Uh, Oh... looks like the EV tax credits are hitting an obstacle

[TF1000]

My '74 Norton is for fun (but definitely not reliable).

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[PungoteagueDave]

I disagree that the maximum extent of behavior is locked in currently. Multiple manufacturers have stated a rapid growth of EVs in the next few years with dozens of new models being produced. Moreover, as the price of technology comes down-- there will be more of these EVs geared towards those of more modest income. Whereas those of a higher income(i.e. more disposable income) were swayed with the novelty factor, those of lesser means will need incentives to jump into a more expensive EV compared to a comparable ICE.

Electric vehicle trends | Deloitte Insights

Only certain models of EVs are sold out-- you can still go out and buy a Bolt, a Leaf, or a Niro EV with no additional wait(compared to the typical ICE model).

As for the credit, I'll say it again... if the goal is to get people to switch from ICE cars to EVs(for the sake of the environment) its simply not enough to match what they have currently(value equation). With people keeping their vehicle on average 10+ yrs it would take way too long. The credit would have to make it economically advantageous to trade in their ICE "early" for an EV.

Again, you miss the point. the Bolt no longer qualifies for any credit, nor does any GM product. That's the point. Same for Tesla. And they can sell every one they make. Every EV that is produced during the time period proposed under these credits will sell. Provide whatever stupid study links you want - the FACT IS THAT NOT ONE SINGLE ADDITIONAL EV WILL BE ON THE ROAD AS A RESULT OF THE PROPOSED BBB TAX CREDITS, FULL STOP. THAT IS FACT. You can't provide a single fact or study that can refute this statement. Tesla and Ford and every other manufacturer have massive EV backlogs. Consumer acceptance, adoption and demand far outstrips both existing and forward supply. Did it help conversion rates in Norway? OF COURSE - that was an early case and completely non-comparable to the U.S. and it was BEFORE the consumer conversion/acceptance that has since occurred.

Facts are facts folks - incentives are no longer required to sell EV's. I don't think they were EVER required - the first Model S sold itself and the credits I and others received were just pandering to wealth - every Tesla ever made would have sold two or three times over without ANY credits and borrowing from future generations. But even it you refuse to believe that - and insist that they WORKED - fine - Elon Musk says they worked, did their job, game over, we won, and they are now a detriment going forward - in his own words. When Tesla, a pure EV manufacturer has a market capitalization bigger than the other auto manufacturers combined, the market is telling you that it concludes the CONSUMER is lined up to buy EV's. The government needs to stand aside.

 

[MikePinkston]

Again, you miss the point. the Bolt no longer qualifies for any credit, nor does any GM product. That's the point. Same for Tesla. And they can sell every one they make. Every EV that is produced during the time period proposed under these credits will sell. Provide whatever stupid study links you want - the FACT IS THAT NOT ONE SINGLE ADDITIONAL EV WILL BE ON THE ROAD AS A RESULT OF THE PROPOSED BBB TAX CREDITS, FULL STOP. THAT IS FACT. You can't provide a single fact or study that can refute this statement. Tesla and Ford and every other manufacturer have massive EV backlogs. Consumer acceptance, adoption and demand far outstrips both existing and forward supply. Did it help conversion rates in Norway? OF COURSE - that was an early case and completely non-comparable to the U.S. and it was BEFORE the consumer conversion/acceptance that has since occurred.

Facts are facts folks - incentives are no longer required to sell EV's. I don't think they were EVER required - the first Model S sold itself and the credits I and others received were just pandering to wealth - every Tesla ever made would have sold two or three times over without ANY credits and borrowing from future generations. But even it you refuse to believe that - and insist that they WORKED - fine - Elon Musk says they worked, did their job, game over, we won, and they are now a detriment going forward - in his own words. When Tesla, a pure EV manufacturer has a market capitalization bigger than the other auto manufacturers combined, the market is telling you that it concludes the CONSUMER is lined up to buy EV's. The government needs to stand aside.

You both make good sense in my book!

I do have a couple of questions though. Is market capitalization a good measure for consumer demand? I thought it was mostly about stock price and that's about institutional investors, day traders, and such.

In my mind I picture a building with the blue Ford logo pouring out trucks like pouring water out of a boot and Tesla generates a different picture in my mind. How do their maximum production capabilities differ?

So the other question(s) is can Ford produce a lot more vehicles than Tesla and would the lifespan of the incentives increase EV ownership if production ramped up quickly? Supply chain problems aside of course.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Bolt no longer qualifies for any credit, nor does any GM product.

Except that disproves your point, EV's without rebate sit (Bolt) along side EV's with rebates (Kona). It is the PRICE POINT that is the reason they sit, they are too expensive for working people with or without rebate and sit while high end EV's sell either way.

The EV subsidies work as we see with every economic example from Norway to China to US per links and references above.

Stating they don't in the face of the overwhelming evidence is putting ideology over facts.

Here it is stated by forum member on their MachE in another discussion.

" It really was the $7,500 tax credit that put it over the edge"

 

[Snakebitten]

Ummmm, the Bolt sits for a reason other than its price. It's still a product that has to compete with other products.
If we are going to conclude that any car made that doesn't sell is because it needs taxpayers to pay for it, that's a sad precedent.

Cars are more than "units" to a large majority of Americans.

The Chevy Bolt literally competes price wise with the Lightning Pro SR. Something about that just doesn't add up.
And the battery recall doesn't help its reputation.

 

[EaglesPDX]

the Bolt sits for a reason other than its price.

Indeed which is why the example included Kona and similar priced EV's which also sit.

As a wise sage once said, facts are facts, the EV subsidies work in US and in every economy in the world in every example. They only don't work in one corner of academia.

Particularly true for US Federal tax credit since it is a secondary credit and many people at the Bolt/Kona price point don't even get the full $7,500 rebate.

Best change they could make to the EV credit is making a full tax credit so that people would get full credit including a rebate.

 

[biers]

Bolts sit on the lots because they only appeal to a small slice of the market. Soon as their credit was exhausted they slapped the same or more cash on the hood. They are a fun little car. But they are little and odd looking. And they might catch on fire ?

 

[vandy1981]

I would guess that the credits have the most impact at the lower end of the market. It would be hard to justify buying a $30,000 Bolt EUV when there's a $20,000 Trailblazer sitting next to it. A $10,000 credit makes it easier to go with the EUV.

Someone who picks up a $120,000 Taycan or a $90,000 F150L Platinum was probably committed to getting an EV before accounting for the incentive.

Take all this with a grain of salt. I'm not an economist and don't know how to write in all caps.

 

[Losi]

Take all this with a grain of salt. I'm not an economist and don't know how to write in all caps.

I’m going to take this a step further and say not only are you not an economist, you are not an economist at a major university, so please get your credentials in order before you start espousing unsubstantiated opinions on this forum, especially in the tax section, where we fellow f-150 enthusiasts are all something of an expert.

 

[Hemitoeco]

But AFTER receiveing $2.23B in EV tax credits. Take that and all the other Federal, state and local tax credits away and Tesla never gets off the ground.

And US EV adoption is TOO SLOW to fix the global warming issue. In order to speed up EV adoption and reduce emissions we need to increase the subsidy.

Forget the economic ideology and focus on the science problem and solutions.

Remember, it isn’t global warming anymore. That was disproved and the correct name is climate change.

 

[TF1000]

I’m going to take this a step further and say not only are you not an economist, you are not an economist at a major university, so please get your credentials in order before you start espousing unsubstantiated opinions on this forum, especially in the tax section, where we fellow f-150 enthusiasts are all something of an expert.

Sarcasm aside you could put a dozen nobel prize winning economists in a room together and they wouldn't all agree (yet they all could be right).

 

[TF1000]

Remember, it isn’t global warming anymore. That was disproved and the correct name is climate change.

Actually both terms are still used in the scientific world. Global warming causes climate change.

 

[Snakebitten]

Dang @Losi
Your disappearing post had me posting what my oldest daughter snuck in and hung on the wall of my RV.
(I'm not exactly sure what that reveals about how she sees dad)

 

[Losi]

Dang @Losi
Your disappearing post had me posting what my oldest daughter snuck in and hung on the wall of my RV.
(I'm not exactly sure what that reveals about how she sees dad)

I’m not sure either, but if she’s a fan of the Dude, I have renewed faith in humanity. You must be doing something right.

…about those 12 economists not agreeing but being right: if everyone is right, then no one is…we must parse the nuances of the Dude’s intellect for clarity:

 

[greenne]

Again, you miss the point. the Bolt no longer qualifies for any credit, nor does any GM product. That's the point. Same for Tesla. And they can sell every one they make. Every EV that is produced during the time period proposed under these credits will sell. Provide whatever stupid study links you want - the FACT IS THAT NOT ONE SINGLE ADDITIONAL EV WILL BE ON THE ROAD AS A RESULT OF THE PROPOSED BBB TAX CREDITS, FULL STOP. THAT IS FACT. You can't provide a single fact or study that can refute this statement. Tesla and Ford and every other manufacturer have massive EV backlogs. Consumer acceptance, adoption and demand far outstrips both existing and forward supply. Did it help conversion rates in Norway? OF COURSE - that was an early case and completely non-comparable to the U.S. and it was BEFORE the consumer conversion/acceptance that has since occurred.

Facts are facts folks - incentives are no longer required to sell EV's. I don't think they were EVER required - the first Model S sold itself and the credits I and others received were just pandering to wealth - every Tesla ever made would have sold two or three times over without ANY credits and borrowing from future generations. But even it you refuse to believe that - and insist that they WORKED - fine - Elon Musk says they worked, did their job, game over, we won, and they are now a detriment going forward - in his own words. When Tesla, a pure EV manufacturer has a market capitalization bigger than the other auto manufacturers combined, the market is telling you that it concludes the CONSUMER is lined up to buy EV's. The government needs to stand aside.

Dude..you just showed how screwed up your logic is(or lack thereof)...

"Provide whatever stupid study links you want - the FACT IS THAT NOT ONE SINGLE ADDITIONAL EV WILL BE ON THE ROAD AS A RESULT OF THE PROPOSED BBB TAX CREDITS, FULL STOP. THAT IS FACT. You can't provide a single fact or study that can refute this statement."

Nothing can be a FACT in the future. It ONLY becomes a fact when it actually happens(or doesn't happen).

You're entitled to your opinions, NOT your own facts.

As far as market capitalization....you're cherry picking facts(again). Of course they dominate the EV market as it is very small. They took advantage of a niche market(used tax credits to do it..even Musk admits this) and now have a huge leg up on legacy automaker and other startups alike. I give them credit for this. Its was a great business plan. Time will tell if Tesla can compete in a full market against other Evs that are coming now that Ford/GM/Toyota and pretty much everyone is on board with EVs. We'll see.

But the big picture is tesla only sells a fraction of other automakers..so while they are selling 500,000 teslas a year(worldwide)..Honda sells 19.3 Million vehicles(worldwide). Toyota sells 10.6 Million. Ford-- 5.4 Million.
(Sales figures from Statistica.com)

So Tesla has a long way to go despite how much Elon keeps inflating its stock value....

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