Ford will postpone about $12 billion in EV investment as buyers become more cautious

[02Reaper]

@Ford Motor Company

It’s so simple. EV adoption defunds the countries/entities that are trying to do “us” harm.

Pitch it that way to get out from under the political BS. We all chip in to defund the terrorists. That’s an easier sell. Also lose the Chinese battery suppliers!

Next, the early adopter crowd is waiting to see what comes next. The Lightning is a great truck but has range issues. Those that bought into the Standard Range battery will take a serious haircut if they try to sell. Even the Extended Range has issues because the highway range just isn’t sufficient given the current charging infrastructure.

Many of us are waiting to see what the Cybertruck range/price is before pulling the trigger on any of our EV truck reservations.

Lastly Farley shot Ford in the foot with five things:

1) Not honoring the reservation date price for those who sent in their $100. They did it for the MachEs!
2a) The ‘23s cost more and - wait for it - came with less gear making a purchase a head scratcher. Most of the ‘23 reservations were dropped because of this.
2b) The people who actually bought ‘23s at higher prices were bent over not only by the higher prices but again by the subsequent price reduction with no retroactive relief! How to win friends and influence people - NOT!
3) The ‘25 was pitched publicly too early including how great it would be with better range and lower cost. Did Farley ever hear of the Osborne (Computer) effect? All the smart people with money to spend thought: “I’ll wait for that one!” Of course sales tanked.
4) Next it was announced the ‘24 will come with the new and improved heat pump instead of resistive heating installed in the ‘22s and ‘23s! Why would anyone go through with ‘23 order when they were just told their truck is basically obsolete? Osborne effect part 2!
5) Dealers charging markup over MSRP. Sure makes it hard to compete with Tesla!

To fix some of these disastrous moves I suggest the following:

1) Let people know a longer range battery (400+ miles) will be available for the their existing Lightnings at a future date (may require removal of spare tire under truck). The price will factor in a credit for the existing battery (Which will be repurposed).
2) People who paid the higher ‘23 price will have that difference credited to the new battery price.
3) People who paid past dealer markups will have the markup credited against the new battery.
4) Parts removed on the ‘22s and ‘23s will be installed for the cost credited on those Monroney stickers.
5) Bring back Atlas Blue!
6) Make the big screen an option on ALL trims. Truck buyers want physical buttons!

If Ford takes these steps and also tells customers to not pay dealer markups going forward, the existing Lightnings will sell very well!

rant over!

Ford has way too many options, and way too many vehicles. Trim a lot of that fat and offer fewer vehicles with options that people want and can afford. You don't have to redesign 20 different vehicles every 4 years. Do a redesign every 10 years. If the government wants to transition to EV's or whatever, it should drop the subsidies for oil and put that money towards another infrastructure. Not everyone will transition to Electric. It's simply not for everyone.

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[luebri]

Other than pure acceleration, I still don’t get the value of an EV over an ICE truck? Acceleration and torque is insane and addictive but not spending $60k for it. At $40k-$7.5k, I was willing to write a check but if I want a daily driver that checks all the boxes, hard to argue buying an EV vs a Powerboost.

pls educate me if I am missing something

For me, I would only drive a full size cab half ton pick up. So that is what I will compare against, and the only fair comparison is against a new ICE truck if talking about a new lightning. A power boost in the same trim is very close in price and last I looked more money after you factor Lightning tax credits.


So yes, the acceleration is amazing, but furthermore the response and pure linear reaction of the throttle is amazing. (I.E. you don’t know how sloppy a transmission is until you drive an ev)

Also gas savings are real. I save ~$200/month compare to my 2017 1/2 ton Nissan Titan that I loved.

Other benefits…

Handling. The low center of gravity/central weight distribution provides a better handling 1/2 ton truck.

Convenience/comfort. No more gas station runs and having the vehicle scheduled to be toasty warm every morning in the winter is super nice. Being able to temp controls your cabin without any exhaust / noise has advantages in other scenarios as well.

Storage. Don’t underestimate the value of the frunk.

Pro power. I think auto house backup is an expensive carnival act for most, but the regular pro power is still very useful and nice to have a portable 131kwh power plant at my convenience.

Long term maintenance savings - oil changes, etc.

 

[MM in SouthTX]

Where I’m at, gas is $4.50-5 and electricity is 8c a kWh.

You live in perhaps the most ideal place for cost savings. You have cheap hydroelectric generation in that area, and very expensive gasoline.

Are you sure you are including the other charges on your electricity bill?
Are you including your charging done on the road? Unless you have a big daily round trip commute, it's hard to get to 1,700 mi./month without charging on the road.

With gasoline in TX averaging $3/gal. the past year, and me driving 1,100 mi./month, I recently calculated about $1,800 in savings in year one. I included an estimate of my fast charging in the equation, and threw in a few oil changes to offset that.

 

[TexasEdition]

The Pro is very attractive.

I've heard that they sell quickly, and that fleet buyers can't get enough of them. I'd like to see Ford build a lot of them so more ordinary people start getting the EV experience. That will change the underlying opinion.

Have you driven a Ford...Lately?

 

[RickLightning]

Test drives are the key but the problem is, if your Ford do you really want to convert a $20k profit (ICE BUYER) into a $20k loss (EV buyer) for market share if EVS may or may not be the future?!? So interesting…

This isn't a valid comparison. You are looking at the broad statement that Ford loses money on every EV sold, and attributing that loss to one incremental EV sold. Ford's Model e division loses $X dollars this year, next year, ... The incremental loss or profit to produce one more vehicle is nowhere near $20k.

 

[ThomasNC]

Since we are talking about why EVs aren't "taking off" I'll throw my opinion out there. EVs are too complicated for the average consumer. 50 different charging speeds. You need to have an app so you can set your maximum charging level, your departure time, plan a trip, whatever. Window sticker says 240 miles of range, but I'm only supposed to charge to 90% so that's 216 miles of range, better not get on the highway or that is going to knock you down to about 185. Better stop at the fast charger. Where is it? Does it work? Is there a line? Which one of these plugs do I need? Ok I know which plug I need, but should I go to the one labeled 60kw? 150kw? 350kw? Oh man, do I need to pull in or back in? Left parking spot or right? This charger has a ridiculously short cable so I better make sure I am close enough. Ok I'm plugged in can I just swipe my credit card and charge? No way buddy better download one of a dozen different apps and activate the charge. Ohh man this is going to take 30 minutes, I better run to McDonalds but I hope I'm not gone too long because then I'll be holding up the charger.

Probably doesn't seem like too much to all of us here, but what about your mom or even your grandma? What about the 90% of people that have no interest in knowing anything about how their cars work at all? It has to be made simpler so every one can manage without a hassle.

Stop pushing 32, 48, or 80 amp at home charging. You can run a 20 amp 240v circuit on 12/2 Romex that tons of people already have run to garage outlets or outside outlets. Change a breaker and outlet(s) and you can charge at 16 amps. Seems slow when you say it takes 30 hours to charge from 0 to 100 but you don't charge from 0 to 100 except for very rare circumstances. At 16 amps you can charge 100 miles of range in a Lightning in a 12 hour overnight and 150-200 miles other more average EVs.

EVs are a bad choice for frequent maybe even occasional medium to long distance towing. Stop pretending anything else is true. Here's the thing, most people don't tow, and most people that do tow don't tow long distances. If you have an RV or a car hauling business don't buy an EV.

Stop emphasizing subscription services on EVs. People already have this idea that big brother can somehow control your EV better than they can an ICE vehicle. As if their car can run without a computer and OnStar hasn't been out with commercials of them disabling vehicles in the middle of a car chase for 20 years. Instead emphasize the flexibility of fueling an EV, you can charge at home from the grid, you can charge at home from solar, you can charge on the road, you can even charge from a gasoline generator if it comes right down to it. In an apocalypses/doomsday situation you are going to have a lot better chance at making you own electricity than you are at making your own gasoline, I assure you.

TLDR: Stop treating EVs like they are some kind of super special future spaceships and treat them like cars while focusing on making them easy for my grandma to use.

 

[Its PJ Bia]

I think you all might be over thinking this. I don't know of many people who would want to sign on the dotted line for a $70k+ vehicle (maybe more if the dealer ads on ADM) at 7-8% interest. I know Ford has an incentive now to try and get those older models off the lot, but if they produced more pros at $50k instead of $90k platinums, it might be a different story now. Chevy is having to deal with their decision to bring out their top of the line model first for $105k, and now the realize because of the market conditions, not a whole lot of people are willing to sign up for $105k for 8% interest.

Ford fumbled a few things along the way, but I don't believe thats really an EV specific issue. For a lot of people, evs fit into their current lifestyle pretty well, especially if they are a 2 car household and the other car is gas powered.

 

[TexasEdition]

Grandma and Grandpa had problems getting started with computers, but now they are on Facebook all day.

Many grandkids, nieces and nephews helped get them started back in the day. Many via a Mac instead of a homebrew gaming PC. Nowadays, new grandparents have been using computers at work for decades and it is easy at home.

We are still in the EV era of helping our family members who are "approaching middle age" get a simple charger installed in the garage/carport so they can use it for their grocery getter/home depot mulch run/church drive use. Keep it simple. They will be bragging about it to their friends soon enough.

No need for a wifi connected 100A charger that runs only between 1 AM to 4 AM. Forget about road tripping and charging for free at the EA stations at Walmart/Target.

 

[TheBigBezo]

I think it squarely comes down to high prices and high rates. I'm in my late 20s and plenty of friends of mine are not interested in new vehicles at all, it's like homes, if you could get a good rate, then it's just not the climate to buy. Despite being one of the proud '23 sucker's who spent an arm and a leg, I was able to get a sub 4% loan so now I plan on driving the Lightning well past being paid off, because it doesn't make sense to take on high interest debt when the truck works wonderfully.

I had originally eye' d transitioning to the next family of Truck EVs (hopefully Ranger) but like I said, high rates and abysmal trade in on my current truck will have me sticking with it for some time, which I don't mind, I do love driving it.

The only way Ford attracts new people is going to be lower prices which will be difficult. Teslas are only as cheap as they are because they insanely minimalistic/cheap and convinced buyers that's actually a luxury. I've spent a decent amount of time in MY Performances and there's a noticeable drop-off in true luxury features compared to the Lariat.

 

[ThomasNC]

think you all might be over thinking this. I don't know of many people who would want to sign on the dotted line for a $70k+ vehicle (maybe more if the dealer ads on ADM) at 7-8% interest. I know Ford has an incentive now to try and get those older models off the lot, but if they produced more pros at $50k instead of $90k platinums, it might be a different story now. Chevy is having to deal with their decision to bring out their top of the line model first for $105k, and now the realize because of the market conditions, not a whole lot of people are willing to sign up for $105k for 8% interest.

You're not wrong here. I've had my Lightning a little under 2 weeks. MSRP 73k, Financed about half of that at 7.05%. If I had the interest rate I did on the last car I bought in 2021 I could have got an ER for the same payment. Majority of people negotiate payments and when they are going to get a vehicle comparable to what they already have but the payment has an extra hundred or two every month it is going to be a hard sell. 60k dollars moving from 3% to 7% is $200 a month increased interest. That is going to destroy any fuel savings you thought you would be getting. To me the best pitch for EVs is $$$ savings and that doesn't work with 80k trucks and 7% interest.

 

[mme_and_lightning]

Other than pure acceleration, I still don’t get the value of an EV over an ICE truck? Acceleration and torque is insane and addictive but not spending $60k for it. At $40k-$7.5k, I was willing to write a check but if I want a daily driver that checks all the boxes, hard to argue buying an EV vs a Powerboost.

pls educate me if I am missing something

I can't explain preference. So you need to take a drive.

I have an MME and a Lightning. I will always have one ICE but that's it. EV is smooth and quiet. I don't need to visit gas stations (ugh!). I fill up at home and with 300+ miles of range never visit another charger.

So for me, my question is: I don't get the value of an ICE truck unless you tow? Can you educate me? To me they are noisy, smelly, jerky transmissions and make me visit gas stations.

 

[mme_and_lightning]

How much extra are you paying in (purchase price - resale value) to get back $3500 per year? What is the break even point?
It is great that it works for you with low electric costs at home charging. I’m driving a 20 year old gas truck that I keep fixing and driving. An old EV truck feels like at the mercy of Ford…

Why does an old EV leave you at the mercy of Ford?

Please provide context for old ICE vs old EV?

 

[FirstF150InCasco]

Not surprising. Demand has just fallen off a cliff. It’s going to be one of the most fascinating business spectacles of all time watching how legacy auto handles this over the next 30 years. I for one never think ICE will go away, and think there is a happy place for both, but I am surprised how fast the EV movement has hit a wall.

Reading Great grandson Ford lament about how political ev’s has become is interesting, accurate, and a shame all in one. Both political sides to blame on that one, but I do empathize with legacy auto trying to navigate that complex part of the equation.

My opinion, evs never take majority market share if it’s mostly a “climate” proposition. They need to push the performance and other benefits and footnote the climate stuff.

Test drives are the key but the problem is, if your Ford do you really want to convert a $20k profit (ICE BUYER) into a $20k loss (EV buyer) for market share if EVS may or may not be the future?!? So interesting…

I agree in particular with these statements: "They need to push the performance and other benefits and footnote the climate stuff." And "Test drives are the key..."

 

[RickLightning]

Since we are talking about why EVs aren't "taking off" I'll throw my opinion out there. EVs are too complicated for the average consumer. 50 different charging speeds. You need to have an app so you can set your maximum charging level, your departure time, plan a trip, whatever. Window sticker says 240 miles of range, but I'm only supposed to charge to 90% so that's 216 miles of range, better not get on the highway or that is going to knock you down to about 185. Better stop at the fast charger. Where is it? Does it work? Is there a line? Which one of these plugs do I need? Ok I know which plug I need, but should I go to the one labeled 60kw? 150kw? 350kw? Oh man, do I need to pull in or back in? Left parking spot or right? This charger has a ridiculously short cable so I better make sure I am close enough. Ok I'm plugged in can I just swipe my credit card and charge? No way buddy better download one of a dozen different apps and activate the charge. Ohh man this is going to take 30 minutes, I better run to McDonalds but I hope I'm not gone too long because then I'll be holding up the charger.

Probably doesn't seem like too much to all of us here, but what about your mom or even your grandma? What about the 90% of people that have no interest in knowing anything about how their cars work at all? It has to be made simpler so every one can manage without a hassle.

Stop pushing 32, 48, or 80 amp at home charging. You can run a 20 amp 240v circuit on 12/2 Romex that tons of people already have run to garage outlets or outside outlets. Change a breaker and outlet(s) and you can charge at 16 amps. Seems slow when you say it takes 30 hours to charge from 0 to 100 but you don't charge from 0 to 100 except for very rare circumstances. At 16 amps you can charge 100 miles of range in a Lightning in a 12 hour overnight and 150-200 miles other more average EVs.

EVs are a bad choice for frequent maybe even occasional medium to long distance towing. Stop pretending anything else is true. Here's the thing, most people don't tow, and most people that do tow don't tow long distances. If you have an RV or a car hauling business don't buy an EV.

Stop emphasizing subscription services on EVs. People already have this idea that big brother can somehow control your EV better than they can an ICE vehicle. As if their car can run without a computer and OnStar hasn't been out with commercials of them disabling vehicles in the middle of a car chase for 20 years. Instead emphasize the flexibility of fueling an EV, you can charge at home from the grid, you can charge at home from solar, you can charge on the road, you can even charge from a gasoline generator if it comes right down to it. In an apocalypses/doomsday situation you are going to have a lot better chance at making you own electricity than you are at making your own gasoline, I assure you.

TLDR: Stop treating EVs like they are some kind of super special future spaceships and treat them like cars while focusing on making them easy for my grandma to use.

First, none of us are privy to the data that Ford, GM, and others have. So our conclusions or theories are really just guesses.

Second, many of the issues that we all experience, like difficulty charging, the majority of people have no awareness of. Go speak to people at the chargers, i.e. the ones that have bought a vehicle (not the ones that haven't and are clueless to these issues). Many don't understand the basics. Like the Bolt owners that were at 98% and waited to get to 100% "because you have to". Or the Bolt renter that didn't want an EV, tried to give it back at another Avis location that refused to take it (we don't want it), and had no idea what he was doing.

Yes, there are complex things to understand if you own an EV. No, most non-EV owners aren't even aware of them.

I think you all might be over thinking this. I don't know of many people who would want to sign on the dotted line for a $70k+ vehicle (maybe more if the dealer ads on ADM) at 7-8% interest. I know Ford has an incentive now to try and get those older models off the lot, but if they produced more pros at $50k instead of $90k platinums, it might be a different story now. Chevy is having to deal with their decision to bring out their top of the line model first for $105k, and now the realize because of the market conditions, not a whole lot of people are willing to sign up for $105k for 8% interest.

Ford fumbled a few things along the way, but I don't believe thats really an EV specific issue. For a lot of people, evs fit into their current lifestyle pretty well, especially if they are a 2 car household and the other car is gas powered.

This is the main issue. Much of it isn't even the interest rate, it's the PAYMENT size.

I once promised I would never spend over $20k on a vehicle, and derided those that did. Then I spent $32k on a truck, most expensive purchase except for a house. Then I bought a Mach-E and then a Lightning.

When we bought our first home, my father in-law tried to explain to me to make extra payments to pay it off (a simple plant worker with a high school degree). His only mortgage ever was $7,000. He sold his house around 1984 for $30,000. His final salary before he retired was less than I made coming out of undergrad. When I told him my mortgage payment, he stared at me.

When you buy an $80,000 truck, and finance it over 6 years, at 0% interest, the monthly payment is $1,111. Many people cannot comprehend that kind of a payment on anything, or afford it.

Some talk about breaking even on the vehicle. Sure, do that math.

We own a Mach-E, a Lightning, and paid off our house this year (due to rising interest rates vs. alternatives in the market). We are not typical consumers. We know that we're in the single digit percentages of wealth, worked hard to get here, and are thankful for what we have.

When we go to EV shows in the area, many of the people with questions come with bike helmets on their heads, or are clearly former hippies (jibe intended). They are more into not having a car than getting an EV, and if they bought an EV it would be the most economical, not a Mach-E or Lightning. The people that bought these vehicles are largely early adopters. Now, the others are seeing how expensive they are and not buying, pure and simple.

Spending $140k on two vehicles is simply stupid. We're retired, and can afford it. It's fun. We support the move to EVs, and to cleaner energy. But it's not a good financial decision.

I'd also point out that many are very clueless when it comes to many things, including finances. Gas prices go up, and people sell a truck and buy a 43mpg gas vehicle "to save money". The cost of gas on a weekly basis they can't absorb. Think about that.

Nearly half of the country has no retirement savings. 50% of those between 55 and 66 have none. Yet you see some people driving vehicles they clearly can't afford. Now, you jack the interest rate and raise the payment and they go "I can't afford $X,XXX a month".

 

[lakeguy55]

Spending $140k on two vehicles is simply stupid. We're retired, and can afford it. It's fun. We support the move to EVs, and to cleaner energy. But it's not a good financial decision.

You summed up my situation perfectly. Buying my Lightning was the dumbest financial decision I've ever made. I always looked at vehicles as depreciating assets, bought low, and ran them into the ground. But even my ICE-loving sons encouraged me. I'm retired, could afford it, and it will probably be the last vehicle I ever buy. But not many are in that position. Certainly not enough to make a whole industry healthy.

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