Are we losing the EV Revolution?

[davehu]

[Yawn] I think government has done more to harm the “EV Revolution” than help it, through tax credits that manipulate the free market by vehicle price caps, domestic content requirements, and purchaser income caps.

Forget “green energy” for a moment. The discovery and development of the lithium-ion battery has changed our lives for the better. It has enabled cellphones, tablets and laptop computers, drones, practical cordless power tools, powered wheelchairs, etc., etc. It was inevitable that someone would take a computer and a big lithium-ion battery and connect them to an electric motor, add wheels, and use the contraption for getting around. Disguise it to look like a car, so we can drive it on the highways.

Let’s leave “climate crisis” politics out of EVs. People are buying these early EVs today on their merits as transportation (you can’t convince me that most people are willing to spend $40-$60k of their own money to “save the planet.”) The superior concept of the electric drivetrain automobile has been hijacked and co-opted by climate-change wackos and the irrepressible Left. I own three EVs (two purchased without tax credits), and would prefer them even if they contributed to climate change!

Exactly!

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[davehu]

I'm not sure who "we' is, but NO, EVs will be the vast majority of cars sold in 20 years.

Ford/GM/etc. screwed up because they assumed they could get the EV price bonus that Tesla was getting forever. They didn't stop to think that covid pricing was unsustainable. Then Tesla took their 20% net profit and used it to wreck everyone else's pricing. What is really concerning is Ford/GM/etc. might not find the will and energy to really compete (Jim Farley seems to get it) and they might give it all to Tesla and Chinese companies which something I don't want to see happen.

Currently, the entire car market is in trouble. And EV growth is still high.

Battery prices are projected to drop something like 11% a year and EV drivetrains to reach price parity with ICE drivetrains before 2030. Battery tech will get better. The charging network is getting better.

ICE is going to look dumb in 10 years.

more like 30 years. The entire US has almost 300 million vehicles and only 2 million of them are EV's. that's 298 ICE for every EV.

 

[davehu]

Remembered this just now:

was never a simpson fan but that's funny right there, I don't care who you are!

 

[lightspeed]

30

Yes. Very possible. I don't know what the exact timing is. But I know what's coming down the pipe in battery tech.

In 30 years we'll have electric airliners too.

 

[Jseis]

That already exists with Bolt

Under $0.10/kWh is unlikely for many places around the country. Cheaper DCFC is also unlikely for the foreseeable future.

That only works for single family homes. There needs to be a solution for apartments and condos. My mother's condo has a pair 6kW Blink chargers that charges $1.00/hr for up to 6 hours. That's not too bad.

We are already there, but for well over 90%, it's not necessary.

Sure and a lot of people could ride an e-bike. Cars are an aspiration though not always necessary. High fuel prices where I live have essentially halted commuting for low wage earners. Average car prices at $45K are only affordable as used cars and used cars are in demand. $.40/KWh is 7X my home energy price. My ‘62 VW had 300 mile range. And the Bolt-Volt-was not a marketing coup.

Inflation basically increased everything by 15%+ in the last few years. And the technical complexity of BEVs coupled with the nascent development of a growing tech will eventually drive prices down whereas right now BEVs and their service support infrastructure is not fully developed. Given home/multi family home construction costs, I don’t see 100 unit complexes dropping in tens of chargers. Much less an extra 240V 50 amp service for every unit because it won’t work on two story walkups. The charge at work model makes more sense than charge at home as the latter’s peak use is evening and morning.

I’m just as curious as to how the markets respond as our choice to have 2 BEVs only works for us because: Garage-charge at home, cheap power, we can afford them by converting ICE equity (2-vehicles) into BEVs. My wife says “I’ll never go back to a gas station again”.

 

[Solar_EE]

Yup. I like my Lightning because it's smooth, quiet, comfortable and fits my needs being a truck that finally has lockable storage besides the bed with a tonneau cover (front trunk). I don't operate under any illusion or belief that my truck is better for the environment or that I am somehow more virtuous for owning it.

I got it because I like it, simple as that.

Regardless of environmental science or policy the reality is the more the government pushes, the more people will resist. If it was all just incentives, that's great, but the more state and potentially the federal government punish or disincentivize buyers from purchasing ICE cars, the more pushback they will receive.

Early internal combustion engine cars were unreliable, inconvenient and dangerous, while steam engines were much more user friendly. But eventually technology improved, costs came down and the ICE won. I'd argue if the government had stepped in and attempted to influence the market it could easily have discouraged public adoption and delayed progress by several decades.

With EVs you can implement light incentives, but beyond that, let the free market decide and when EV tech is truly ready, it will take off.

You don't mention the trillions each year in OIL incentives! Huge tax write-offs and subsidies still going on today as the world chokes to death on the pollution from the ICE vehicles.

Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022 or 7.1 percent of GDP. Explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs) have more than doubled since 2020 but are still only 18 percent of the total subsidy, while nearly 60 percent is due to undercharging for global warming and local air pollution.

 

[WhipSticks]

Yeah. It’s beyond the pale to claim that EV subsidies are killing the industry while at the same time fail to point to the real elephant in the room: oil and gas subsidies. The writing is on the wall. EVs are better and cheaper to operate, and just like solar and wind, will win the price war too. We just have to rapidly evolve out of this “roll coal” mindset.

 

[Grumpy2]

It is shocking and true, but so disappointing... Oil Companies donate huge sums to keep that money flowing...

 

[Newton]

Adding a 240v/50A outlet for each unit’s parking space would basically be a rounding error in a large (new construction) electrical contract. It wouldn’t really be the right thing to do - prewiring for a group of smaller amperage EVSEs that can load share and possibly be managed by a third party would probably be preferable. Some European countries already have massive numbers of chargers in their parking garages.

 

[WhipSticks]

The kinds of apartment complexes with allocated parking is a manageable retrofit solution. The problem, really, is that much urban parking is street-based, and unallocated. This is a difficult situation that probably won't be addressed until getting a recharge is a 5 - 15 in affair. It can only be addressed using spaces much like gas stations in cities. Folks there simply won't charge at home at all. Cities are already more expensive that burbs or rural environments, and the need for commercial charge points that can serve the community will only add further to the disparity. This will be a major challenge in urban planning.

 

[RaptorEV]

Eh, this "revolution" is one of hype only. I tried to buy an EV, but there were none that I liked as much as the ICE vehicles. I've bought three new vehicles in the past 18 months, each over $60K. In each case, for my intended use case, the EV options were just either lame, low-quality, or way too expensive. The only two I actually enjoyed driving were the Lightning and the Taycan, but the Lightning is not reliable enough yet, and the Taycan combines poor reliability with ridiculously high pricing. So I bought three Lexus ICE vehicles. At this point, they were just the best options, by far in each case. EVs are extremely expensive for what you get, and I live in SoCal and have enough solar that charging at home would be free. Even then I just couldn't pull the trigger on any EV. I think there are many who feel likewise.

Also, all of these mandates about % of vehicles sold being EV are going to be pushed out indefinitely. The voters just ain't gonna take it. Mark me.

 

[invertedspear]

How about an EV with a battery that can be swapped out in 15 minutes for a fully charged one, instead of having to wait for an 80% 30-45 minute charging? Like NIO has done in China?

Where are the brainiacs when you need them? Playing video games in their parents basements?

The braniacs know that this doesn't make a lot of sense. I think it works well for motorcycles and scooters in population dense areas. The batteries are small and able to be changed by hand.

It requires a major amount of engineering costs to design the battery so that it's safe and easy to slide in and out of the vehicle.

It requires manufacturers to all agree to a spec on the battery. So our energy hog trucks are using the same batteries as the eco box Bolt style cars. Let's assume that we'll have 2 batteries in our trucks as the frame will support it, while most exo-box cars will just have one.

It requires significantly more expensive swapping stations, as we now need a robot to move these massive batteries. Robots will require more maintenance than even the current chargers and EA can't even maintain them.

If the station can fast charge the batteries and it still only takes 30-45 min to charge them and the station can swap them in 15, then the busiest stations will need to have 4 batteries per stall on hand, 8 if we assume they may service many trucks. so that's $40-80k of inventory per stall just in batteries. And they'll degrade quickly because they're always fast charging. If they're slow charging they'll need many more batteries in their inventory. On top of that cost, they'll also still need the charging infrastructure to keep charging the replacements.

Swapping is DOA for cars. The costs will never justify it. It could be a vanity project someone like Musk would entertain, but I don't see it ever going wide spread.

 

[MickeyAO]

Battery swapping does work great for BYD in China. Most in the US think this is a great idea UNTIL you start talking about ownership and battery health. Are you really going to give up that brand new battery you just bought on a new car for an unknown battery? How old is the swap? What is it's SOH?

 

[WhipSticks]

Battery swaps are DOA. There is too much happening on the research side, and it's happening fast, in regards to battery chemistry and engineering. Battery swap infrastructure, if it started today in the US, would be obsolete before it achieved a break-even point. Batteries will be smaller, lighter, higher capacity and have a rapid charge rate relative to today's products before a widespread battery swap system could be deployed, within vehicles and on the road.

 

[lightspeed]

Battery swaps are DOA. There is too much happening on the research side, and it's happening fast, in regards to battery chemistry and engineering. Battery swap infrastructure, if it started today in the US, would be obsolete before it achieved a break-even point. Batteries will be smaller, lighter, higher capacity and have a rapid charge rate relative to today's products before a widespread battery swap system could be deployed, within vehicles and on the road.

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Lithium batteries with 3-5x the power density of current mass produced batteries are achievable near term.

Lab batteries with other chemistries go all the way up to 40x the current power density (so far) which is roughly the same as the energy density of Jet-A fuel.

Imagine a 200kWh battery in less than 100lbs!

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