F-150 Lightning order numbers don’t include fleet buyers, which means it’ll be sold out for a long time

[rydfree]

I thought Ford had previously indicated that it was fulfilling retail reservation order holders first.

LOL , I remember that email from Ford about my Bronco . 500 days and counting

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[rydfree]

, but you're telling me they won't be even able to produce over 15,000 for customers in 2022?! I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. They'll ramp up production, just as they did for the Bronco.

They ramped up production ? 500 days here and still waiting on my Bronco . LMAO

 

[Royalist]

They ramped up production ? 500 days here and still waiting on my Bronco . LMAO

Yes, they have. I can now go out and purchase one no problem. There are about 200 2 and 4 Door Bronco's in my area, of which about 25% are at MSRP. A month or two ago, there were like 10 in my area total. Been plenty of articles on the Bronco's being pushed out recently.

 

[rydfree]

Yes, they have. I can now go out and purchase one no problem. There are about 200 2 and 4 Door Bronco's in my area, of which about 25% are at MSRP. A month or two ago, there were like 10 in my area total. Been plenty of articles on the Bronco's being pushed out recently.

If you want a 4 dr base or Big Bend with the 2.3 and soft top. If you have a reservation for anything else you're still screwed ,lol .

 

[Snakebitten]

Yeah you're right, but the majority are F-150's. Yes it's a new platform but production will ramp up drastically. The Lightning is the latest electric to be unveiled, yet it will most likely be the first to market.

What I would love to know, but I'm sure it's not public information, is just what is the production capacity of the new F150 EV factory?
The decisions made regarding that new factory and its maximum output was made long before the Lightning was public knowledge. Long before any reservation system played out. Long before Ford could actually measure the response. So how safe did they play it?
Obviously Ford can increase it in the future IF demand is higher than they GUESSED, but the NEAR future (2-3 years?) is already etched in stone, so to speak.
If I had to guess, I would expect that Ford is both excited and a little surprised that the response is as strong as it is. If that's true then that would imply that they underestimated rather than overestimated, which is less risky too.

 

[Garbone]

They ramped up production ? 500 days here and still waiting on my Bronco . LMAO

Not to rub salt but I feel your pain on the Bronco. I canceled my Day 3 Bronco Res when I got my MachE last February. Just put in my Lightning reservation but expect to get a Maverick EV before my F150 is delivered just because I plan to have a day 1 res when the Mav EV is offered.

 

[sotek2345]

What I would love to know, but I'm sure it's not public information, is just what is the production capacity of the new F150 EV factory?
The decisions made regarding that new factory and its maximum output was made long before the Lightning was public knowledge. Long before any reservation system played out. Long before Ford could actually measure the response. So how safe did they play it?
Obviously Ford can increase it in the future IF demand is higher than they GUESSED, but the NEAR future (2-3 years?) is already etched in stone, so to speak.
If I had to guess, I would expect that Ford is both excited and a little surprised that the response is as strong as it is. If that's true then that would imply that they underestimated rather than overestimated, which is less risky too.

From everything that has been released, it looks like their new rouge facility is maxed at 80k to 90k per year running 3 shifts. That makes sense if their original projection was 40k per year as that would let them hit that number with a first shift and partial second shift (saving shift differential pay). Going to 3 full shifts let them double production with basically the same equipment setup.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I just ordered mine tonight. I find it extremely hard to believe all the normal customer orders won't be fulfilled by the end of 2023. Ford has been producing over 900,000 F-150's alone per year. The fact they're going electric in the coming years solidifies that reasoning. I get battery, chip, and other part shortages, but you're telling me they won't be even able to produce over 15,000 for customers in 2022?! I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. They'll ramp up production, just as they did for the Bronco.

The Lightning preorder backlog is now around 200,000 according to the most recent reports. They may ramp up, but there's no way they can full even a substantial portion of that by the end of next year. 50,000? Maybe - but that still puts you well into 2023, probably back half.

 

[Snakebitten]

Although we have nothing official to lean on, we have the ability to be rational.
If it's reached 200,000 then the estimates that were valid when it was 120,000 or 140,000.... are no longer valid.
It's not rational to claim that a fixed amount of time that it would take to satisfy the reservation customers can simply be increased by Ford with running another shift, or speeding up the assembly line.

Note that I am not claiming that any predictions have been accurate.

 

[MD56]

I'm very new to this world of reservations / ordering vehicles and my expectations were definitely naive. I actually sold one of our two daily drivers in early October in anticipation of being able to order my Lightning and under the assumption that i'd take delivery of it in a reasonable amount of time (well, and to capitalize on the spike in resale values). The prospect of just sitting tight for another year is really taking the wind out of my sales. It may still be my best option, but that's to say that i'm now considering other options (which sucks). I know i'm preaching to the choir, but any sort of official news would help... pricing, orders, availability, whatever! The wild speculation mixed with "hurry up and wait" just really takes the steam out of the excitement of purchasing a high end vehicle. Fortunately we're still in ok shape with just the one daily driver. Certainly not something i had intended to make work for an additional year + though. Sorry, I know this isnt adding to the conversation, just needed to purge a bit

 

[techguydave]

I'm in the same boat as you are. I assumed I'd order in October and take delivery in the spring. I can't hold off until 2023 so barring Ford saying they'll be knocking out 50k vehicles in the first model year I think I may be going Mach-E. Plus the SO loved the test drive so she can have that when I buy a gen 2 Lightning.

 

[Snakebitten]

You could always grab a fully depreciated low mileage daily driver to enjoy while you wait? They exist.

I grabbed a 15 year old low mileage Base model (less desirable amongst the experts)

I've had it for about 9 months and it's been bullet proof and a blast. Got it so cheap I'll just keep it, I think.

 

[techguydave]

You could always grab a fully depreciated low mileage daily driver to enjoy while you wait? They exist.

They do, but I've run heavily used beaters my whole life and can finally afford a new vehicle and I really want an EV. I'm still WFH and we have her car, so I'm not too terribly pressed, but it's extremely inconvenient in suburbia America.

 

[gwrace14651]

There will NOT be a next gen Lightning in 2025. Who comes up with this drivel? All of the above is complete rot. Disregard, move along folks. Ford is NOT going to do much more than minor updates to a three-year old completely new platform, full stop. Especially an EV platform.. Tesla is still making essentially minor tweaks to its Model S, which was introduced in 2011 and first delivered in 2012, and still seems reasonably competitive, with a huge order backlog (currently into 2023). It has been refreshed twice, but the basic form is unchanged. Ford should be able to get ten years out of the both the Mach E and Lightning platforms before significant reengineering.

What I would look for is battery, drive train and software improvements. Seems like every company is working on a more efficient and powerful battery. Ranges need to be competitive with similiar model ICE counterpart models. Also need to be working on recharge times.

 

[jefro]

Currently the holy grail is the solid state battery. If someone cracks that then EV's will supposedly charge in 5 minutes and go 500 miles.

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