Is the "used" market normal for F150 depreciation at this point? Or is it worse?

[Fordskeptic]

I’m thinking the same thing, wondering in 3 to 4 years what’s the value going to be. I’ll never keep it long term especially when in those 3-4 years the tech moves forward.

Hit me up in 3-4 yrs. I like the F150L, but cannot afford new.

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[sotek2345]

I’m thinking the same thing, wondering in 3 to 4 years what’s the value going to be. I’ll never keep it long term especially when in those 3-4 years the tech moves forward.

~ 4-5 years was my original plan - then trade for a Gen 2 or another EV truck if other options are out there. However, I am also considering keeping the Lightning long term and getting a smaller "fun" EV car (i.e. Mini Electric) once it is paid of for daily commuting and runabout duties.

No idea what I will do.

 

[s_c]

I’m thinking the same thing, wondering in 3 to 4 years what’s the value going to be. I’ll never keep it long term especially when in those 3-4 years the tech moves forward.

Call me crazy but I bet the torque and acceleration gets nerfed for non-performance models in the next gen. That's normally kept as a luxury feature performance vehicles. Sure the Lariats and up are in the Luxury price range but still, Ford doesn't need all their EVs to perform as good as SVT / Raptor vehicles. I think they came out with it to make a splash and demonstrate how awesome EV tech is but 2nd gens will be more practical until you get to performance and luxury trims.

Maybe they'll do an F-150E which will be your basic F-150 in electric and then F-150L will be a SVT/Raptor type offering.

And I think both will be great! I'm just planning on enjoying mine for a long time. Picked up the 10/125k from Granger and hope that a good amount if DIYable by 2034, maybe even battery upgrades. It's already amazing the consumer tools that are available for interfacing with these computers, etc. Kids then may be able to reprogram MCUs like we installed subwoofers back in 2002.

 

[jimfigler]

~ 4-5 years was my original plan - then trade for a Gen 2 or another EV truck if other options are out there. However, I am also considering keeping the Lightning long term and getting a smaller "fun" EV car (i.e. Mini Electric) once it is paid of for daily commuting and runabout duties.

No idea what I will do.

I thought the same thing.

 

[pc500]

For sale boards are "private party" pricing - different than the actual wholesale pricing I have been monitoring.

MMR pricing shows SR Lightnings going for about $68K while the ER is going for around $75K on average (5.0 condition).

Used prices are starting to rise after the "winter / end of year / before tax refund" time.

OTOH local dealers that have new customer abandoned ordered Lightnings are going for $10K-$20K over MSRP and still moving - but that's in Los Angeles county....

That is very good data, thank you. I'd actually say online auction sites (carsandbids/bat) closely resembles these numbers now.

We are in somewhat unprecedented times with major MSRP increases,

Kind of a skewed comparison. The Rivian’s current MSRP is mid 90s. They’re selling for mid 80s on the private market with no miles. If you have miles on it, the selling price is even less.

I have been looking to trade for either a Platinum or Lariat ER and my trade in quotes for my R1T has been between 60k-75k.

Point is, they’re about the same. The problem isn’t the truck. The problem is interest rates. A car loan is sitting at 8-9% That suppresses the amount of people who can afford the vehicle. Then you throw in people who walked away from new orders, people who thought they would flip and the used market starts competing with itself.

What is making

Kind of a skewed comparison. The Rivian’s current MSRP is mid 90s. They’re selling for mid 80s on the private market with no miles. If you have miles on it, the selling price is even less.

I have been looking to trade for either a Platinum or Lariat ER and my trade in quotes for my R1T has been between 60k-75k.

Point is, they’re about the same. The problem isn’t the truck. The problem is interest rates. A car loan is sitting at 8-9% That suppresses the amount of people who can afford the vehicle. Then you throw in people who walked away from new orders, people who thought they would flip and the used market starts competing with itself.

What is making you trade from the R1T to the Lightning? Just curious.

 

[lightspeed]

I’m thinking the same thing, wondering in 3 to 4 years what’s the value going to be. I’ll never keep it long term especially when in those 3-4 years the tech moves forward.

Hard to predict. Although inflation might be cooling, I don't expect battery prices to drop significantly in 3 years because demand for them is increasing. If the ICE supply chain gets back to normal we could see discounts again, but they are still going to be expensive.

Let's say the Lightning drops 30% in 3 years, which would be totally normal depreciation, Lariat ER with max tow is $89K now and basically comes with all of the features that Ford makes, let's assume that the price doesn't change because of competition and consumer weakness. The used value would be $62K.

So the question is, will buyers in 3 years find value in a loaded F-150, 131kWh truck at $62K compared to the equivalent used ICE Lariat at $54K ($77K new) or other EV trucks? It depends on:

- Will consumers have confidence in the batteries/drivetrain? So far, good EVs tend to hold their value because their drivetrains don't wear out like ICE vehicles.
- Will battery degradation be acceptable (In a Tesla I would expect less than 5% degradation if cared for. The Lightning is an unknown.)
- What are the alternatives and their costs? Silverado EV is going to be expensive. Cybertruck is an unknown. RAM EV....lol
- Gas/electric prices ($7 gas will change minds)
- State of the charger network (having Superchargers coming soon will be a big confidence boost)
- What are the EV rebates in 3 years?

So would a buyer rather have a used $62K Lariat ER in 3 years when a new Pro with the SR battery will be pretty close to the same price? Silverado EV WT3 is going to be $75K+ NOT with the 400 mile battery.

Probably the real wildcard is truck buyer perception and if EV trucks will overcome the (true) bias that they can't do all the truck things or if there is a large enough buyer base for trucks that have car-like utility plus a bed.

 

[pc500]

Some of the comments here are en"lightning". To be fair, I expect depreciation, but I wanted some confidence we would hit 60% residual after 3 years (the original lease target, and more or less on par with gas f-150).

The 0-mile used market being so far from current MSRP is concerning, but I can only hope there will be upword pressure on the price with new production costing more.

You're right, I'm skewed a little because I can pickup a R1T (new) at 75k and Ford didn't hold my price on the F150. The produce is good, but as a preorder from before the annoucement finished, I'm a little disappointed.

 

[Zaptor]

The for sale forums on this message board.

Sounds like wishful thinking. I just looked and Lariat ERs in the classified section here appear to be over MSRP on 22s and you have to remember that many will have qualified for $7500+ in rebates as well. Can you link to fire sale trucks as you describe?

 

[pc500]

Sounds like wishful thinking. I just looked and Lariat ERs in the classified section here appear to be over MSRP on 22s and you have to remember that many will have qualified for $7500+ in rebates as well. Can you link to fire sale trucks as you describe?

https://www.f150lightningforum.com/...ariat-er-511a-package-and-bedliner-78k.14487/

https://carsandbids.com/search?q=Ford F-150 Lightning

 

[Maquis]

Call me crazy but I bet the torque and acceleration gets nerfed for non-performance models in the next gen. That's normally kept as a luxury feature performance vehicles. Sure the Lariats and up are in the Luxury price range but still, Ford doesn't need all their EVs to perform as good as SVT / Raptor vehicles. I think they came out with it to make a splash and demonstrate how awesome EV tech is but 2nd gens will be more practical until you get to performance and luxury trims.

Maybe they'll do an F-150E which will be your basic F-150 in electric and then F-150L will be a SVT/Raptor type offering.

And I think both will be great! I'm just planning on enjoying mine for a long time. Picked up the 10/125k from Granger and hope that a good amount if DIYable by 2034, maybe even battery upgrades. It's already amazing the consumer tools that are available for interfacing with these computers, etc. Kids then may be able to reprogram MCUs like we installed subwoofers back in 2002.

An SR will likely be noticeably slower off the line once it gets the LFP battery. I don’t think you’ll need to wait for next gen.

 

[Zaptor]

https://www.f150lightningforum.com/...ariat-er-511a-package-and-bedliner-78k.14487/

https://carsandbids.com/search?q=Ford F-150 Lightning

$78k is probably MSRP on that build, mine was $79. After the rebates he's still ahead. Doesn't really support the sensational assertion imo

 

[pc500]

$78k is probably MSRP on that build, mine was $79. After the rebates he's still ahead. Doesn't really support the sensational assertion imo

2022 and 2023s are transacting at basically, identical prices. The MSRP is now higher and buyers aren't changing their behavior based on model year.

 

[Zaptor]

2022 and 2023s are transacting at basically, identical prices. The MSRP is now higher and buyers aren't changing their behavior based on model year.

Lol of course they are, because there is no $7500 rebate on an $80k+ 2023 ER (which is literally all of them) and they've stripped out half a dozen conveniences and features!

 

[pc500]

Lol of course they are, because there is no $7500 rebate on an $80k+ 2023 ER (which is literally all of them) and they've stripped out half a dozen conveniences and features!

Yeah, the features are annoying, but IMHO, the only big loss is the heated steering wheel. The others I'm indifferent about.

 

[Zaptor]

Yeah, the features are annoying, but IMHO, the only big loss is the heated steering wheel. The others I'm indifferent about.

I tow and haul a fair bit so the scales and chmsl camera delete would be tough for me. I got my 22 ER when it appeared that 23s both XLT and Lariat wouldn't qualify for rebates; the features mine has that I didn't even know at that time would be deleted are kind of priceless to me... I love my truck and foresee long ownership, but Ford either fucked up with pricing 23s over the rebate limit OR and this is a very big OR... They want to reduce demand for batteries and trucks they simply can't build enough of or are building at a loss.

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