitely still in their infancy. As of today there are exactly zero full size EV trucks on the road.

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[CoyoteJim]

The reason 80 mile range EVs, such as Leafs, eGolfs, and FIATs aren't retrofitted is due to the ability to buy an EV that has better range for less money. It at least made some level of sense to try and retrofit batteries into those early BEVs when they were being resold for pennies on the dollar...but even then there was barely any market for it in the world (and none in the US other than one company that specializes in classic car retrofits).

80 mile range Leafs, eGolfs, FIATs and any EV compliance cars are the wrong kind of data points to be using. I have an i3 and if I could upgrade the battery I would, but even so that is still the wrong kind of comparison. The new EVs, led by Tesla, are fast, technologically advanced vehicles that get regular software updates to add new features and stay current. 5-10 years from now will someone be interested in swapping the battery in their Model S or X, Audi eTron, Hyundai Ionic 5, Cadillac Lyric or VW ID.4 to get double the range? You bet! Their F150L Platinum? Probably.

And the EV market is nowhere near mature. EVs were 6% of auto sales this year at best...over the period referenced above they were 1-2%, and there was little to no charging infrastructure during that time. Wait until every Shell has charging kiosks and battery supply catches up with demand.

 

[KevinC]

Tesla Model S Goes 752 Miles with a Prototype Battery from a Michigan StartupTesla After market Battery upgrade



This is why i'd be happy to settle for a SR F150 if I felt comfortable it was likely upgradable and not so awkwardly designed that no other battery would work with it's electrical system. My fear would be finding out it's internal electrical system or ford computer wouldn't communicate properly with the battery to manage its charging and capacity.

 

[Pilot2022]

I have added a reminder for Jan 1st, 2026 to see what predictions in this thread have come true and what did we missed in our forecasts…

 

[broncoaz]

So, like I said, too impatient to wait.

The tax credit isn't a valid argument because the Pro with the Tax credit would've been $32,5k. Even with the half credit next year it's still significantly less, especially for the difference between the 2 models.

- A light bar across the front
- Running Boards (which are dirt cheap aftermarket)
- Matching Bumper Color and Mirrors
- Additional options like the interior work space (which hasn't seemed too important in the forums)
- Cloth Seats
- A different Grill (which some actually don't prefer)
- 360 Degree Camera (only really valuable upgrade and it's available on the Pro for those who want it)

That's worth $13,000? Not even close.

Arguements of might cost more, and might not be available seems like FOMO which doesn't mean that the XLT is a good deal, just means people are scared of possibly (not confirmed or even suggested) missing out.

I'm not an individual with expendable income. I have a young family with a mortgage. A $800-$1300/mo vehicle loan isn't in the budget. When Ford says a $39,970 truck is available to the public and basically makes it Ford's #1 Selling point, then only makes 500 of them....yeah they pulled the rug out.

I didn't say the XLT is a horrible config, I said it's horrible compared to the Pro and 100% stand behind that.

I would like some power pedals for my short wife, but my Bronco doesn’t have them either.

 

[ExCivilian]

This is why i'd be happy to settle for a SR F150 if I felt comfortable it was likely upgradable and not so awkwardly designed that no other battery would work with it's electrical system. My fear would be finding out it's internal electrical system or ford computer wouldn't communicate properly with the battery to manage its charging and capacity.

That's a rational fear...especially given the fact that BMW and VAG, in particular, require dealer visits to change their 12v batteries. Obviously they are motivated to restrict aftermarket upgrades to their vehicle propulsion batteries.

VAG, specifically, already created a denser pack for the eGolf and then refused to sell it to anyone with a smaller pack for any price. Owners do have the option of shipping their vehicles off to Norway and having them retrofitted over there...I've seen a company doing it for FIATs but so far, to my knowledge, no one has successfully done this for an eGolf despite it being a factory option.

That article you linked explicitly states they are offering proof of concept in order to sell alternative pack technology to other manufacturers. They have no plans to offer after-market pack upgrades direct, or even indirectly, to consumers. Even more problematic is the fact the pack technology they used to showcase their efforts isn't even the tech they want to sell...they just wanted a headline. It's not a viable product--it doesn't even exist, yet--and has no relevance to this discussion about whether a top trim F150 Lightning is going to hold its value over the next few years because of some pie in the sky belief that everyone is going to be stripping $20K packs from their trucks and replacing them with solid-state battery packs.

And the EV market is nowhere near mature. EVs were 6% of auto sales this year at best...over the period referenced above they were 1-2%

CA, where you and I are located, is one of the largest auto markets in the world. Your i3 represents 9% of the "entry luxury" tier alone.
These are the data:

Plug-in electric car sales in California - Q1-Q3 2021

• BEVs: 123,244 (market share of 8.3%)
• PHEVs: 49,000 (market share of 3.3%)
• Total plug-ins: 172,244 (market share of 11.6%)
• HEVs: 152,941 (market share of 10.3%)
• Total xEVs: 325,185 (market share of 21.9%)

Top models
Five all-electric cars were at the forefront of their subcategories, and three of them were #1:

• Tesla Model Y (42,624, up 365%): #1 in Luxury Compact SUV (40.9% share)
• Tesla Model 3 (34,995, up 11%): #1 in Near Luxury (43.8% share)
• Chevrolet Bolt EV (9,945, up 93%): #1 in Subcompact (35.2% share)
• Tesla Model S (2,231, down 36%): #4 in Luxury and High End Sports Cars (6.2% share)
• BMW i3 (888): #5 in Entry Luxury (9.1% share)

https://insideevs.com/news/550298/california-plugin-sales-2021-q1q3/

It should be obvious market share in an immature market is not the reason for the paucity of after-market battery upgrade options. In fact, the only after-market company that offers this service in the US is based in SoCal...right down the road from me, in fact.

 

[RonTCat]

The XLT ER and Lariat ER are bad values now...and there's no evidence to suggest they will become better values as they age.

People who buy an XLT ER now will never realize the $20K expense as a "savings" and won't be able to resell the vehicle at even a $10K premium.

There's no reason to speculate: we have access to over a decade of 2nd hand sales patterns to draw upon.

So...basically the entire essence of an EV. The plan to upgrade the battery packs, even in the context of a body on frame EV, is being significantly downplayed.

I will say your estimates will be as accurate as the Lightning volume estimates, as they were both based on prior ICE vehicle data.

So guess what the (profit) margin is on the new Hummer BEV is?

 

[Roy2001]

XLT SR would be sold out very soon. I would just wait.

 

[jefro]

Texas couldn't get any EV's since most auto companies were placating CA for a few years. Lucky there were some used models that showed from lease companies. I enjoyed a great discount on my i3 that CA and USA paid partly for.

I traded in my i3 when the Bolt finally had deals and BMW announced that you'd never get a cheap replacement battery in any larger size.

"like some power pedals for my short wife," Implies maybe a tall wife also?

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Texas couldn't get any EV's since most auto companies were placating CA for a few years. Lucky there were some used models that showed from lease companies. I enjoyed a great discount on my i3 that CA and USA paid partly for.

I traded in my i3 when the Bolt finally had deals and BMW announced that you'd never get a cheap replacement battery in any larger size.

"like some power pedals for my short wife," Implies maybe a tall wife also?

Can’t never have too many.

 

[broncoaz]

Texas couldn't get any EV's since most auto companies were placating CA for a few years. Lucky there were some used models that showed from lease companies. I enjoyed a great discount on my i3 that CA and USA paid partly for.

I traded in my i3 when the Bolt finally had deals and BMW announced that you'd never get a cheap replacement battery in any larger size.

"like some power pedals for my short wife," Implies maybe a tall wife also?

I’m 6’4” tall, she is 5’2” tall. Try as I might I haven’t been able to make her taller in 22 years. I don’t like how close she is to the airbag in most vehicles, power pedals help, but I’ve only had one vehicle with them since we’ve been together.

 

[jazzmanmonty]

Tesla Model S Goes 752 Miles with a Prototype Battery from a Michigan StartupTesla After market Battery upgrade
This is why i'd be happy to settle for a SR F150 if I felt comfortable it was likely upgradable and not so awkwardly designed that no other battery would work with it's electrical system. My fear would be finding out it's internal electrical system or ford computer wouldn't communicate properly with the battery to manage its charging and capacity.

Ya, but remember the story about the Tesla guy that took it in to a service shop, they tampered with the battery and voided his warranty, then tesla wanted $26K to fix it? Ya, i'm not gonna mess with aftermarket batteries until my warranty is up.

 

[jazzmanmonty]

After reading all these posts, what I'm getting out of it is that since i ordered a "rare" 22 Pro, in about 15 years i can sell it to Richard when Fast n' Loud reboots for about $200k? Shit. Now i don't wanna drive it. Just gonna park it in garage, put it on a lift, and leave it plugged into the wall for 15 years.

 

[metroshot]

At this point if you can get an XLT SR with the $7500 tax credit then its a no brainer. That tax credit will probably be half gone before the next tiny batch of pros are released.

^^^ Agree!

I'd opt for the '22 XLT base SR since the Pro is no longer available for '22.
The XLT trim from Ford has always been the "workhorse" popular trim for many years.

As far as range, if I can get 200 miles per charge, I am tickled as my current daily driver gets 50 miles.

Charging every 5-6 days is a neat feature that I would love since my daily driver needs a charge every night.

 

[LightningShow]

Welp, now I really need to start thinking about what I want to do. I went down to my dealer and it looks like (based on their internal system) that I'm next in line at the dealership. They've had 7 orders in the first two waves, so I would think they would get some in wave 3 as well.

I'm waffling between the XLT SR and the Lariat ER. Tough call. Obviously it won't be a tough call if the XLT SR is sold out, though.

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