Is Ford Underestimating the Demand for the Pro Trim?

[BennyTheBeaver]

That being said, I don't think Ford cares too much if this Gen 1 EV Lightning sells 100,000 Pro models and 5,000 Platinum models. It's about the long game, and satisfied customers create repeat business.

I for one will buy my Pro SR next year (Day 1 reservation), and will be back in 4 years to buy a higher trim model (assuming it's as great as we all think it will be).

I'll probably put a reservation in for my next F-150 Lightning when I pick up my first one as I anticipate a 3 year wait to get through the rest of the reservations.

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[Blainestang]

I think Ford knows their truck buyers very well, however the lightning is going to bring a lot of customers who have never bought a Ford and also never bought a truck. Until order start to get placed I don't think anyone will really know where the demand lies.

Agreed. No one *knows*, and Ford probably can guess more accurately than most, but they also have financial incentive to tilt production toward the more expensive versions, so they're not unbiased... and neither am I probably since I want a Pro haha.

That said, I agree that we could see a substantial number of typically non-truck buyers want these. People who might otherwise buy a gas Accord might say, "Hey, why would I buy this $35k Accord when I could get a Lightning for less after tax credit AND still pay less for fuel? Why am I buying a "fuel efficient car" that actually costs more to fuel than a Lightning? Heck, the Lightning will cost substantially less to "fuel" than my MINI Coopers.

 

[gorwell]

have financial incentive to tilt production toward the more expensive versions

I think a lot of us are hoping that Ford is providing equal opportunity for Trim purchases. But,. realistically, they could likely limit Pro sales to only commercial and just put out for sale the Lariat and Platinum trims and still sell every Truck they make for the next 2 years without issue.

There's zero competition for Ford right now (Rivian is a truck but there's not a lot of overlap). On the commercial side, Lordstown is struggling to get their Truck out but with Foxconn now having a stake in their success, they are likely to at least have some type of production run around the time Ford delivers the Lightning (whether they sell well is another story). But, Ford likely doesn't consider them competition.

Hopefully, GM's reveal early next year is competitive and forces Ford to actually ramp up production for 2022.

GM is releasing a 400 mile Truck, if that comes out end of 2022 for a fair price, a lot of F150L potiential buyers are just going to hold out. But, if they aren't releasing until 2023/24, then Ford still has no real competition in the near term.

 

[Brian Head Yankee]

GM releasing a 400 mile truck is in conflict with the Pro customer. It will be much more expensive to get 400 miles of range that the price of a Pro. I can see a few high end buyers defecting. I would likely look close at the hummer if it was out.

 

[Bippers]

GM releasing a 400 mile truck is in conflict with the Pro customer. It will be much more expensive to get 400 miles of range that the price of a Pro. I can see a few high end buyers defecting. I would likely look close at the hummer if it was out.

I have always felt that if you really need the options in the higher trim levels that you would be more inclined to go with a competitor because to me they offer better alternatives. Imo GM's Super Cruise has a good proven track record compared to Blue Cruise.

 

[xtraman122]

Remember, those of us talking online are only .01% or less of reservations. What is demonstrated here is not really a good indicator for demand. I would expect demand to trend slightly towards higher trims as believe it or not new vehicle purchases and especially electric vehicles are still the arena of those with higher disposable income.

This.

Many on here forget what a small representation of the greater market is even on a site like this to begin with. Look at how few XLs or stripped down XLTs you see out on the street in day to day life. Most casual buyers out there opt for a pretty well equipped XLT or higher trim, and I definitely wouldn’t expect it to be any different on the lightning. I’m honestly somewhat surprised they’re offering the pro to the public at all, I suspect just so small businesses/independent contractors can buy one without needing full fleet status.

 

[gorwell]

GM releasing a 400 mile truck is (not) in conflict with the Pro customer

It is, if it is the right price for me and plenty others.

I'm getting a Pro not because I don't have the money to spend 70k on a truck but because I don't consider anything above the Pro price point to be worth it... The main factor, the DC charging on the Ford is outdated already and the GM truck is launching with 800v charging.

If GMs timing is right and they offer 60-70k for a 400 (or 300) mile 800v truck, that's worth the money. Will it happen at that price point, Probably not in the near term. But GM is ahead of ford in battery supply and has more economies of scale than rivian, so they will likely be priced better.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Ford has greatly underestimated the EV market in general. The same goes for GM and, to a worse degree, Stellantis. This is why for just dropped $11Billion for new factories dedicated to EV and battery production.

So yea, they're definitely underestimating demand for the Pro.

 

[Brian Head Yankee]

Very confusing SGT. You say they can sell every truck they can build and yet you say they underestimated the market? Any business that can sell out 3 years in advance is in a very good spot. Ford is building a 6 square mile battery plant. SIX SQUARE MILES.


And gorwell is even more confusing. "If GMs timing is right and they offer 60-70k for a 400 (or 300) mile 800v truck, that's worth the money." I'm ordering a ER XLT for $55k and $47k after the rebate. Ford offers you a 300+ range truck NOW for under $70k.

Confusing logic from both of you. The EV future is bright for every manufacturer, even companies selling retrofit EV kits. They can't ship them fast enough!

 

[Losi]

Ford has greatly underestimated the EV market in general. The same goes for GM and, to a worse degree, Stellantis. This is why for just dropped $11Billion for new factories dedicated to EV and battery production.

So yea, they're definitely underestimating demand for the Pro.

Which is crazy. As much as I like paying $60 for 250 miles in my minivan and the weak, inefficient drivetrain that it delivers, I would really appreciate a fully electric vehicle that can accommodate a large family. I don’t want to start a political argument but right or wrong, concern about climate change and the negative impact of ICE vehicles on the environment is steadily growing—has been for 30+ years. Why any of this was so hard for Ford or any motor company to anticipate on a sufficiently large scale is mind boggling…or maybe the Lightning has been in development for decades and the infrastructure is finally in place to do something about it.

 

[Blainestang]

This.

Many on here forget what a small representation of the greater market is even on a site like this to begin with. Look at how few XLs or stripped down XLTs you see out on the street in day to day life. Most casual buyers out there opt for a pretty well equipped XLT or higher trim, and I definitely wouldn’t expect it to be any different on the lightning. I’m honestly somewhat surprised they’re offering the pro to the public at all, I suspect just so small businesses/independent contractors can buy one without needing full fleet status.

The huge difference between the gas XL and the Pro is the price difference to XLT.

In the gas trucks, XLT is just $3-4k more. Kind of a no-brainer for most people so that their truck doesn't look like a work truck and be stripped down.

In the Lightning, XLT is $13k more... and the Pro is better equipped than an XL (12" screen, etc.), so the price gap is huge and even less justifiable.

I agree that forums and such aren't the perfect cross-section of truck buyers, but looking at gas XL sales ratio to estimate Pro sales ratio is definitely apples-to-oranges when the price gap to XLT is 3-4 times as big as it is in the gas trucks.

 

[gorwell]

I'm ordering a ER XLT for $55k and $47k after the rebate. Ford offers you a 300+ range truck NOW for under $70k.

Based on pricing the base ER XLT is $60k. Thats 53k + 7k extended range. Not sure how you got 55k. Also, factoring in taxes, add-ons, the price is $69k to me (before ev rebates).

However, as stated, the main reason why I don't consider Ford worth it is the outdated DC charging. As my comment stated, GM is launching with faster, 800v, DC charging which can cut charging times almost in half of what ford can do with less stress on the battery itself.

 

[xtraman122]

A question about the 800v charging on the GMs. Are there any significant number of chargers out there offering this yet? Or is buying a truck to have that charge rate like going out of your way to buy one of the first 5G cell phones when they came out, where you could take advantage of the increased rate in a whopping 3 spots in the entire country? And by the time 5G service was actually widely available, nearly every phone was offering it anyway.

I thought from what I had read there weren't even that many chargers offering DC fast charging as it is, forget the 800v standard, but I also don't own an EV yet so I'm not completely versed on how everything has progressed out there in the real world.

 

[Blainestang]

A question about the 800v charging on the GMs. Are there any significant number of chargers out there offering this yet? Or is buying a truck to have that charge rate like going out of your way to buy one of the first 5G cell phones when they came out, where you could take advantage of the increased rate in a whopping 3 spots in the entire country? And by the time 5G service was actually widely available, nearly every phone was offering it anyway.

I thought from what I had read there weren't even that many chargers offering DC fast charging as it is, forget the 800v standard, but I also don't own an EV yet so I'm not completely versed on how everything has progressed out there in the real world.

If you want to see a map of 800V locations, go to Plugshare . com and filter by the CCS plug and set the minimum charge rate to 200kW. That would give you a really good idea of charging locations that can take advantage of 800V charging capability.

I did the above and screenshotted it here:

~387 locations, which are mostly going to be highway routes because that's where they're most needed, currently, but it's a pretty robust network already and still growing of course.

 

[xtraman122]

If you want to see a map of 800V locations, go to Plugshare . com and filter by the CCS plug and set the minimum charge rate to 200kW. That would give you a really good idea of charging locations that can take advantage of 800V charging capability.

I did the above and screenshotted it here:

~387 locations, which are mostly going to be highway routes because that's where they're most needed, currently, but it's a pretty robust network already and still growing of course.

Thanks, further along than I expected. I guess I was confusing the kw vs voltage of the charging rates, seems some refer to them alternately, the 200kw doesn't seem that high of a number then.