Is Ford Underestimating the Demand for the Pro Trim?

[Bippers]

I have been picking up this general belief that no one want the "work truck version" from various car sites and forums. I know Ford sent out a poll early on asking about trim preference and options to a select few, (we don't know how they selected who were polled), and garnered a belief that the Pro would be low volume. However from the recent poll on here you can see demand is strong for the Pro trim. I hope Ford isn't going to be blindsided by the number of Pro orders come October 26th.

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[Kev12345]

they know everyone wants the pro extended range. that's why they're not making it available to consumers. they don't have the batteries to satisfy the demand.

 

[jbirdzee]

They have to be aware of the demand, but as a number of people have speculated (including myself) they are likely nudging everyone to the trims with higher margins. When you jump to the XLT you pay an additional $13000 for what has to amount to well under $5000 worth of parts. The restrictions on the ER Battery offering are the best way to steer people off of the PRO trim. As for the surveys - I am broken record on this one. I don't believe Ford's survey results, or at least that they are unbiased enough to represent the true demand of the various trim levels.

 

[astricklin]

Remember, those of us talking online are only .01% or less of reservations. What is demonstrated here is not really a good indicator for demand. I would expect demand to trend slightly towards higher trims as believe it or not new vehicle purchases and especially electric vehicles are still the arena of those with higher disposable income.

 

[sotek2345]

I am not too surprised by the survey results they got and it aligned with what I would expect. Early adopters tend (in general) to be those that are less price sensitive than the average buyer. They are willing to pay more (and put up with more bugs) to have the latest and greatest. Yes there will be a segment that are only going for the Lightning based on the low entry price point, but I would be willing to bet that the majority (maybe even vast majority) or retail reservation holders are going for the higher level trims with most/all of the bells and whistles.

I actually expect the ER Lariat to be the highest take trim from the reservations. It gives you all of the tech features either standard or as an option which will be a big drive for people - especially Blue Cruise and the large 1.5.5" screen (even though that doesn't really matter to me).

 

[metroshot]

I have been picking up this general belief that no one want the "work truck version" from various car sites and forums. I know Ford sent out a poll early on asking about trim preference and options to a select few, (we don't know how they selected who were polled), and garnered a belief that the Pro would be low volume. However from the recent poll on here you can see demand is strong for the Pro trim. I hope Ford isn't going to be blindsided by the number of Pro orders come October 26th.

For a brand new model & year truck, there are many that are either skeptical or uncertain of it's value over time who would tend to choose the Pro trim to start.

As the refresh (LCI) happens later or the next gen Lightning is designed, as the trucks evolve and people drive them around - there will be a shift towards the higher trim.

I for one am looking forward to the configurator to see what options can be put on the Pro trim (optional cloth seats) or else have to go for a base XLT with cloth seats (my preferred material due to the extreme heat)...

 

[Vulnox]

I am not too surprised by the survey results they got and it aligned with what I would expect. Early adopters tend (in general) to be those that are less price sensitive than the average buyer. They are willing to pay more (and put up with more bugs) to have the latest and greatest. Yes there will be a segment that are only going for the Lightning based on the low entry price point, but I would be willing to bet that the majority (maybe even vast majority) or retail reservation holders are going for the higher level trims with most/all of the bells and whistles.

I actually expect the ER Lariat to be the highest take trim from the reservations. It gives you all of the tech features either standard or as an option which will be a big drive for people - especially Blue Cruise and the large 1.5.5" screen (even though that doesn't really matter to me).

I suspect that tax credit has a lot of people aiming a bit higher as well. If someone can make do with a standard range Lariat, they get a lot of truck after tax credit. Even the XLT SR or ER after tax credit is probably worth it for many to make the jump over Pro.

Where that equation will likely change is the 2023 or 2024 model year when Ford runs out of tax credit availability like Tesla and GM have, assuming something isn't passed before then that extends it. Ford will either have to hope the economies of scale allow them to lower the prices to make up for the lost credit, or at that point we will see more people opting for Pro or XLT that may have gone XLT or Lariat before.

 

[astricklin]

I really want several features that currently appear to not be available on the PRO but personally $55-65k for a vehicle is going to be a difficult proposition. I really hope they revise the XLT pricing down a little bit.

 

[Blainestang]

I have been picking up this general belief that no one want the "work truck version" from various car sites and forums. I know Ford sent out a poll early on asking about trim preference and options to a select few, (we don't know how they selected who were polled), and garnered a belief that the Pro would be low volume. However from the recent poll on here you can see demand is strong for the Pro trim. I hope Ford isn't going to be blindsided by the number of Pro orders come October 26th.

I don't know if Ford made a biased selection on who they polled, or if they're guessing based on the percentage of XL trim GAS trucks (which is a poor comparison, IMO), but I think Ford's info is mistaken. If they didn't put any restrictions on trim level production, then I think the Pro SR would be one of the best-selling retail trims because it's a killer value, reasonable price, and still pretty well featured compared to a typical "work truck." XLT ER would probably be the best seller, but Pro SR would be a strong seller.

 

[TES0323]

Especially if the tax credit passes (huge IF of course) the demand for the Pro will be insane. $27.5k is cheaper than the cheapest bare-bones XL ICE F-150. I doubt Ford is underestimating the demand, but that doesn’t mean they’re ready for it. The Ford Maverick hybrid is outselling the Ecoboost by a wide margin but the majority of the ones being built are Ecoboosts due to production constraints/higher profit margins/whatever the reason is.

 

[Fordskeptic]

I am looking at the Pro version mainly based on price and practicality. I like amenities as much the next guy, but simply cannot afford the higher trims. Hope that doesn't push delivery out to 2024 for me. If it does, maybe I can snag a gently used Lightning at a decent price....who knows what the used truck market will be then??

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

Gen 1? I'm all in on the Pro now. I was in the XLT ER camp but getting a Gen 1 Electric truck that can satisfy 95% off all my uses for under $30k (I live in Oregon) is a no-brainer. I plan on buying it with Ford Options and selling it back to buy a nicer trim in 4 years.

Unfortunately, Ford's idea of allowing the Public to buy the cheapest fleet model (Pro SR) but not the ER fleet model (Pro ER) may end up backfiring. The almost $20k jump in price to get the ER for us consumers is causing others like me to just settle for the Pro SR. I have no problem driving my electric truck and waiting 4 years for Ford to get a better grasp on batteries and technology before investing $60k+.

 

[shutterbug]

I have been picking up this general belief that no one want the "work truck version" from various car sites and forums. I know Ford sent out a poll early on asking about trim preference and options to a select few, (we don't know how they selected who were polled), and garnered a belief that the Pro would be low volume. However from the recent poll on here you can see demand is strong for the Pro trim. I hope Ford isn't going to be blindsided by the number of Pro orders come October 26th.

I think Ford is underestimating the demand for the Pro trim. But I am biased. I already have an EV with all the creature comforts I could want and a decent size battery, and no towing and no long trips. If I didn't, and this was going to be my only vehicle, I would be looking at Lariat with a bunch of options on top of that. Maybe even a Platinum.

 

[astricklin]

I think Ford knows their truck buyers very well, however the lightning is going to bring a lot of customers who have never bought a Ford and also never bought a truck. Until order start to get placed I don't think anyone will really know where the demand lies.

 

[BennyTheBeaver]

I think Ford knows their truck buyers very well, however the lightning is going to bring a lot of customers who have never bought a Ford and also never bought a truck. Until order start to get placed I don't think anyone will really know where the demand lies.

75% of the 150k Ford F-150 Lightning reservations have never owned a Ford.

I think Ford knows their ICE truck buyers VERY VERY well.

I'm not entirely sure Ford does know exactly what these consumers want. They already guessed wrong on demand and initial production estimates based on demand.

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