Just How In Demand ARE EV Trucks

[TexasGuy]

I'm going to throw a lit match into some gasoline here:

I think the demand for these BEV trucks is way overestimated. My guess is that a majority of folks who have placed deposits or have reservations for a EV truck (Rivian R1T/R1S, Tesla Cybertruck, F150 Lightning, Hummer or Silverado EV) have deposits on more than one of these vehicles. My assumptions or data points are:

I am active on this forum and the Rivian forum and have deposits on those two plus the Cybertruck,
I will buy only one of the three and cancel two.
Many posters on these forums have talked about cancelling their reservations for one reason or another,
Other posters have mentioned that they have 2-4 reservations and are waiting to see which one they can get first.
Somewhere I read that 50% of all people with reservations on the Silverado EV also have reservations on other BEV trucks.

As for the utility of the EV Truck:

Like any EV vehicle, as long as it takes more than 5 minutes to charge, they are not ideal for road trips,
When used to tow, their range decreases considerably,
Weather, tires, wheels and driving style also have material impacts on range.
A significant portion of folks who say range is not critical have other vehicles they use for longer trips, don't take trips or don't have an EV.
EVs did not become as acceptable as they are today (and that is certainly not a universal acceptability) until the range hits the 300 mile number.

So my conclusions are:

- Only about 1/3 of all reservations currently out there across all the EVs mentioned will be converted to orders,
- Until charging on the road is similar to filling a car with gas, the utility of all EVs will limited,
- Ford, being the first to market in any real numbers will do well,
- Rivian will have Tesla-like ramp up, QC & customer service issues,
- If Ford produces a BEV F150 with range over 350 miles before 12/31/2023, Chevy's Silverado EV sales will be disappointing,
- All the manufacturers with their promises to produce all or mostly EVs by 2030 or some date will have issues with their huge investments unless governments absolutely ban the sale of gas powered vehicles.

Has anyone ever thought of how many chargers will be needed if everyone drove an EV? Where will the power come from to power all the new chargers: The grid just doesn't have that much capacity. Maybe we wouldn't need too many more local stations as most will charge at home, but on the highway, every "gas station" will need 8x - 10x as many chargers as they currently have gas pumps.

The two solutions that would make EVs really practical are:

Swappable batteries (like the propane tank model) that take <5 minutes to swap, or,
Hydrogen electric fuel cells that make filling up similar gasoline cars today.

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[Maquis]

A couple of observations.
Elon promised swappable batteries “within the next year.” I think that was in 2013. It will never happen given current battery technology. I won’t swap my <1 year old battery and take a chance on getting something near its end of life.

Fleet use cases are largely extensive daily local use, and back to the barn at night. Public charging infrastructure is not a hinderance for this use case. Same for most private users. My Mach-E came with 500 kWh of no-cost public charging. It’s likely they will expire before I use them all.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that folks intending to purchase one truck have reservations with multiple manufacturers. That said, true demand will still exceed supply for at least the next couple of years.

 

[TexasGuy]

A couple of observations.
Elon promised swappable batteries “within the next year.” I think that was in 2013. It will never happen given current battery technology. I won’t swap my <1 year old battery and take a chance on getting something near its end of life.

Why? Do you care about the condition of the propane tank you get? You assume that it is tested every so often to ensure it's safe. Why would you feel different about batteries? As they approach their end of life, they'd get recycled.

Also, so you get a 'bad' battery which has only 75%-90% capacity. Why do you care? It's not yours. You replace it next charge. Worst case it's life filling up your gas tank to 3/4. You just have to stop a little sooner.

 

[jb56]

I'm going to throw a lit match into some gasoline here:

I think the demand for these BEV trucks is way overestimated. My guess is that a majority of folks who have placed deposits or have reservations for a EV truck (Rivian R1T/R1S, Tesla Cybertruck, F150 Lightning, Hummer or Silverado EV) have deposits on more than one of these vehicles. My assumptions or data points are:

You might be totally right. But Tesla's entire lineup of S3XY models only sell about 500,000 units. But more than 11 million pickup trucks are sold in the US per year. If only 1% of those sales convert to EV trucks, that's 110,000 units per year. I don't think it's unrealistic at all to say that over the next 3 or 4 years, it will hit 5% of truck sales.

 

[greenne]

A couple of observations.
Elon promised swappable batteries “within the next year.” I think that was in 2013. It will never happen given current battery technology. I won’t swap my <1 year old battery and take a chance on getting something near its end of life.

Fleet use cases are largely extensive daily local use, and back to the barn at night. Public charging infrastructure is not a hinderance for this use case. Same for most private users. My Mach-E came with 500 kWh of no-cost public charging. It’s likely they will expire before I use them all.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that folks intending to purchase one truck have reservations with multiple manufacturers. That said, true demand will still exceed supply for at least the next couple of years.

I think you could take a

You might be totally right. But Tesla's entire lineup of S3XY models only sell about 500,000 units. But more than 11 million pickup trucks are sold in the US per year. If only 1% of those sales convert to EV trucks, that's 110,000 units per year. I don't think it's unrealistic at all to say that over the next 3 or 4 years, it will hit 5% of truck sales.

Both Ford and GM has said they want be at 600,000 EVs in the next 24-36months. If this holds true, they will be at Tesla level here very soon. With a limited range of vehicles(S, 3, Y, X)...Tesla is going to have a tough time ramping up sales once the big boys come to play. Tesla will be a small time player in the EV game within 5yrs.

Ford and GM will have an EV in every market segment by 2030. I'm not seeing any real development of new Tesla vehicles(other than CT) to branch out and quite frankly the model 3, model S are getting old platform/design wise.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Let’s see….which straw man is left here for me to debunk? Ah yes, the “not enough juice” canard. No worries, generating capacity, grid buildout, and public charging network will all grow organically, hand in hand with increased EV adoption. They wouldn’t support 100% EVs in their current state, that’s correct, but the 10 years to go to EVs as 100% of new sales and the 20 years to get to 100% EV for almost total fleet will give us plenty of time for the buildout.

 

[greenne]

Let’s see….which straw man is left here for me to debunk? Ah yes, the “not enough juice” canard. No worries, generating capacity, grid buildout, and public charging network will all grow organically, hand in hand with increased EV adoption. They wouldn’t support 100% EVs in their current state, that’s correct, but the 10 years to go to EVs as 100% of new sales and the 20 years to get to 100% EV for almost total fleet will give us plenty of time for the buildout.

I don't buy the whole grid argument. Most charging occurs at home...the grid will be fine. Even if 50% or 75% of new sales are EVs..the percentage of EVs on the road will remain small as most vehicles are 10yrs old or older. It will take many years, decades for that conversion to take place.

 

[TexasGuy]

Let’s see….which straw man is left here for me to debunk? Ah yes, the “not enough juice” canard. No worries, generating capacity, grid buildout, and public charging network will all grow organically, hand in hand with increased EV adoption. They wouldn’t support 100% EVs in their current state, that’s correct, but the 10 years to go to EVs as 100% of new sales and the 20 years to get to 100% EV for almost total fleet will give us plenty of time for the buildout.

Based on what? Recent history does not seem to support that conclusion. You very well may be right, but building plants takes years and the grid is already outdated and overstressed. With the current environment, hydroelectric production in the west may be on a decline.

 

[tbinmd]

Talk about outdate electrical infrastructure? You are in Texas after all. Depends on where you live.

 

[TexasGuy]

Talk about outdate electrical infrastructure? You are in Texas after all. Depends on where you live.

OK, rub that in! However, let's look at wind energy production:

 

[Maquis]

Why? Do you care about the condition of the propane tank you get? You assume that it is tested every so often to ensure it's safe. Why would you feel different about batteries? As they approach their end of life, they'd get recycled.

Also, so you get a 'bad' battery which has only 75%-90% capacity. Why do you care? It's not yours. You replace it next charge. Worst case it's life filling up your gas tank to 3/4. You just have to stop a little sooner.

I don’t exchange propane tanks. Not so much for the reasons you mention, but those exchange tanks are only partially filled, sometimes as little as 15 pounds in a 20 pound tank. I have mine refilled at a welding supply shop and get max fill for about $8 less than an exchange.

Again, I stated “with current battery technology.” Due to the size and weight, it will take longer to swap a battery than DCFC from 20 to 80%.

 

[Sklith]

The good thing about EVs is they're crazy efficient. If you take the fuel from the gas stations, and have power stations use that fuel, you'd have more effective mileage so our net energy demand reduces. As for grid constraints, we've gone through something similar in the sunnier areas in the 70s where air conditioning took over homes.

Sure, current charging infrastructure and battery tech can't work for everyone but it won't stay that way for long. The largest hurdle here is for energy companies to invest in building out L2 chargers on streets and apartment parking lots across the country. It'll happen eventually.

As it stands today, if you have a place to charge (garage or work) daily and have a daily commute that's less than 150 miles total then EVs can work for you. Otherwise, wait. I wouldn't recommend anyone to rely on DC fast chargers for their daily commute, it sucks.

 

[Snakebitten]

Don't know exactly what the "numbers" are for the demand for EV trucks, but I do believe that for the next few years the demand outstrips the supply.

So we can debate the politics and the grid all we want, but the thread was about the demand.

 

[adoublee]

If every ICE vehicle was an EV overnight, there might be a grid problem. Infrastructure will grow to satisfy the demand. The only question will be the cost once upgrades are distributed amongst all customers.

EV truck demand - Incalculable at the point if you ask me. It will depend on experience of early adopters. EVERYONE in the game right now is making decisions based on vaporware. There is a whole second wave of demand coming once people can see, touch, and experience whatever products actually make it out into the market.

"Until charging on the road is similar to filling a car with gas, the utility of all EVs will limited" - You are not properly accounting for the ADVANTAGES of electric that anyone who has owned an EV would consider before going back fossil. Different people will weigh things differently, but I will give up a degree of recharging speed for a very seldom road trip to never stop at a gas station again or change oil. And I can have a full range daily compared to gas which always seems to be hitting E at the wrong time.

Finally hydrogen is dead for all passenger vehicles at this point, and that should be celebrated. I'll credit Elon Musk and Tesla for that even though I have bought other brands. Why would anyone want to get back into a system that depends on massive dedicated infrastructure? Electricity is the "English language" of energy transfer - basically universal in it's use. You can make some of it at home, some in your neighborhood, some in your region...

 

[CoyoteJim]

The Rivian probably appeals mostly to people who already own an EV, so Ford will be the first one out with a truck that a lot of first-time EV purchasers will be buying. There are going to be occasional mistakes made (by everyone, not just the first-time buyers), but if Ford handles the roadside assistance right that will head off a lot of negative press and personal anecdotes about charging pain with EV trucks. Ford's statement on this is:

What happens if I run out of charge on the road?
Ford Roadside Assistance has you covered in the US for 5 years/60,000 miles (whichever comes first). You can choose where you would like to have your vehicle towed and recharged within 35 miles of your vehicle location: your home, a public charge station, or an EV Certified Ford dealership. If beyond 35 miles, Ford will take you to the nearest available option."

They need to have these service trucks everywhere from day one. And it seems like since Ford can do V2V charging they would just do that, rather than tow. I have a brother-in-law and neighbor who are really interested in the Lightning but balk at the idea of buying one until they find out my experience with the range and charging infrastructure limitations. They are going to be wowed by the performance for sure...the interest is there, the demand will be there, the demand will be exponential if Ford handles the range anxiety issues.

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