201 Ford F-150 Lightnings Delivered to Dealers in May. 75% of Reservation Holders Are New to Ford

[astricklin]

I think that the "truck people" are not so much fans of the Lightning. Hence the forum split.

I think that once "the truck people" experience one, they are going to want one. If not for the acceleration and handling, then for the frunk.

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[PV2EV]

I think that once "the truck people" experience one, they are going to want one. If not for the acceleration and handling, then for the frunk.

And TCO (fuel, maintenance, etc...),

 

[Mr. Flibble]

I think most of them will be like this until they die when it comes to the lightning:

 

[hturnerfamily]

I think someone hit the nail on the head - as to 'why' many who have yet to even consider an 'ev' will eventually, if not QUICKLY, change their minds in a matter of just a few years - it's the MAINTENANCE equation!

Just think about not only the constant 'fuel' stops to replenish the gulping of gasoline and diesel, but all of the LEGACY parts that must be constantly maintained, cleaned, repaired, replaced, and just the everyday ability for those 'parts' to fail. There are SO MANY moving parts on a internal combustion engine, AND the TRANSMISSION, and All the FLUIDS, OILS, and maintenance items that are constants.
The EV LIGHTNING will have basically NONE of those, at least nothing to do with the powertrain.

While Tires and Brakes are likely constants between the two types of vehicles, there's little else common when it comes to all the future maintenance. No more OIL CHANGE stops, which is the most common.

Many folks will have the 'light bulb' moment, eventually.

 

[Trick]

From all the pickup guys in my fishing club there are people who are interested but worried about range towing their boats and the others that are old school and would never buy one.

 

[astricklin]

I think someone hit the nail on the head - as to 'why' many who have yet to even consider an 'ev' will eventually, if not QUICKLY, change their minds in a matter of just a few years - it's the MAINTENANCE equation!

Just think about not only the constant 'fuel' stops to replenish the gulping of gasoline and diesel, but all of the LEGACY parts that must be constantly maintained, cleaned, repaired, replaced, and just the everyday ability for those 'parts' to fail. There are SO MANY moving parts on a internal combustion engine, AND the TRANSMISSION, and All the FLUIDS, OILS, and maintenance items that are constants.
The EV LIGHTNING will have basically NONE of those, at least nothing to do with the powertrain.

While Tires and Brakes are likely constants between the two types of vehicles, there's little else common when it comes to all the future maintenance. No more OIL CHANGE stops, which is the most common.

Many folks will have the 'light bulb' moment, eventually.

Ya but it

From all the pickup guys in my fishing club there are people who are interested but worried about range towing their boats and the others that are old school and would never buy one.

Depending on the size and weight of the boat, if they are going under 100 miles round trip, they should be fine. The smaller the boat, the better the range

 

[beatle]

I think someone hit the nail on the head - as to 'why' many who have yet to even consider an 'ev' will eventually, if not QUICKLY, change their minds in a matter of just a few years - it's the MAINTENANCE equation!

Just think about not only the constant 'fuel' stops to replenish the gulping of gasoline and diesel, but all of the LEGACY parts that must be constantly maintained, cleaned, repaired, replaced, and just the everyday ability for those 'parts' to fail. There are SO MANY moving parts on a internal combustion engine, AND the TRANSMISSION, and All the FLUIDS, OILS, and maintenance items that are constants.
The EV LIGHTNING will have basically NONE of those, at least nothing to do with the powertrain.

While Tires and Brakes are likely constants between the two types of vehicles, there's little else common when it comes to all the future maintenance. No more OIL CHANGE stops, which is the most common.

Many folks will have the 'light bulb' moment, eventually.

Just to bring this one back to the middle, there are plenty of expensive things to fail on an EV that an ICE vehicle does not have: HV battery, DC/DC converter, battery charger(s), dual motors w/inverters, dual transmissions, battery heating/cooling system components, charging port, battery energy control module, HV battery contactors, HV battery fuse, etc. Fortunately Ford has a pretty good warranty here that includes these for 8 years / 100k miles.

Fluid changes are not particularly expensive or really all that frequent unless you're talking about a high end sports car. Synthetic oil changes twice a year is all most people need, even if they are piling on 20k miles. Many other fluids are "lifetime fill" or have very long service intervals. It's worth noting. however, that you never have to do "the big one" with an EV which involves the accessory belts and timing belt/water pump, though that is only after 100k miles anyway.

In contrast to ICE vehicles, I would recommend brake servicing at least every other year on an EV. At least remove the pads, clean up the brackets and reapply new grease. I found the pads on my Model S front brakes corroded and seized before its 5th birthday.

Suspension, steering, infotainment systems, HVAC, interior components, and other body hardware is largely the same between EVs and ICE. Overall reliability, not a sparse maintenance schedule, is still key to a low TCO with any vehicle regardless of its powertrain.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

My estimate is we are around ~177,842 EVs.
171,588(est thru Apr 22) + 6254(May sales)= 177,842

As stated below just an educated guess and does not include PHEVs which could chip away at that number.

That means on the order of 22,000 before ford hits the cap. That means if they hold at 6000 EVs a month they could hit the 200k limit in Q3 2022, which would mean full credit Q3/Q4 2022, 50% credit Q1/Q2 2023. If they can somehow hold out until October..then everything shifts to the right 3 months.(That seems unlikely).

Of course all bets are off if Congress somehow passes new/updated EV credits(fingers crossed)

Below is what I posted at the end of Apr 2022--
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Update: As the end of April, Ford sold 10,500 Mach E and 1500 E Transit EVs..bringing the 2022 yearly total sold to ~12,000.
US: Ford Mustang Mach-E Sales Reached A New Record In April 2022 (insideevs.com)

If we add that to the 159,588 sold up to 12/31/2021....the magic number is now sitting around 171,588.
IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)

As a reminder under the current EV tax credit rules, the credits will begin to phase out the 2nd quarter AFTER Ford reaches 200k EVs sold. Based on the current rate that's probably q3 or possibly q4 this year. That means the credit would possibly still be in play at the full rate for all of 2022 deliveries and possibly the beginning of the 2023 deliveries.

Notes: The 2022 total does NOT include sales of Ford escape/Lincoln Corsair PHEVs which count towards the 200k limit..altough the numbers appear to be low. Timing assumes Ford stays of the order of roughly 15k Lightnings for MY 22.
--------------------------------------------

As long as Ford doesn't sell 22,000'ish EVs in June, we are solidly in Q3 before they hit 200,000

If we use the estimate of 178k vehicles as of 06/1, that leaves 22k vehicles. The Mach-E has been flipping back and forth with a projected 5,000 vehicles in June. That leaves 17,000. With only 15,000 vehicles in the first 2022 MY F150L, every single one could be delivered in June and still leave a 2,000 vehicle buffer. So at this point, it is unlikely for us to hit 200k vehicles in Q2.

Along the same lines, we have very little chance of hitting Q4. MY23 starts in Q4 IIRC, meaning all 15,000 should be delivered by end of Q3 - order tracker shows a bunch of last week Aug builds, no Sept builds. The Mach-E will have a projected 20,000 additional units produced by then, putting us at a projected 213,000 by the end of Sept, and that's ignoring PHEV.

Based on the above, it's pretty certain Ford has engineered it for us to hit 200k vehicles in Q3. Meaning it's safe to say at this point - barring any new laws - every MY22 F150L will get the full tax credit.

Since the credits starts reducing the quarter after which 200,000 is hit. It's safe to say at this point that if you get a Ford EV this year, you will get the full tax credit. If you end up taking delivery in 2023 your tax credit will be reduced. You will be eligible for a reduced tax credit in 2023. Taking delivery in 2024 will result in no tax credit at all.

 

[sotek2345]

If we use the estimate of 178k vehicles as of 06/1, that leaves 22k vehicles. The Mach-E has been flipping back and forth with a projected 5,000 vehicles in June. That leaves 17,000. With only 15,000 vehicles in the first 2022 MY F150L, every single one could be delivered in June and still leave a 2,000 vehicle buffer. So at this point, it is unlikely for us to hit 200k vehicles in Q2.

Along the same lines, we have very little chance of hitting Q4. MY23 starts in Q4 IIRC, meaning all 15,000 should be delivered by end of Q3 - order tracker shows a bunch of last week Aug builds, no Sept builds. The Mach-E will have a projected 20,000 additional units produced by then, putting us at a projected 213,000 by the end of Sept, and that's ignoring PHEV.

Based on the above, it's pretty certain Ford has engineered it for us to hit 200k vehicles in Q3. Meaning it's safe to say at this point - barring any new laws - every MY22 F150L will get the full tax credit.

Since the credits starts reducing the quarter after which 200,000 is hit. It's safe to say at this point that if you get a Ford EV this year, you will get the full tax credit. If you end up taking delivery in 2023 your tax credit will be reduced. You will be eligible for a reduced tax credit in 2023. Taking delivery in 2024 will result in no tax credit at all.

I agree with the overall result, but please note that many 2022 Lightnings have not been scheduled, so there will be a bunch of September and October build dates popping up eventually. Those deliveries will hopefully all be complete by the end of December, but that is not locked in. 2021 Mach-e's were still being delivered into March and April of this year.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

I agree with the overall result, but please note that many 2022 Lightnings have not been scheduled, so there will be a bunch of September and October build dates popping up eventually. Those deliveries will hopefully all be complete by the end of December, but that is not locked in. 2021 Mach-e's were still being delivered into March and April of this year.

That's fair enough, but even in that situation if they keep pumping it out at current rates - 10-11,000 Mach-E's every 2 months and assuming they completely stop production on F150L; we're still looking at 20-22,000 units by end of September, putting us at 198-200k units. That's without any PHEVs or F150Ls. Chances are still pretty high the 200k mark will happen in Q3.

 

[sotek2345]

That's fair enough, but even in that situation if they keep pumping it out at current rates - 10-11,000 Mach-E's every 2 months and assuming they completely stop production on F150L; we're still looking at 20-22,000 units by end of September, putting us at 198-200k units. That's without any PHEVs or F150Ls. Chances are still pretty high the 200k mark will happen in Q3.

Definitely agree - Q3 is the right timing. I just hope that means all MY 2022 Lightnings get the full credit (and don't slip delivery to 2023)

 

[Yellow Buddy]

Definitely agree - Q3 is the right timing. I just hope that means all MY 2022 Lightnings get the full credit (and don't slip delivery to 2023)

It’s such a small run that I don’t see that happening. If they can’t deliver 15,000 units by end of year. There’s 0 chance they’ll be able to hit 50,000 units next year.

They only need 2500/month and even Rivian is doing that with a factory that’s way behind on technology and less supply chain leverage.

 

[juzman]

My last Ford was a 1979 Mint Green Fiesta, so yeah I answered I was new Mine is supposed to be going into production starting next week!! Woooooo

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