Just How In Demand ARE EV Trucks

[greenne]

I offer this summary of CEO Farley's interview for two reasons:
https://insideevs.com/news/563348/ford-ev-initiatives-farley/

1. Ford is aiming to rapidly scale EV production in a way Tesla and Rivian cannot. Roughly 30k/yr(2021 EV sales)-->600k/yr in 22months. That's amazing if you think about it.

2. Ford's business plan is to capitalize on brand loyalty for sales and some ICE overlap to reduce R&D cost//production cost. They figure it is cheaper to produce and easier to sell electrified versions of the "classics" than try to convince people to embrace something new. I just believe this is a winning strategy in order to spur widespread EV adoption.

" “I think we’re one of the first to scale. We’re committed to 600,000 units in 22 months from now. What makes us different is we’re electrifying our most iconic vehicles where we sell the best. "

Mustang(MachE)-->Transit(E-Transit)--> F150(Lightning)---> Explorer(EV Explorer, 2023/2024?)--> Maverick(rumored EV in the works)--->Bronco(EV Bronco has been hinted at by Farley)

Would not be surprised to see an EV Ranger, Escape, and Expedition in the future...

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[beatle]

"Until charging on the road is similar to filling a car with gas, the utility of all EVs will limited" - You are not properly accounting for the ADVANTAGES of electric that anyone who has owned an EV would consider before going back fossil. Different people will weigh things differently, but I will give up a degree of recharging speed for a very seldom road trip to never stop at a gas station again or change oil. And I can have a full range daily compared to gas which always seems to be hitting E at the wrong time.

+1 on this. It is easy for people to take pot shots at the disadvantages of an EV compared to gas, but nobody considers the disadvantages of gas vs. EV except "saving the planet." And that's certainly not why I bought an EV. Once you've gotten a taste of the juice, it's really hard to go back.

Some people say that it's the absolute end of the world that it takes longer to charge an EV vs. filling it up with gas. That certainly hasn't been my experience, and my car only has a usable range of ~200 miles.

 

[EVBill]

+1 on this. It is easy for people to take pot shots at the disadvantages of an EV compared to gas, but nobody considers the disadvantages of gas vs. EV except "saving the planet." And that's certainly not why I bought an EV. Once you've gotten a taste of the juice, it's really hard to go back.

Some people say that it's the absolute end of the world that it takes longer to charge an EV vs. filling it up with gas. That certainly hasn't been my experience, and my car only has a usable range of ~200 miles.

There will be a lot less complaints on charging time when 800V systems become more dominant. Charging time for the Chevrolet Silverado EV that will be available 1.5 to 2 years after the Lightning will charge in half the time due to being an 800V system vs the Lightning being a 400V one. I fully expect the 2nd generation Lightning to increase range to 400 miles and allow for 800V charging.

 

[Maquis]

+1 on this. It is easy for people to take pot shots at the disadvantages of an EV compared to gas, but nobody considers the disadvantages of gas vs. EV except "saving the planet." And that's certainly not why I bought an EV. Once you've gotten a taste of the juice, it's really hard to go back.

Some people say that it's the absolute end of the world that it takes longer to charge an EV vs. filling it up with gas. That certainly hasn't been my experience, and my car only has a usable range of ~200 miles.

Yep. I can guarantee you that I spend less time at a charging station per year than anyone I know spends pumping gas. By a lot!

 

[Marshall]

I feel like we are getting wrapped up in the weeds and missing the major conceit of this post:

I think the demand for these BEV trucks is way overestimated.

My counter assumptions and data point are:

• People made these exact same arguments about demand for Tesla when they came out. Then they made the argument that Tesla would never sell another car, or couldn't be profitable after the tax credit ran out. Go to the website and try to order a non-performance Tesla and see if demand has waned. Even with 3 more factories, Tesla still isn't going to be able to catch up to demand for the foreseeable future. And why is that? See the next data point.
• I drive a Model 3, and my wife threatened to suffocate me in my sleep if I use it as a trade in on my F150L. Why? Because when others see what EV ownership is like, it becomes really hard to jump back in that dinosaur burner day after day. And it's not because of the instant torque or Autopilot or even turn signals that make farting sounds. It takes a minute, but at some point you realize that the 5 or 6 minutes per week that you save by not going to your crappy local gas station starts to add up.

Will even 50% of the current BEV Truck reservations convert to orders? Maybe not, but by the time the last conversion happens, the number of people wanting an EV truck will not have decreased, it will have increased. Remember, Ford also drastically underestimated the demand for the F150L, so they doubled production, but that still wasn't enough, so they had to double it again. They also drastically underestimated the MachE and can't keep up with demand for that either.

 

[RickLightning]

The Rivian probably appeals mostly to people who already own an EV, so Ford will be the first one out with a truck that a lot of first-time EV purchasers will be buying. There are going to be occasional mistakes made (by everyone, not just the first-time buyers), but if Ford handles the roadside assistance right that will head off a lot of negative press and personal anecdotes about charging pain with EV trucks. Ford's statement on this is:



They need to have these service trucks everywhere from day one. And it seems like since Ford can do V2V charging they would just do that, rather than tow. I have a brother-in-law and neighbor who are really interested in the Lightning but balk at the idea of buying one until they find out my experience with the range and charging infrastructure limitations. They are going to be wowed by the performance for sure...the interest is there, the demand will be there, the demand will be exponential if Ford handles the range anxiety issues.

There are no Ford Service trucks for towing. They use a 3rd party, and they call local companies, who sometimes refuse the call. We used them locally, and had responsive service, but it was one of the better local companies. People have posted how they didn't show up, didn't take the call, said they were close and they weren't... And they don't know how to get the EV into gear and onto the flatbed without damaging the transmission, or even damaging the bottom of the vehicle.

There are no trucks driving around charging up vehicles...

 

[TexasGuy]

"Until charging on the road is similar to filling a car with gas, the utility of all EVs will limited" - You are not properly accounting for the ADVANTAGES of electric that anyone who has owned an EV would consider before going back fossil. Different people will weigh things differently, but I will give up a degree of recharging speed for a very seldom road trip to never stop at a gas station again or change oil. And I can have a full range daily compared to gas which always seems to be hitting E at the wrong time.

Well, I have been driving my Model S since '19, and I will say to each their own.

I agree on the maintenance end and not having to pump gas. Those are great conveniences. I also like never having to clean my garage floor.

Conversely, every time I even think of planning a trip, I severely miss my ICE SUV. Even with FREE Tesla superchargers, I hate having to charge anywhere but at home. It is a much bigger pain than a gas pump. Even a 15 minute charge is a royal PITA and 40 minutes? Killer. At least at a gas station I can run in and grab a snack or hit the restroom and get out in less than 5 minutes. As far as chargers go, you can't just leave the car and walk off until it's fully charged, it costs about 3x my home charger, and it takes so freakin long. With regards to hitting "E" at the wrong time, for me, that's nowhere near the aggravation by the constant thinking about battery life and worrying about range and planning my drives so that I don't need to charge away from home. I know with an ICE I'm never more than a couple of minutes from a quick fill.

As for saving the earth, my contribution is negligible. While I like the idea, it is/was not a significant factor in my decision to own an EV.

Don't get me wrong. I am not a troll. I like my car, but range anxiety and charging are huge downsides. I won't even think about buying an EV with less than 325 mile stated range. To me the ideal situation now is to have a small or sporty EV for commuting and driving around town and a ICE Truck or SUV for days on the road and when I need something bigger. It just sucks to have both.

 

[Blainestang]

Both Ford and GM has said they want be at 600,000 EVs in the next 24-36months. If this holds true, they will be at Tesla level here very soon. With a limited range of vehicles(S, 3, Y, X)...Tesla is going to have a tough time ramping up sales once the big boys come to play. Tesla will be a small time player in the EV game within 5yrs.

So, Ford and GM, in 2-3 years, want to be at 60% of where Tesla already is TODAY, and somehow Tesla will be a "small time player in the EV game" within 5 years?

 

[greenne]

So, Ford and GM, in 2-3 years, want to be at 60% of where Tesla already is TODAY, and somehow Ford will be a "small time player in the EV game" within 5 years?

I think you meant to say "tesla" will be a small time player..but YES that is my prediction. Maybe not 5, but in 10 yrs for sure. There is only so far a portfolio of 4 vehicles is going to get you. Teslawill not die, there will always be a niche market.

However I do believe that Tesla's market share will continue shrinking IF Ford /GM can and actually DO what they say.

We'll see...

 

[LightningShow]

Don't know exactly what the "numbers" are for the demand for EV trucks, but I do believe that for the next few years the demand outstrips the supply.

So we can debate the politics and the grid all we want, but the thread was about the demand.

This is the important point. The demand for EV trucks isn't very high in the grand scheme of things but it's WAY higher than the supply (which is currently zero) and will be ahead of supply for quite a few years.

Even the most aggressive analysts don't expect EVs to reach 50% of new car sales until 2035. The analysis of the grid has been done, as of today the grid can handle 30% EVs and up to 50% if charging is scheduled. We're not even remotely close stressing the grid. We literally have decades to increase grid capacity before we start hitting a bottleneck in the grid.

ETA: I should add that the weak point in the grid isn't generation capacity, it's bottlenecks in the transmission infrastructure. That's a regional issue, some places will be able to handle more than 50% even with current infrastructure.

 

[Blainestang]

I think you meant to say "tesla" will be a small time player..but YES that is my prediction. Maybe not 5, but in 10 yrs for sure. There is only so far a portfolio of 4 vehicles is going to get you. Teslawill not die, there will always be a niche market.

However I do believe that Tesla's market share will continue shrinking IF Ford /GM can and actually DO what they say.

We'll see...

Yeah, if you double your timeline to 10 years, that's a whole different ballgame than 5 years. I still seriously doubt they'll be "small time" in 10 years, but there's zero chance they'll be "small time" in "within 5".

And certainly their market share will continue shrinking... it's currently ~80% in the US. That's impossible to maintain, but it would have to drop to maybe 10% to justify calling them "small time" in the EV space, which is absolutely never going to happen in 5 years.

Again, Ford and GM's *goal* is to be at 60% of where Tesla is today... but 2-3 years from now. So, after those 2-3 years, they'll still be way behind even if Tesla doesn't increase at all... despite opening 2 new factories at any moment.

So, in a maximum of 3 years, they'll have to more than double their output from 600k to 1M just to match Tesla today, AND then surpass Tesla by so much that they can justifiably be called "small time". Never going to happen.

FWIW, I started buying up Ford stock at $6 because I think they'll do very well with EVs.

 

[LightningShow]

I think you guys are underestimating the level of brand loyalty/recognition Tesla has built up, especially with younger people. Even kids. Whenever I talk about new cars with my kids (10 and 13) they want to know if I'm going to get a Tesla next. It's pretty much the only car brand they know except like Lambo and Porsche (probably because I have a Porsche).

 

[O’Majestic1’slightnigF150]

For those who do their own maintenance…. I can’t wait! I am never buying ICE cars or trucks again. Just replaced fuel pump, fuel lines solenoid to switch fuel tanks on my 2 tone ‘84 F250 for the 3rd time. That truck has about 120 horsepower and a little less than 2X that in torque. That’s just for starters. The superduty diesels have 2 completely separate cooling systems just to continue the maintenance conversation. I can’t wait! I can’t wait for an electric plane, jet skis, ATV, UTV, and tractors. I can’t wait to sit at a charging station instead of cleaning grease off my hands from working on fuel systems, cooling systems, vacuum systems, engines, transmissions, drive lines, transfer cases, belts, hoses… Those of you who don’t do your own maintenance, insert sitting in a repair shop waiting room here.

 

[Marshall]

I think you meant to say "tesla" will be a small time player..but YES that is my prediction. Maybe not 5, but in 10 yrs for sure. There is only so far a portfolio of 4 vehicles is going to get you. Tesla will not die, there will always be a niche market.

However I do believe that Tesla's market share will continue shrinking IF Ford /GM can and actually DO what they say.

We'll see...

I feel pretty confident that Tesla will be anything but a niche player long term, and the global sales numbers would tend to agree:

Automaker	2019​	2020​	2021​
Ford	5,385,972 (-10%)​	4,231,549 (-22%)​	?? (-13% US)​
GM	7,724,163 (-12%)​	6,833,592 (-11%)​	?? (-7% US)​
Tesla	365,232 (+31%)​	509,737 (+29%)​	936,172 (+46%)​

Just looking at Ford and GM, if these trends were to continue, and we assume GM and Ford losing 10% sales per year and Tesla adding 30% per year, Tesla could be selling more cars than Ford by 2025 and GM by 2026. I haven't been able to find the Ford and GM global sales numbers for 2021, their domestic numbers are down once again and both have consistently sold fewer cars than the prior year every year since 2016.

So while I don't actually believe that Tesla can maintain 30% year over year growth, they now have an annualized production capacity of 1.2 million units before Germany and Texas come online, adding another ~30%-40% capacity, so it wouldn't even be a bold prediction to believe that Tesla could be selling 1/2 as many cars as Ford annually by 2025 and be one of the top 3 US automakers (in number of units sold globally) by 2030.

We have been hearing since about 2018 that the established auto makers are going to take over EV sales at some point, but none are even putting up a fight. They are hindered by their franchised dealer models and an utter lack of innovation. Phone as a key, autopilot, over the air updates, iPad for a console - none of these things are inherently EV specific, but Tesla did what the establishment didn't / wouldn't / couldn't. And while Ford is losing ground less quickly than the other US auto manufacturers, they are still hampered by the old ideas that come with being a legacy automaker.

 

[Snakebitten]

Go ahead and guess. Extend out for a few years just based on your gut. I'm curious.

I'm not objecting to optimistic views of Teslas future, but I have to wonder if you are serious about taking Covid Era reductions in production for manufacturers like Ford and GM and extending that out to continuous reduction year after year.

The future is a very different world than the past. I get that. It's right in front of our eyes. But Ford isn't showing signs of denial. Quite the opposite. They appear to be all in on EV and dealerships have no choice but to shift where ever that takes them, regardless of how bumpy it might be currently.

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