Your post tends to indicate that the situation will be static over the next 10 years, it won’t be. Every year the governments will be raising the bar, imposing higher and higher penalties on non-compliant manufacturers. What doesn’t look cost effective now will look very much different when all those penalties kick in.
The only way a new administration would be able to cause a change of course is if they can stip away California’s right self regulated emissions and seriously doubt congress will try that again.
EV dislike seems to be bi-partisan near me. I have a friend that is very liberal and a friend that is very conservative, they want to kill each other 99% of the time, but the one place they agree is they don't want to buy EVs. My gf works with a woman who is a liberal activist, at every protest you can imagine, but she sends my gf a constant stream of links for articles saying how EVs are bad. My friend is trans and terrified of a change in the executive branch for personal reasons, but said she will never buy an EV. I'm not sure who is the mastermind behind EV fear in the U.S., but it is unlike anywhere else in the world. Politicians on both sides like votes more than they care about the long term environmental impacts of ICE, if this sentiment continues, the U.S. will keep kicking the can down the road. I fully expect us to be near the bottom of the ICE to EV transition list.
The one thing our governments are good at is kicking the can down the road. Like I said, I'd be happy to be wrong. But when I think about the level of tech required to meet the needs of medium and heavy duty trucks and what is currently in development. I just don't see it happening on the time scale CA wants it to happen. Time will tell.
We must run in different crowds. I hear some pushback, but it is pretty mild and I tend to get a lot of folks eager once I tell them about / show them my Lightning.
For those who actually use the capacity of heavier duty trucks (i.e. commercial use applications), I suspect there will be some kind of waiver.
I would be pleased to see this.
I'm certainly pointing out small sample size types of observations, but I can say with some certainty this would extrapolate well for regional sentiment. You can even see it across states where some have huge credits for EV purchases and others have large penalties in the form of higher EV registration costs.
You kind of have this backwards, it’s the manufacturers that are going to be penalized, not the purchasers. The manufacturers will have no choice but to dramatically increase the cost of ICE vehicles to cover the cost of the penalties. If the manufacturer is willing to produce it and the purchaser is willing and able to pay for it, there won’t be any restrictions on buying smoke belching ICEs, of course you might get a lot of tickets in cities that have smoking vehicle ordinances.
For the restrictions, I was thinking more about the aftermarket modifications to make them run dirty and put out think black smoke.
You know it’s funny when anti EV folk travel abroad. They see things in Norway or even Germany and marvel at the benefits and how good the EV world brings. But they won’t give up their gas. More like they resent feeling forced to do something better. Oh and they love believing all the FUD they see in the US news. Unfortunately we are being left behind. We have a fraction of the number of ev offerings they have in Europe or China.
Fundamentally disagree that the current Lightning does not meet the needs of most truck buyers. I'd argue it absolutely does. What it doesn't meet as well are certain specific edge cases. Ford has better data than any of us on its buyers and their actual use cases and I've no reason to doubt their claim that 95% of their customers drive less than 174 miles per day in their trucks.
The F150 comes in three different styles, Regular Cab, Super Cab and Supercrew Cab, the F150 comes with 5 1/2, 6 1/2 and 8 foot beds and the F150 is available as either 2WD or 4WD. The Lightning is only available is Supercrew Cab configuration with a 5 1/2 foot bed and 4WD. Do you really think everybody wants or can afford a Supercrew Can pickup with a 5 1/2 foot bed and 4WD?
To be honest, being able to securely keep my clubs in the frunk has been really nice for hitting the range after work.
