Order bank opening date for Lightning

[Maxx]

I don't know exactly what you're asking by "point of conversion".. but I would expect Ford to send out some demo models for dealers to conduct test drives, etc. I think that is a given.

Do I think they will have them at all(or even most) dealers before the order banks open this fall..no I do not. First adopters are probably gonna have to risk it a bit until supply starts to build up.

Thanks.

By point of conversion I meant when reservation convert to order.

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[shutterbug]

Thanks for very helpful response. Do you know if Mach-E folks were given a date range for delivery at conversion point? And if it was accurate? I assume there will be a significant time difference between first lightening reservation and the last person in line. That could mean $7500 difference in price if new Tax incentives do not pass.

Do you know if at the order time priorities get reshuffled based on who converts first? Or your spot in line will hold even if you are a bit slow in ordering?

Conversion date was late June — Early July. I got estimated build date in October. The build started in January (pretty close to estimate). Once the build started, I could look up the window sticker. After build date I got a delivery week, which, again, was pretty close.

I'm guessing there will be about 80,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. I'm also guessing that covers about 150,000 reservations. There will be lots of cancellations. With a $100 deposit, an awful lot of people said why not and have not thought it all the way through.

 

[shutterbug]

Do you expect at the point of conversion dealers will have something to test drive or everyone will order based on Ford's youtube videos?

I Seriously doubt there will be any demos (either for test drives or media) until Jan. As long as deposit is refundable, what does it matter?

 

[Maxx]

Conversion date was late June — Early July. I got estimated build date in October. The build started in January (pretty close to estimate). Once the build started, I could look up the window sticker. After build date I got a delivery week, which, again, was pretty close.

I'm guessing there will be about 80,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. I'm also guessing that covers about 150,000 reservations. There will be lots of cancellations. With a $100 deposit, an awful lot of people said why not and have not thought it all the way through.

Great info. I am hoping you are correct. At #130,000 that would put me in 2022. Anything to watch out with the dealer from your experience with Mach-E?

 

[shutterbug]

Great info. I am hoping you are correct. At #130,000 that would put me in 2022. Anything to watch out with the dealer from your experience with Mach-E?

I'm sure it's been covered elsewhere in the forum, but 5 things:

1. Deposit is refundable
2. No ADM
3. No mandatory add-ons (nitrogen, wheel locks, etc)
4. Will accept x-plan pricing
5. Pre-order accessories you actually want (wind deflectors, seat covers, additional keys)
   • MME came with only 1 FOB. I ordered one from someone else, and had dealer program it at delivery

These apply to all cars not just Ford or EV. I also do 2 things

• Before talking to finance guy, get a pre-approval from your local credit union, so you have backup financing in case dealer gives you grief
• With ordered car schedule an appointment with finance guy a couple of weeks before delivery and go through all of the numbers and expectations without being pressured

[edit] Almost forgot. For delivery, prepare a checklist for your walk through. For MME, @ChasingCoral prepared and posted a super detailed checklist. For my taste it went above and beyond, but it's better to be more detailed than necessary than less than necessary.

 

[greenne]

Conversion date was late June — Early July. I got estimated build date in October. The build started in January (pretty close to estimate). Once the build started, I could look up the window sticker. After build date I got a delivery week, which, again, was pretty close.

I'm guessing there will be about 80,000 Lightnings sold in 2022. I'm also guessing that covers about 150,000 reservations. There will be lots of cancellations. With a $100 deposit, an awful lot of people said why not and have not thought it all the way through.

FWIW my reservation was June 19th and IF (big if) the reservation numbers are sequential that puts me around 203,700.

I realize its all hypothetical and YMMV but figured I'd put it in perspective.

 

[shutterbug]

FWIW my reservation was June 19th and IF (big if) the reservation numbers are sequential that puts me around 203,700.

I realize its all hypothetical and YMMV but figured I'd put it in perspective.

When I said 160,000 reservations, I didn't mean 150,000 total. I meant the first 150,000 reservations will have a shot at the truck in 2022, and that 80,000 be actually shipped in 2022. That's just a SWAG. There will also be lots of abandoned orders, that will be sold off the lot.

 

[gorwell]

When I said 160,000 reservations, I didn't mean 150,000 total. I meant the first 150,000 reservations will have a shot at the truck in 2022, and that 80,000 be actually shipped in 2022. That's just a SWAG. There will also be lots of abandoned orders, that will be sold off the lot.

I personally doubt they would be able to ship 80K( they could certainly sell that many)

Deliveries don't start until "Spring 2022" --- March - May basically.

Say they could start shipping in April. So, there's 9 months of deliveries in 2022.

Currently, they are making about ~6K Mach-E's/month. src: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...electric-mustang-exceeds-gas-powered-pony-car

Each F150 is between 2-3 Mach-e's in terms of Battery Size, which is the biggest limiting factor for production -- otherwise, it's just a F150 which they can pump out like ~60-70K/month.

I think it's unlikely Ford is going to manage much more than 6K trucks /month for 2022 -- Plus Mach-E, Plus the EV Transit. That's a lot of batteries. I would peg them around 50-60K in 2022.

This is all assuming the chip shortage is basically over by February when production actually starts.

I am hoping they start in March though as I am "first" in line and want it now

 

[shutterbug]

Deliveries don't start until "Spring 2022" --- March - May basically.

I'm thinking June.

I personally doubt they would be able to ship 80K( they could certainly sell that many)

InsideEVs guestimated 80,000
https://insideevs.com/news/508668/ford-f150-lightning-production-limited/

 

[Maxx]

I'm sure it's been covered elsewhere in the forum, but 5 things:

1. Deposit is refundable
2. No ADM
3. No mandatory add-ons (nitrogen, wheel locks, etc)
4. Will accept x-plan pricing
5. Pre-order accessories you actually want (wind deflectors, seat covers, additional keys)
   • MME came with only 1 FOB. I ordered one from someone else, and had dealer program it at delivery

These apply to all cars not just Ford or EV. I also do 2 things

• Before talking to finance guy, get a pre-approval from your local credit union, so you have backup financing in case dealer gives you grief
• With ordered car schedule an appointment with finance guy a couple of weeks before delivery and go through all of the numbers and expectations without being pressured

[edit] Almost forgot. For delivery, prepare a checklist for your walk through. For MME, @ChasingCoral prepared and posted a super detailed checklist. For my taste it went above and beyond, but it's better to be more detailed than necessary than less than necessary.

This is like gold for me. I really appreciate it.

 

[greenne]

I'm sure it's been covered elsewhere in the forum, but 5 things:

1. Deposit is refundable
2. No ADM
3. No mandatory add-ons (nitrogen, wheel locks, etc)
4. Will accept x-plan pricing
5. Pre-order accessories you actually want (wind deflectors, seat covers, additional keys)
   • MME came with only 1 FOB. I ordered one from someone else, and had dealer program it at delivery

These apply to all cars not just Ford or EV. I also do 2 things

• Before talking to finance guy, get a pre-approval from your local credit union, so you have backup financing in case dealer gives you grief
• With ordered car schedule an appointment with finance guy a couple of weeks before delivery and go through all of the numbers and expectations without being pressured

[edit] Almost forgot. For delivery, prepare a checklist for your walk through. For MME, @ChasingCoral prepared and posted a super detailed checklist. For my taste it went above and beyond, but it's better to be more detailed than necessary than less than necessary.

Excellent summary shutterbug, thanks.

Max-- if you have a reservation I'd recommend you call the GM of the dealer and have a chat. Make sure there are no surprises when you show up to order this fall. Sure, you'd have to accept the GM at their word.. but if they a reputable dealer and value their customers I'd think you could be reasonably sure they act responsibly vs getting roasted on social media. IF they refuse to give you any assurance on pricing and AMD then you could find another dealer willing to play ball.

 

[gorwell]

I'm thinking June.

InsideEVs guestimated 80,000
https://insideevs.com/news/508668/ford-f150-lightning-production-limited/

80K quote came from an Investor analyst (Rod Lache), based on just parts capacity from plants that supply the Truck (I'm assuming the ICE F150 as he wouldn't know the exact parts of E150). I cannot find the exact way Lache came up with this 80K, but it seems more random than anything as it's just a belief that a plant could product X parts, therefore Ford can make Y trucks. Would also assume it ignores battery supply as Ford doesn't have capacity to build/supply them themselves.

 

[shutterbug]

Would also assume it ignores battery supply as Ford doesn't have capacity to build/supply them themselves.

I've no doubt that Ford's access to batteries in 2022 is finite. I just have no idea what that is.

 

[sotek2345]

80K quote came from an Investor analyst (Rod Lache), based on just parts capacity from plants that supply the Truck (I'm assuming the ICE F150 as he wouldn't know the exact parts of E150). I cannot find the exact way Lache came up with this 80K, but it seems more random than anything as it's just a belief that a plant could product X parts, therefore Ford can make Y trucks. Would also assume it ignores battery supply as Ford doesn't have capacity to build/supply them themselves.

I thought the 80k/yr. was specifically based on SK innovations battery production capacity - for everything else Ford can build like crazy - they make about a million F series a year.

BlueovalSK (partnership between Ford and SK innovations) can produce about 40GWh of batteries per year now (ramp up to more). I believe VW is also using SK Innovation so I am not sure how much of that Ford gets - 50k/yr Mach-e's would use about 5 GWhs of that. 80k Lightnings would use ~12 GWhs

 

[shutterbug]

I thought the 80k/yr. was specifically based on SK innovations battery production capacity - for everything else Ford can build like crazy - they make about a million F series a year.

BlueovalSK (partnership between Ford and SK innovations) can produce about 40GWh of batteries per year now (ramp up to more). I believe VW is also using SK Innovation so I am not sure how much of that Ford gets - 50k/yr Mach-e's would use about 5 GWhs of that. 80k Lightnings would use ~12 GWhs

Mustang Mach-E is using LG batteries this year. I think Transit does as well. This could all change, but these kinds of things don't turn on a dime.

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