F-150 Lightning order numbers don’t include fleet buyers, which means it’ll be sold out for a long time

[PungoteagueDave]

The Gen 2 Lightning for model year 2026 comes from this Article which talks about it using a new platform - TE1 (likely leveraging the new plants Ford is building in Kentucky and Tennessee).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-ford-doubles-lightning-production-193019622.html

Hard no on that - it was before the Rivian breakup was announced, and no source is cited. No way Ford jumps away from the new Lightning platform in only three years - it will still be rolling out new models on this platform at that point - SUV's etc.

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[astricklin]

Currently, Ford is planning to build 15,000 F-150s in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024. After that, the company will shift to its new EV-only TE1 truck platform.

Darren Palmer has stated on the inside EVs podcast that the 15k number is incorrect. We don't know what the actual numbers will be and Ford is never going to actually state what the production targets are. We won't know until after sales are reported and usually they lump all f series trucks together. However for the tax credit reporting they may have to break out the mach-e vs lightning sales.

 

[Snakebitten]

Ford wants to build and sell as many vehicles as they can. That's what they do. Whatever the actual number of Lightnings are the first year, I can't see how Ford would intentionally slow production. Honestly, supply chain issues are probably the biggest hurdle and Ford can't solve that on their own.

 

[Tomf]

When I was at the lightning drive event someone from a local utility, water I think, wanted to give an order for 50 trucks as soon they could get them. I think there will be plenty of fleet demand, but availability will drive a lot of that. Getting something in maybe two years doesn’t really work.

 

[Garbone]

Fleet dealers will get an allocation just like everyone else. It is another layer of complexity that we as consumers do not see but that has been worked into the sauce already. Much like the MachE with over half of the run being sold overseas Ford will do it's best to keep everyone happy and piss everyone off at the same time.

 

[sotek2345]

When I was at the lightning drive event someone from a local utility, water I think, wanted to give an order for 50 trucks as soon they could get them. I think there will be plenty of fleet demand, but availability will drive a lot of that. Getting something in maybe two years doesn’t really work.

I see the opposite actually - if you manage a fleet it is much easier to plan ahead than it is for an individuals. You know when ~50 vehicles in your fleet are scheduled to rotate out and can plan years in advance. Issues with 1 or 2 individuals vehicles aren't a big deal. A retail buyer can plan as well, but if there current vehicle has a major mechanical issue, or gets in an accident, that can upset their whole plan.

 

[shutterbug]

Fleet dealers will get an allocation just like everyone else. It is another layer of complexity that we as consumers do not see but that has been worked into the sauce already. Much like the MachE with over half of the run being sold overseas Ford will do it's best to keep everyone happy and piss everyone off at the same time.

It's unlikely any F150L will go overseas.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

It's unlikely any F150L will go overseas.

I think he meant the MachE

 

[shutterbug]

I think he meant the MachE

Sure, but that's a crucial difference between MME and F150L. Most MMEs went to Europe. All of F150Ls will stay in North America.

 

[sotek2345]

Sure, but that's a crucial difference between MME and F150L. Most MMEs went to Europe. All of F150Ls will stay in North America.

Yes, but the point was a comparison. Most Mach-e deliveries were to Europe, slowing supply to US customers. For the F150L, most deliveries will go to commercial customers, similarly slowing supply to retail customers.

 

[SteffanG]

I doubt Ford will focus mostly on commercial pro models as they arent making much on those models. The retail reservations that will have longer wait times will likely be the pro and XLT trims. They will likely push as many Lariat and Platinum trims out as possible due to making a lot more profit on those.
They say they are making all trims at the same time, but they didn't say what they are prioritizing (likely push out high trims as much as they can and fill in some lower trims to keep people happy)

 

[Royalist]

I just ordered mine tonight. I find it extremely hard to believe all the normal customer orders won't be fulfilled by the end of 2023. Ford has been producing over 900,000 F-150's alone per year. The fact they're going electric in the coming years solidifies that reasoning. I get battery, chip, and other part shortages, but you're telling me they won't be even able to produce over 15,000 for customers in 2022?! I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. They'll ramp up production, just as they did for the Bronco.

 

[Snakebitten]

I think that's 900,000 F series trucks annually. The F150 is about 550,000 of that. Unless I'm mistaken, but I don't think so.

Having said that, I don't think we can use F150 ICE production capabilities as any kind of indicator of Lighting production prowess. It's a separate product on a separate platform in a dedicated facility. All brand new and never used. It's both an exciting and daunting task to get it all ramped up and spitting out F150's.

 

[jefro]

Other than the claimed Tesla Hertz deal at sticker I've never heard of fleet customers paying list price. US Government used to buy Dodges at half the msrp.

I seem to recall that million truck quote but was usually almost equal to the Chevy plus GM totals.

 

[Royalist]

I think that's 900,000 F series trucks annually. The F150 is about 550,000 of that. Unless I'm mistaken, but I don't think so.

Having said that, I don't think we can use F150 ICE production capabilities as any kind of indicator of Lighting production prowess. It's a separate product on a separate platform in a dedicated facility. All brand new and never used. It's both an exciting and daunting task to get it all ramped up and spitting out F150's.

Yeah you're right, but the majority are F-150's. Yes it's a new platform but production will ramp up drastically. The Lightning is the latest electric to be unveiled, yet it will most likely be the first to market.

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